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#11
03-11-2007, 09:48 AM
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Lucky and unlucky streaks in 21
[ QUOTE ]
A player is most likely to go on tilt when he is both losing and taking bad beats. This is most likely to occur when the "count is low" -- i.e. a lot of small cards left in the deck. For example, if the dealer shows a 5, he's much more likely to bust when there are a lot of big cards left in the deck than when there are a lot of small ones. Thus, while freak 21-drawouts can happen at any time, they are most likely to happen when the count is low. This, of course, is the time that the player is at the greatest disadvantage, whether he realizes it or not. [/ QUOTE ] When the dealer has a stiff showing and does not bust, it's usually done through small cards. Which usually improves the running count (for the player). If the player goes on angry tilt then and raises his bets, he is doing the right thing. The player might also raise his bets when he miraculously makes a pat hand after drawing some 4 or 5 cards. This means small cards have come out. Raising his bet on the next round would be correct, even if done because he "feels lucky". Conversely, think about what happens when the dealer shows a Ten, and then produces another Ten or a natural, while players have been busting their hands trying to draw to a pat hand. The players get disappointed and start fearing the dealers' "abilities" to burn them; so they play "defensively" and lower their bets. From a purely betting scheme point of view, they are again doing the right thing by lowering their bets --out of fear. And the player is doing the wrong thing, generally, when it's him who gets those series of 20s or naturals, and keeps raising his bets --out of self-confidence. All in all, what you have described evens out. Players (of the casual persuasion, e.g. tourists) will "perceive" patterns where such patterns don't exist -- and they will raise or lower their bets according to imaginary signals from the cards. (Or from the ashtrays! Check out the TARGET "system".) This raisin' and lowerin' eventually comes to the same thing: Players succcumbing to the house edge and turning over to the house its mathematical due. Where you're absolutely correct is that the casual 21 player will go, more often than not, on tilt or will get unduly excited -- and therefore will give the house more action than he planned to. More action means more $$$ for the house coffers. And let's not forget that almost nobody plays Basic Strategy out there! So, the house edge is greater than the theoretical figure. Mickey Brausch 
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#13
03-19-2007, 11:56 AM
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Re: Lucky and unlucky streaks in 21
The biggest advantage casinos have at bj is bankroll management. Their roll is infinate and yours isn't. Even if you had a slight edge, with improper bankroll management you might still lose a lot of money. I know many bj players who play like this and even perfect stratagy w/the best counting system can't overcome a run of bad luck if you don't have the roll to ride it out.
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#14
03-22-2007, 10:47 PM
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Re: Lucky and unlucky streaks in 21
[ QUOTE ]
The biggest advantage casinos have at bj is bankroll management. Their roll is infinate and yours isn't. Even if you had a slight edge, with improper bankroll management you might still lose a lot of money. I know many bj players who play like this and even perfect stratagy w/the best counting system can't overcome a run of bad luck if you don't have the roll to ride it out. [/ QUOTE ] The only edge comes from the player acting first. 99.9% of the players will never be even close to overcome that
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