$2/$4 RAZZ A24 6th street decision

[*TT*]

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Before you throw your hand away getting 7.5:1 PO, you'd better be damn sure you have almost no chance to win. Ask yourself why seat 4 let you come again for a single bet on BOTH 4th and 5th sts.

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Without further information about the opponents, we can assume its because this is 2/4, seat eight (which acted first) has a better board and was WILLING TO CALL 2 BETS COLD on 3rd street. At this level your not going to see a lot of ramming and jamming, and in fact an expert player might not choose to jam here either if his read on seat is precise (I would jam if I held the right card combination if I was seat 4 with no additional read of course). Sorry, there is not enough information with this board to assume seat 8 has paired - yet. And the problem is on 5th street the two opponents still have the same board. Seat 8 comes out firing, seat 4 calls - even if he is a total idiot we have to assume he hasn't paired.

And here is the funny part - Seat 4 actually has a slight hand equity advantage, its hard to see at first glance but its true.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Razz Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 7AK8A
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
A34J9 33.01% 197,947 264
(8-8-)46J 36.56% 218,517 1,681
(8-8-)26J 30.43% 181,800 1,527 </pre><hr />
Note to chips - this is the best tool to perform an equity simulation vs a semi-random range link
As shown, I am folding 5th street because the hero has a slight equity disadvantage, and this hand will be hard to play multiway. Get out while the pot is still small, wait to play again another day. Playing on isn't horrible option, but its likely the hand will be hard to play on future streets - I prefer to make my multi-way decisions simpler.

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Even if he is an advanced player and was trying to slowplay on 4th it seems unlikely to me that he would do the same on 5th when you've shown you're willing to call a single bet and now he's caught bad. (Plus this is a 2/4 table, how many advanced players do you expect to see there?) You have to read him to have started with a 3-card hand since he completed UTG, but it's not necessarily a monster since he could easily have seen a playable hand and completed without looking at the other door cards. His passiveness on 4th and 5th leads me to believe he either started with a 6, 7, or 8 in the hole.

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As I previously explained showing the action, range of cards, and equal board we cannot come to this deduction logically. If the action was different on 5th street we might have unearthed additional clues, but as played we could not.

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There are 3 chances in 7 that seat 4 paired (where you have 56% eq) and the other 4 that he has an 876 and you have ~25% eq.

(3/7)(56%) + (4/7)(25%) = 38% average eq

We're assuming tho that seat 8 is coming again no matter what, so you only need to have 33% eq to make a bet or raise profitable. It's probably even more correct if seat 8 will sometimes fold.

SO in fact a raise in this spot is a VALUE RAISE and is definitely CORRECT.

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Once again your using your flawed logic from earlier streets to sway a decision down a non-optimal path. Your still assuming seat 4 may have paired, where I say we have little evidence showing a pair. Moving on your advice is to raise on 6th street when seat 4 has a likely made hand although he is at a slight hand equity disadvantage, and seat 8 has only 12% equity.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Razz Simulation
422,940 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 7AK8A
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
A34J92 47.87% 202,398 85
(8-8-)46J8 39.84% 168,190 604
(8-8-)26J6 12.30% 51,703 609 </pre><hr />
link

Raising increases the hero's equity to 60.69%, IF seat 8 can find a fold, and I don't think there is enough evidence that he can (or even enough evidence that he will fold without a raise). If seat 8 stays hero still has nearly 50% equity. If this all occurred on 5th street rather than 6th the hero would be a huge favorite and I'd advise raising all day long, but on 6th street with one card to come - PLUS the very real possibility that the hero will be re-raised its a very close decision. I would raise only if I think seat 8 will fold to a raise, or (and this is a little odd, hang with me here) if seat 8 is the type to never fold - adding dead money into the pot. If I feel seat 8 will call a raise, and then fold to a re-raise, then I'd rather overcall (remember its a possibility that seat 8 will fold on 6th street even if the hero doesn't raise).

In short our 6th street goal is to either
A) Fold out seat 8 immediately after the hero raises or (B) Assure seat 8 stays regardless of the ramming and jamming. If seat 8 calls a raise and then folds to a re-raise that is the sub-optimal solution, the hero would have been better off overcalling.

In the heat of the battle I probably would opt to overcall because equity range is not a precise science, its possible I am a slight dog to seat 4's range, and its possible that seat 8 folds with his paired board without any additional prompting.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[SGspecial]

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Before you throw your hand away getting 7.5:1 PO, you'd better be damn sure you have almost no chance to win. Ask yourself why seat 4 let you come again for a single bet on BOTH 4th and 5th sts.

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<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Razz Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 7AK8A
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
A34J9 33.01% 197,947 264
(8-8-)46J 36.56% 218,517 1,681
(8-8-)26J 30.43% 181,800 1,527 </pre><hr />
Note to chips - this is the best tool to perform an equity simulation vs a semi-random range link
As shown, I am folding 5th street because the hero has a slight equity disadvantage, and this hand will be hard to play multiway. Get out while the pot is still small, wait to play again another day.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

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I was wondering what took you so long to respond, but now I know you were writing a Megillah (Jewish term for a very long story). I'm not sure what your credentials are for posturing as the master of razz, but I think this one statement should clear up that smokescreen. You're running a simulation, in hindsight where you don't have to make estimates at the table, where you are shown your equity in a three way pot is 33.01%. Your decision is whether or not to call the close the action, getting 7.5:1 pot odds. And your decision is to fold because you're at a 0.32% equity disadvantage and playing this hand multiway will be too hard for you? To any decent poker player, that about says it all.

[*TT*]

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Before you throw your hand away getting 7.5:1 PO, you'd better be damn sure you have almost no chance to win. Ask yourself why seat 4 let you come again for a single bet on BOTH 4th and 5th sts.

[/ QUOTE ]

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<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Razz Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 7AK8A
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
A34J9 33.01% 197,947 264
(8-8-)46J 36.56% 218,517 1,681
(8-8-)26J 30.43% 181,800 1,527 </pre><hr />
Note to chips - this is the best tool to perform an equity simulation vs a semi-random range link
As shown, I am folding 5th street because the hero has a slight equity disadvantage, and this hand will be hard to play multiway. Get out while the pot is still small, wait to play again another day.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

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I was wondering what took you so long to respond, but now I know you were writing a Megillah (Jewish term for a very long story). I'm not sure what your credentials are for posturing as the master of razz, but I think this one statement should clear up that smokescreen. You're running a simulation, in hindsight where you don't have to make estimates at the table, where you are shown your equity in a three way pot is 33.01%. Your decision is whether or not to call the close the action, getting 7.5:1 pot odds. And your decision is to fold because you're at a 0.32% equity disadvantage and playing this hand multiway will be too hard for you? To any decent poker player, that about says it all.

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Exactly the response I was expecting, although I also expected you to disagree on 6th street. Spend a little more time learning how to read your opponents hand range (you did a poor job of that), and someday you will understand that 5th street is the spot to fold for moderate sized pots if your outs are moderately tainted in a multi-way pot - where you cannot accurately determine your opponent's hand range due to card duplication. As I said earlier most people would call because of the size of the pot and 1/3 equity, but I see that as a small error. 3 small bets is enough for me in this pot, I am not investing any more because I have enough lowball experience to know this is a potential trap situation that its better to avoid.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[SGspecial]

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Exactly the response I was expecting, although I also expected you to disagree on 6th street. Spend a little more time learning how to read your opponents hand range (you did a poor job of that), and someday you will understand that 5th street is the spot to fold for moderate sized pots if your outs are moderately tainted in a multi-way pot - where you cannot accurately determine your opponent's hand range due to card duplication. As I said earlier most people would call because of the size of the pot and 1/3 equity, but I see that as a small error. 3 small bets is enough for me in this pot, I am not investing any more because I have enough lowball experience to know this is a potential trap situation that its better to avoid.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

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Sorry to disappoint you with my brief response, but I'm a busy guy and only had time to address the most striking part of your post. I only gave such a detailsed response to Chips on the first place since he seems to be a very astute student of the game, and the correct play on 6th st. even surprised me a little when I worked it out. As far as reading opponent's hand ranges go, i think this is one point we actually agree on! I was figuring on both opps starting with two babies in the hole, as were you according to your sim. I was calculating probabilities in my post based on the read that seat 4 did NOT have a 3-card bike to start. Your sim accounts for the possibility that he did start that strong (and has slowplayed the whole way), but the hero STILL has 1/3 equity on 5th st. You're welcome to fold here (and I'd certainly say thank you if I were one of the opps), but I hope all sensible readers here can figure out the right answer given the evidence.

[PokrLikeItsProse]

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Your sim accounts for the possibility that he did start that strong (and has slowplayed the whole way), but the hero STILL has 1/3 equity on 5th st. You're welcome to fold here (and I'd certainly say thank you if I were one of the opps), but I hope all sensible readers here can figure out the right answer given the evidence.

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Your board is very important in razz. Especially in multi-way pots, when you are most likely behind and drawing, you are generally going to underperform your equity if you have a high card or a pair showing.

[HoldingFolding]

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Also, you have to factor in the chance that one or both of your OPPs thought you were playing Stud!


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QFT. Although I believe Razz hands being played during Stud is more common (at least in PS tournies)

[Wetdog]

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Also, you have to factor in the chance that one or both of your OPPs thought you were playing Stud!


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QFT. Although I believe Razz hands being played during Stud is more common (at least in PS tournies)

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I was in a HORSE tourney last night when the 1st stud hand was played like razz. They all 3 checked 5th 6th &amp; 7th when the winner had a full house!

[big e]

Fold 5th. With at best a rough 9 next hand if you hit perfect.

If your going to play a hand like this you also need to factor in what your op's are likely to do next hand and you should also calculate the possibility for 2 bets against you next hand, if the other players catch good.

Don't just consider whats best for this street you need to factor in likely plays next street and against 2 op's one is probably going to catch good and make it another bet to you.