theory - pls check my reasoning

[SplawnDarts]

Even if we take all your assumptions at face value, this is hugely -EV. It'll be obvious if we put numbers on it

Let's assume your raise is to 4BB, his raise is to 12BB, you call 8BB and there's 1.5BB dead in the pot for a total of 25.5BB in the pot.

Now, it's 5:1 against an A hitting. In 5 cases, you lose 12BB total, and had 4BB of sunk costs when you called the re-raise, for a net loss on the re-raise of 8BB. That means you need to win 40BB in the other 1 case where the A falls to break even. But the pot isn't 40BB, so there's no way you can acomplish that by bluffing. If you assume you could bluff him out of the pot @ 1:1 odds with a 12BB bet (optimistic, IMO) you would expect to make slightly less than 7BB on the bluff, which isn't even close to the 40BB you need.

To be fair, this analysis doen't take into account the cases where you hit 2 pair, a FH, low trips, or a straight. But the point is that you're facing a huge defficit from the preflop play that your postflopflop play can't begin to make up. Even if you stacked him for 100BB every time when one of miracle hands hit, you would need to hit the flop hard 6.5% of the time to make up the ~6.5BB you're behind after the call and bluff, and every single one of them would then have to hold up. That just doesn't happen.

Moral of the story: playing bad cards OOP for a re-raise is bad poker. But stated that way, you probably already knew that [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[PhantomGoose]

Tell me you're not the same Splawndarts from Harmony Central

[Gonso]

[ QUOTE ]
Tell me you're not the same Splawndarts from Harmony Central

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't suppose that other splawndarts is a compulsive liar and fake who who needs to argue with everyone constantly? Also is that him in the picture?