OK to fold this turn? 88 OTB.

[gehrig]

this is horrible

just call down on the flop

MAKING THE POT BIG SO U CAN MAKE ZOMGAWESOME FOLDS IS THE WORST THINGS U CAN DO IN POKER.

[swong4444]

Kong, it's about 100 simple calculations which gets complex fast. It's Friday and I'm bored so here goes... Your second calculation (the other way to view it) doesn't make sense to me. Your first one looks good.

What is your equity on the turn?

1. Give villain a range. So, what hands does it make sense for villain to have given the action up until this point? This is mostly a guess, and your hand reading will improve w/ experience. To keep it simple, let's say that villain's range is only 4 types hands A2/44/KsT/QsJs. In reality, this list will be a lot longer.

2. Figure out your winning chances against each hand in villain's range. This is an exact number.
vs. A2 - 25%
vs. 44 - 23%
vs. KsT - 70%
vs. QsJs - 0%

3. Figure out how likely villain is to have each hand. These are the numbers you got from your "arse" in your post. If you assume that your hand range for villain is correct, then you can actually calculate the probability that villain has a specific hand by looking at the combos. Plus, it doesn't hurt your "arse."
A2 - 3 aces * 4 twos = 12 combos of A2
44 - 3 fours remain = 3 combos of 44
KsT - 1 king of spades * 4 tens = 4 combos of KsT
QsJs - 1 queen of spade * 1 jack of spade = 1 combo of QsJs

So, the total number of combos is 20.
The chance villain has:
A2 = 12/20 = 60%
44 = 3/20 = 15%
KsT = 4/20 = 20%
QsJs = 1/20 = 5%

4. Now, calculate your total equity vs. villain's entire range by weighting each equity. This is the sum of
(equity vs. a hand) x (probability he has that hand)

Equity vs. A2/44/KsT/QsJs = (vs. A2 = 25% * 60%) + (vs. 44 = 23% * 15%) + (vs. KsT = 70% * 20%) + (vs. QsJs = 0% * 5%) = ~33%.

So, your total equity vs. A2/44/KsT/QsJs is about 33% in this example. The pot is 4BB on the turn (assuming you call the flop) and it will cost you 2 BB to see a showdown. 33% of the time, you win 5BB for an EV of 5/3 bets. 67% of the time, you lose 2BB for an EV of -4/3 bets. Since you win more than you lose, you should call down against the range that we gave villain (which isn't right, but is good for the example).

I hope this makes sense, and I apologize if I screwed up any maths. It's a super simplification, but it's important to understand how your hand compares vs. an entire range. If you practice enough of these examples, then intuition starts to take over. Cheers.

[Donkey Kong]

Thanks a lot for taking the time to work those numbers. I havent really been cranking numbers much, but it seems it could be worthwhile just to get used to doing some ultra-fast evaluations to make better decisions at the tables.
Math looks right to me [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[cdlarmore]

I dont raise this flop, if u get 3 bet your left wondering whether u even have any outs...
I think your better off calling flop and turn bet, and prob the river....

thats just how i play er though, i am interested to see what the rest of the posts will say

[Guruman]

I'd tend to cap that flop, as tag types in a fourhanded game can have any scared non [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] pair or pp there, or they can have a pure flush draw, but rarely both the way that you do. If its an ace then so be it, but I don't tend to see aces play this way (they like to checkraise).


given that you called, don't ever fold. lots of action on mono flops = scared one pair hand a lot. Sometimes its a made flush. Usually its 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or some crap.

No its not ok to fold here.

your flush draw has to be dead and you have to be behind to an ace here to make the fold. This means that he has to specifically have Ax,9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]-K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] more than 90ish % here. Given the pf and flop action - uh, no.

nope.

no.

[Donkey Kong]

[ QUOTE ]
No its not ok to fold here.

your flush draw has to be dead and you have to be behind to an ace here to make the fold. This means that he has to specifically have Ax,9-K more than 90ish % here. Given the pf and flop action - uh, no.

nope.

no.


[/ QUOTE ]
I guess this is a good line of reasoning. I actually folded the turn, and started beating myself as to why I played it like that. As you say, its very likely I have a live draw or that I'm ahead, so I should get to showdown here.

I used to be really weak-tight before, and these situations were always a problem. I've given these situations a bit of thought, and our discussion sure has made the picture clearer.
Thx for the responses
[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
DK