I can beat a bluff

[psuasskicker]

[ QUOTE ]
J9, top two, even a set? This is a super standard value line nowadays, although its being used as a bluff plenty (by some) as well, certainly, but saying you'd call with marginals because you have a hard time putting Hero on anything is silly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, just can't. Set playing that weak? meh... I don't see many single flop pairs calling the flop that'd two-pair up. J9 maybe...MAYBE...but anything really strong not betting that river seems mega-risky to me.

Looks way too much like a missed something that doesn't want a show-down.

- C-

[Parlay Slow]

you must be really easy to play against psu

[psuasskicker]

lol... You're right. I try playing with my cards face up sometimes, just to make it a little tougher on my opponents...

[AJFenix]

[ QUOTE ]
but anything really strong not betting that river seems mega-risky to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

What? How is it mega-risky? Hes gonna bet hands that he'd call a good sized lead with. You risk getting checked behind by hands that wouldn't have called anyway [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Set doesn't have to reraise flop 100%, could obv check turn and checking again after it checks through is v. standard. QT could call the flop raise assuming its good majority of the time with the right dynamic going on. J9 you agree hero can have.

[psuasskicker]

I'm assuming unknown players here...

Two pair cr on the river looks really bad to me. How many hands that you beat will call? Most people here are calling me an idiot for saying I'll call light. How many better hands fold? None. Two pair bets the river, not check-raises. I've been playing NL HE for four years and I cannot remember one situation where I've seen a hand play out like this and the river cr was with two pair.

Sets don't have to reraise the flop but not betting the turn with a set would be awful. Villain's got a raisable hand on the flop, which means to me:
- Strength...he'll play back at a turn bet which we want.
- Draw...this board's full of them and giving the option at a free river is stupid.
- Weakness trying to steal...maybe they'll try to steal again and you lose some value, but chances of that seem pretty slim to me, esp. since they might play back at your bet.
And then after all that risky move letting all that get to the river without charging villian anything more, he won't bet the river? Once the turn checks through, you're letting him bluff at you on the river. What's the sense of raising that card? He either just got there with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or whatever or he's got garbage and won't call the raise.

J9 straight checking the turn seems about as risky as a set checking the turn. This one I'm not arguing much with though cause a river cr is fine since even though there aren't many worse hands that will call, well, so what, duh...

But on top of all that, betting the river doesn't seem all that bad either because if villain's gonna bluff at that board, how often is he not gonna bluff at a bet but would bluff at a check? Of course he'll fold sometimes when he would have bluffed, but it cuts into the odds further.

Still, good hands allowing that turn to check through with that coordinated a board is terrible and IMO extremely rare. Then the value cr on that river rather than just betting to make sure it doesn't check through makes it more rare. I'm getting 2.4 to 1 to call the river...yeah, I think he's vb in that exact fashion on that coordinated a board a lot less than what I need to make it worth it.

More plausible to me is that Hero called the flop raise with a mediocre hand, probably a draw of some sort, and checked the river cause he's got showdown value of some kind. Then I - villain - fire at the pot and that could easily be a weak bet, and calling can't really be good with Hero's weak showdown hand cause there isn't much if any value with my betting, so why not see if it's bluffable? The board's coordinated but not enough to fear I've got a super-strong hand, and unless I'm an idiot or I actually think through everything I just typed out I'm not calling that cr with a marginal holding...

I think I'd call a river cr with as weak as JT a pretty good portion of the time. Fault me if you will but that's the reasoning I'm using.

This of course changes dramatically if the board is say:
T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Now, the board is dry enough for sets to allow the turn to check through no sweat.

- C -