2+2 overvalues favorites, creating mispriced markets

[thing85]

Thank you for your further analysis - I do appreciate it. The only problem I have with shorting contestants is a lack of funds in WSEX, but that's a whole other issue.

In your opinion, even if I own 20 shares of Melinda at an avg. price of $9, I should sell her? WSEX's juice makes it a pain in the ass actively buy and sell short-term. By your logic, no one is smart to be holding Lakisha and Melinda right now, due to the fact that they are overvalued.

I have asked you this already, but would you mind sharing your current portfolio with us?

[llabb]

Also note, I am not saying that Lakisha and Melinda don't have much chance or should be underdogs, that would be silly. I think they deserve to be frontrunners, with a good chance that one of them may win. But they are still clearly overpriced imo.

There is no AI market precedence for this iirc. If someone has time, they can check back threads to see if anyone was ever priced this highly, but afaik, no favorite has ever hit the 30's in the first two rounds of the competition.

And Carrie was in reality a bigger favorite to win than either Lakisha or Melinda. Simon even proclaimed her the winner almost from the get go. She had no real competition towards the beginning iirc. Bo came from nowhere (no audition shown even) and eventually became the clear #2.

And yet Lakisha and Melinda have been priced higher than her iirc. You can say that people have adjusted and that the market has been inefficent every single year except this one and is suddenly correct now, but it seems more likely the other way around.

[llabb]

Also, some disagree with the favs being overvalued, for example Melinda currently, and I can understand that thinking, because she deserves to be the frontrunner right now. But then you have to give what you think fair odds are. And one of those posters said 5-1, perhaps even 4-1 or better, but 3-1 would be a bad bet.

That translates to fair odds being a price of 17, perhaps even 20 or better, but 25 would be a bad bet. And that's from someone disagreeing that Melinda is overvalued.

So, to be constructive, I think that the top of the market is overvalued, but still deserves to be the clear frontrunners. That means that I think that Lakisha and Melinda as of now should be in the high teens. The top one of them after a blowout performance in the low 20's at best. If they continue giving blowout performance after blowout performance, with their images improving, then they would increase in value as the competition goes on. But that needs more time to establish.

So the current value would be to short the very top, and buy back in the teens or low 20's. It seems contrary, but is just a matter of price. That is what smart money would have done with Lakisha after week 1, even though she was the dominant favorite and people were proclaiming her as the winner already, do not sell, buy buy buy.


If you simply want to buy and hold, then hopefully you were in those contestants from the beginning. For example, curtains bought them early, and even though he thought they had a huge edge to win when combined, he realized they had shot up super-quick, and apparently sold off for profit. (No connection to him or knowledge of what he does, just going off public posts.)

If you did not hold them earlier but bought them after great performances, then in the teens, it was a good buy, low 20's questionable, and high 20's overpriced, with 30's way overpriced. You should be able to get them cheaper later, if all you want to do is buy and hold. It was true for Lakisha last week, and probably Melinda this week, although no one can say what the market will do with absolute certainty. I'm not a guru or self-proclaimed expert, just an analyst giving pricing evaluation in his opinion. I'm just trying to be helpful here, with some pricing analysis, but people seem to be taking it the wrong way.

If you are a new-to-AI bettor and just want to take the person you like, no matter the odds, then go ahead. Take that contestant at 50 if you like, do whatever you want. I don't want that contestant to win, and then someone telling me, see, I told you, I should have bought, but you told me to hold off. But I am simply saying that you are getting a very bad price to do so, and past experience/historical results confirm that.

[pete fabrizio]

I think a good cautionary tale should be Elliot last year. He was in the doldrums for most of the season and I'm sure people thought he was "overpriced" at 4 or whatever he was. Then as the endgame approached, everything changed. Elliot had a total knockout performance in the round of 4 that basically eliminated heavy favorite Chris (who had a sub-par week), and suddenly it looked like Elliot had a real chance to win. Some observers and pundits even predicted it at that point (Elliot was the one great singer left, the reasoning went). That this was a real possibility was confirmed when AI said that the vote going from 3 to 2 was within a couple tenths of a percent.

Actually Taylor isn't a bad example either. He was stuck around 11-12 for most of the season while Chris was up there in the 30's, and a lot of people thought he was overpriced, had no shot, couldn't sing, etc.

[revots33]

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I think a good cautionary tale should be Elliot last year. He was in the doldrums for most of the season and I'm sure people thought he was "overpriced" at 4 or whatever he was. Then as the endgame approached, everything changed. Elliot had a total knockout performance in the round of 4 that basically eliminated heavy favorite Chris (who had a sub-par week), and suddenly it looked like Elliot had a real chance to win. Some observers and pundits even predicted it at that point (Elliot was the one great singer left, the reasoning went). That this was a real possibility was confirmed when AI said that the vote going from 3 to 2 was within a couple tenths of a percent.

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Thing about Elliott was that he was ALWAYS a great singer from the beginning. Simon called him "possibly the best male singer we've ever had" after his 1st performance. He followed that up with an unbelievable "Moody's Mood for Love", and the buzz started building. He didn't have the fan base but the talent was there from the beginning.

I've heard nothing from any of the guys so far to make me think they are even CLOSE to Elliott in singing ability, which is why I'm not betting on them. The singing ability has to be there first, and Melinda/Lakisha are on another planet talent-wise from the guys.

Right now my portfolio is almost entirely Lakisha/Melinda. Their current combined buy price is 58, which factors in a 58% chance that one of them will win, which seems about right to me based on Dialidol numbers, the quality of their competition, and their voices.

[GrannyMae]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think a good cautionary tale should be Elliot last year. He was in the doldrums for most of the season and I'm sure people thought he was "overpriced" at 4 or whatever he was. Then as the endgame approached, everything changed. Elliot had a total knockout performance in the round of 4 that basically eliminated heavy favorite Chris (who had a sub-par week), and suddenly it looked like Elliot had a real chance to win. Some observers and pundits even predicted it at that point (Elliot was the one great singer left, the reasoning went). That this was a real possibility was confirmed when AI said that the vote going from 3 to 2 was within a couple tenths of a percent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thing about Elliott was that he was ALWAYS a great singer from the beginning. Simon called him "possibly the best male singer we've ever had" after his 1st performance. He followed that up with an unbelievable "Moody's Mood for Love", and the buzz started building. He didn't have the fan base but the talent was there from the beginning.

I've heard nothing from any of the guys so far to make me think they are even CLOSE to Elliott in singing ability, which is why I'm not betting on them. The singing ability has to be there first, and Melinda/Lakisha are on another planet talent-wise from the guys.

Right now my portfolio is almost entirely Lakisha/Melinda. Their current combined buy price is 58, which factors in a 58% chance that one of them will win, which seems about right to me based on Dialidol numbers, the quality of their competition, and their voices.

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IMHO, elliot never had a shot, nor even a good voice. i absolutely repect your idol "know" revots. you have been dead-on with most things. on elliot, we can't disagree more.

[revots33]

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IMHO, elliot never had a shot, nor even a good voice.

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LOL I remember from last year you didn't like E. I had him and Taylor in a 50-1 exacta for top 2 last year, needless to say I was pissed when McPhee beat him out by like .00000001 percent.

Elliott's new single/CD is coming out soon, will be interesting to see how it sells. I probably won't buy it because it's not my style of music. Still love his voice tho.

[govman6767]

Since Lakisha is the best singer vocal wise AI has ever had it's hard not to rate her among the favorites

[soflat]

[ QUOTE ]
Since Lakisha is the best singer vocal wise AI has ever had it's hard not to rate her among the favorites

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I just listened to most of their mp3s.

Lakisha was incredible Week 1. After that quite average and she is making a lot of mistakes making it sound amateurish.

Doolittle consistently very polished sound. I hate to admit it because I like others a whole lot more.

Gina Glocksen really found her song last week. Sounded like a real recording artist. Reminds me of Kelly Clarkson.

Richardson is great too. I thought he was weird, but he sounds good without watching him.

Anyways, back to who is over/under valued. Lakisha over, Glocksen under.

I don't know what happens when Lakisha is out. Do others move up or is it all Doolittle?

[mynamewastaken]

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I don't know what happens when Lakisha is out. Do others move up or is it all Doolittle?

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Helps Doolittle a lot; hurts the other girls a moderate amount; helps the guys a little.