Naked Arbs vs Pinny thread

[MyTurn2Raise]

2 minds is better than 1...I don't mind you not being a snowflake

[murphstahoe]

won fresno, lost the total

2-2-1 -$8

[calmB4storm]

Here's what I have so far today...

NBA:
Charlotte o202.5 and u204.5
Golden State o195.5 and u198.5
Milwaukee o197
Milwaukee o99 (1H)
Detroit u99 (1H) *
LA Clippers u176.5
Charlotte +14.5 *
Golden State +11.5 *
Cleveland o181.5 and u182.5

MLB:
Florida +120
Toronto -120

NCAAB:
Santa Clara o144 *

* Means I may buy back later because of unfavorable line movement

[murphstahoe]

$11 - Oakland/Oral Roberts under 140 -110 at WSEX
over 140 +110 at Pinnacle

[freewheeler]

The term "naked arb" is a contradiction. If you can lose money, it's not an arb. But I do agree that taking the same price - or better - that pinny is willing to take about a given proposition is likely +EV. It just bears no resemblance whatsoever to arbitrage. GL!

[murphstahoe]

the origin of the term came from situations where I would place the first side of my arb, then the line would change before I could put in the second bet - leaving me "naked"

I decided that it would often be better to just take it in the shorts (without shorts?) than to close the position at a guaranteed loss. That given I spent time trying to decide which side moved their line faster. Finally I settled on betting at WSEX or Intertops first, then closing at Pinn if the middle still existed.

This would happen a lot because since I have a day job, a time consuming hobby (besides gambling), and a girlfriend, my primary gambling outlet was NFL Sundays when I would get some time off to go watch the Broncos. The initial wave of rapid line movement pregame, the crazy halftime line movement, then hoping the first games would end in time to get some of my BR back to put into action on the late games pregame movement, and 2nd half lines was crazy. And even with the NFL Sunday ticket it was problematic with halftimes because the middles would come right before kickoff, so I also had to consider which book (usually Tops) would take their line down first.

One exception to "Book the square book first" rule was NLF live betting. Intertops had larger vig but Pinnacles line movements were far too exaggerated. I usually booked the pinnacle side first. Arbing live betting was not for the faint of heart or bankroll.

[freewheeler]

[ QUOTE ]
I decided that it would often be better to just take it in the shorts (without shorts?)

[/ QUOTE ]
funny

[freewheeler]

I have always thought it would be definitely more advantageous in the long run to simply bet into square lines than to arb. Bit harder to manage your bankroll tho....

[MyTurn2Raise]

nah...just use a kelly/2 or kelly/4

the other book gives you a good estimate of 'edge'

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
I have always thought it would be definitely more advantageous in the long run to simply bet into square lines than to arb. Bit harder to manage your bankroll tho....

[/ QUOTE ]

Most people don't have the bankroll to max out the soft line with a straight bet. So, the solution is to straight bet and arb.