Are we calling down too much? - Page 2

TJO · #11 03-07-2007, 09:05 PM

Few days ago KK finally stopped being a losing hand for me after I won a couple of big pots with it. But had I found a few folds here and there, I it would look even better. And I don't think I'm being result oriented here. There's no point pissing away 2BB when you have a very strong feeling that the opponent has you beat. I think that we (as a forum) might have gone beyond folding too much and started to call down little too much. It's nice to see MrWookie and Fretelöo agreeing with me on this one.

Maybe it was stupid of me to voice this kind of concern. It's probably better to call down a little too much than to fold little too much. Maybe if I had asked "Am I calling down too much?" I would've gotten more answers and more discussion. Who knows? and more importantly who cares? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

All I know is that it will take some time before the ASS brand on my forehead wears off. But I don't mind. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

(And I will not be posting any results on my poll thread because I don't want to bump that crap. I think you'll see the votes by midnight.)

Thomas Newton · #12 03-07-2007, 09:11 PM

This thread is timely for me - there's a balance to be found between pay-off-wizard and fold-monkey but I can't hit it.

I definitely need to have a break and review my game because I'm on borderline tilt. I see so much advice, some conflicting, I need to read and think more, and definitely play less, cos I'm pumping out the hands hoping something will click but it's not happening.

I'm playing a profitable game at 25/50c but I'm spewing like nobody's business at 50/1. I should probably multi at 25/50 but I'm trying to improve not just make bigger tiny monies.

When I think I've made a bad play or failed to see something obvious I can't describe the feeling - maybe you know it already - but it's putting me off playing.

Here's a hand from tonite's session. I think it's correct to call it down but I'm spraying chips all over paradise with this line, over and over again.

No read on villain.

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (5 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S · #13 03-07-2007, 09:31 PM

holy crap.....

hand 2 call down.

hand 3 raise turn.

hand 4 3bet turn.

and no, 'we' are still folding way too much.

TJO · #14 03-07-2007, 09:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm playing a profitable game at 25/50c but I'm spewing like nobody's business at 50/1. I should probably multi at 25/50 but I'm trying to improve not just make bigger tiny monies.

[/ QUOTE ]I have the same problem when moving up in limits. I want to prove myself that I'm not playing scared and that's why I end up betting and raising everything and that leads to tilting.

Point Blank · #15 03-07-2007, 10:12 PM

it doesn't really sound like you are appling a range to your opponent's play

folding too often will get you into big trouble against someone who might not be watching (too much) porn while playing

HAND 1

looks like a fold

FWIW ... you just folded to my pocket Eight (it's easy to bluff this against a TAG who caps preflop and will bet fold the flop)

HAND 2

villain's play looks retarded ... totally trying to move you off a hand (the flop also looks like you could be free carding AKs and he doesn't want you to take a free card ... also, this guy could even be bet.fold aces)

I'll say it's 50/50 raise/calldown ... if the guy will fold a worse hand raising isn't a good option (unless he'll fold a better hand)

HAND 5
easy fold if you know the player ... but folding against an unknown in a game full of complete retards is a no-no

TJO · #16 03-07-2007, 11:26 PM

I appreciate your comments Point Blank. There's lot more metagame stuff happening at little higher limits that I don't know much about. So it looks like it's better that I just keep calling down most of these hands because the higher I move in limits the better the results will be. Because there will be more bluffing etc. Maybe against some predictable players at my limits I can make a few "big laydowns".

Most of these hands were against unknown villains so it was very hard to put them on any kind of range. I try very hard to put opponents on ranges and I have made lots of silly pokerstove calculations to learn what different hand ranges look like and how my hand compares to them. I still can't claim that I'm any good at it. But I'm working hard to improve.

seano34 · #17 03-08-2007, 05:12 AM

This whole call the river/fold the river argument seems to be getting over complicated.

Surely the point of what we do when we analyse each individual river decision is to identify where we made mistakes from an EV perspective.

If you can apply a range to a villain's holdings then you can assess quantifiably whether your call/fold decision is correct.

Give villain a range, calculate the EV based on that range, and then make a decision accordingly. This is all part of the skill we are trying to learn.

As we get better we are able to narrow down villain's range - but the point is apply a range, come up with a number and stick with it.

For instance there was a hand on here earlier where the Hero was faced with a call on the river after one villain had raised and then two other villains called on a very drawy board with a huge pot. A few people suggested calling as the pot was laying like 28:1

Even if you put a genourous range on each of their holdings and think you beat 30% of each villain's range (which I thought was generous anyway) - to beat ALL 3 to take the pot would require 0.3*0.3*0.3 = 3.3% chance we are good. Which is an -ve EV call in that case.

Applying 'rules of thumb' like "Call when the pot is huge" or "Fld when the pot is small" is too simplistic. Every decision should factor in:

The size of the pot AND
The likely range of the villain.

If the number you come up with is +EV - Call if not then fold.

Todd · #18 03-08-2007, 10:40 AM

THinking about this thread while playing last night, I noted two hands where the Donk bet, and I knew with near metaphysical certitude that he had what he was representing..I knew beyond all doubt that I was beaten, called, and of course, lost.

I know that the Sklansky theory is that the biggest mistake you can make is to fold incorrectly on the river, since it costs so much when you fold wrong, and you save so little when you call wrong.

But still, when does this become a leak, if ever?

Todd

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 4 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4SB, 4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2BB, 4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, SB calls.

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5BB, 3 players)
SB bets...Hero?

---------------

The table was VERY tight, with almost every PFR being folded around. In response, I loosened up my PFR requirements a bit.

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
3 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4.5SB, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3.25BB, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5.25BB, 2 players)
BB bets, Hero?

seano34 · #19 03-08-2007, 10:53 AM

Hand One: You need to be good 17% of the time to call profitably and I think that for an unknown with no read at least some percentage of the time this is a bluff/A9/9x. What percentage depends on your reads

Hand Two: Same again.

My point about the range issue and the 'rules' about calling for one bet is - say you could tell with near perfect certainty that in a 50BB pot that you were beat (~99.9%) would you call the monster pot?

Obv as we get better at applying ranges we can narrow holdings and get a more robust estimate of the EV of the call, but the decision should be based on our reads, the action and the pot size rather thsan a rule that you have to call for one bet.

TJO · #20 03-08-2007, 12:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This whole call the river/fold the river argument seems to be getting over complicated.

[/ QUOTE ]Nice post seano but you've misundestood the situation a little. I'm wasn't talking about river calls/folds. I was talking about taking the calldown line from the flop or turn onwards that usually costs us 2BB. Maybe it's also known as the WA/WB line.

[ QUOTE ]
Surely the point of what we do when we analyse each individual river decision is to identify where we made mistakes from an EV perspective.

[/ QUOTE ]That's a good point. My approach was "I couldn't find any damn winning hands on my PT so why the [censored] am I calling all these hands down?". So it was a n00bish results oriented approach.

[ QUOTE ]
If you can apply a range to a villain's holdings then you can assess quantifiably whether your call/fold decision is correct.

Give villain a range, calculate the EV based on that range, and then make a decision accordingly. This is all part of the skill we are trying to learn.

[/ QUOTE ]This is hard to do against an unknown. Of course against a known tight/passive player it is easier to find a fold than against a maniac.

[ QUOTE ]
Applying 'rules of thumb' like "Call when the pot is huge" or "Fld when the pot is small" is too simplistic. Every decision should factor in:

The size of the pot AND
The likely range of the villain.

If the number you come up with is +EV - Call if not then fold.

[/ QUOTE ]That's just the problem. I think some of us (including me) are not looking enough at these factors and are not trying hard enough to put the villain on any kind of range. In a tough spot when we find ourselves lost facing a sudden donk/raise and we choose the easy path and just call down. It hurts to fold a hand but it also hurts to think that you've just folded to a bluff.

I don't want to become the official spokesman for weak/tight play and I think there's some metagame value in calling down. But at lower levels this metagame value is not very big. We're usually playing ABC123 poker and our opponents are not doing any fancy plays either. So there's also one more factor that we have to consider: our table image. If we are known to c-bet our whiffed overcards all the way to showdown all the time, some of our opponents will pick up on that and might raise us when they hit a pair of deuces on the turn. If we start to fold always when we're facing sudden aggression, our opponents will pick up on that too and they'll start to bluff more against us.

My guess is that ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S bluffs quite a lot and plays very aggressively and that way he induces more bluffs from his opponents which makes calling down profitable for him. That's probably true with Point Blank also. I on the other hand play more weak/tight (16.8/8.4/1.3) so when I'm betting I usually have a hand. So maybe if I start to play more aggressively the "problem" will partly correct itself and calling down becomes more profitable.