|
|
#11
02-24-2007, 09:32 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: OFFICIAL DONK 60% in a year THREAD
For anyone not clear on this....WaterOlay wants to separate a completely different Bankroll which he will GAMBLE with.
He's starting with $50, I'll put $100 into the fund. GL Note: If you're running 60% @ -110, you really shouldn't be betting $10 on each game, mathematically your expectation is just not at it's peak. Bet 16% of your bankroll on each pick to be maximally aggressive in increasing the bankroll size!!!! (so...6 picks instead of 5 would work better). 
|
|
#12
02-24-2007, 09:35 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: OFFICIAL DONK 60% in a year THREAD
[ QUOTE ]
For anyone not clear on this....WaterOlay wants to separate a completely different Bankroll which he will GAMBLE with. He's starting with $50, I'll put $100 into the fund. GL Note: If you're running 60% @ -110, you really shouldn't be betting $10 on each game, mathematically your expectation is just not at it's peak. Bet 16% of your bankroll on each pick to be maximally aggressive in increasing the bankroll size!!!! (so...6 picks instead of 5 would work better). [/ QUOTE ] ok so you are now saying we should use 6 picks instead of 5 to hit 60% and bet less/game? why would 6 be better than lets say 7?
|
|
#13
02-24-2007, 09:46 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: OFFICIAL DONK 60% in a year THREAD
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] For anyone not clear on this....WaterOlay wants to separate a completely different Bankroll which he will GAMBLE with. He's starting with $50, I'll put $100 into the fund. GL Note: If you're running 60% @ -110, you really shouldn't be betting $10 on each game, mathematically your expectation is just not at it's peak. Bet 16% of your bankroll on each pick to be maximally aggressive in increasing the bankroll size!!!! (so...6 picks instead of 5 would work better). [/ QUOTE ] ok so you are now saying we should use 6 picks instead of 5 to hit 60% and bet less/game? why would 6 be better than lets say 7? [/ QUOTE ] Well, assuming you are 60% in your picks. You get the maximal EV by wagering 16% of your entire bankroll per 60% bet with -110 odds. I love to gamble, but betting when you know your EV is lower is something I just can't bring myself to do. If you think you are capping @ 62%, then a 20% bet is better. I say 6 as opposed to 7 because 16% if the MAXIMUM gamble we should be making on any 60% pick @ -110. So if we increase your picks to 7 and distribute the money over that...now we are gaining in the risk aversion department and LOSING in the EV department...which goes completely against the point of this thread. I do believe you want to GAMBLE with this separate BR as much as possible. I believe Kelly betting is very sound so I don't take the time to re-do the numbers in my head, I just run the kelly calculations and make sure I never bet more than what Kelly Betting strategy recommends. Like Naj mentioned earlier...most sportsbettors do better betting .25 what kelly recommends, so by betting kelly with this system we are indeed maximally gambling.
|
|
#14
02-24-2007, 09:56 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: OFFICIAL DONK 60% in a year THREAD
ok 6 picks it in then. Luckily I can bet cents [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
I am leaving the $10 bet from Dartmouth since it won though [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
|
|
#16
02-24-2007, 10:10 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: OFFICIAL DONK 60% in a year THREAD
[ QUOTE ]
Cmon it's just $10. [/ QUOTE ] LoL, my BR for this is $180 now. So $30 a pop. lol
|
|
#19
02-24-2007, 11:23 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: OFFICIAL DONK 60% in a year THREAD
Since I only win about 40 percent of the bets I make should I bet $10 on 5 games a week on the opposite of who I like?
|
|
#20
02-25-2007, 12:21 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: OFFICIAL DONK 60% in a year THREAD
[ QUOTE ]
1-0 $59.09 2nd pick Celtics 2nd Half -1 $10 Well thats great. I got it -1. Half a second later it goes to .5 [/ QUOTE ] 1-1 $49.09 Unless a miracle happens but Im headed out so Im posting it as this.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
