QQ, 14 left, winner take all - Page 2

beenben · #11 02-23-2007, 08:07 AM

well, don't underestimate your opponents. they may not be good at cash games, but some of them probably know how to play the end game of a tournament.

why do you think he's raising to 750? standard PF raise would generally be to 900 - 1200. Have the smaller raises been taking it down? or is this an aberration? Has the CL been playing tight? Has he raised from EP before? some type of a read would help you make this decision instead of just blanketly assuming that everyone else sucks billiard balls.

My guess is that "please call" means he does not want you to call b/c strength usually equals weakness. maybe he was getting out of line in EP and he wanted to protect his crappy hand? but more likely he has AK and he's worried about pairs or he has a small or medium pair. If he had AA or KK he would hope you would call and keep his chat mouth shut. However, i don't think his range is signifantly wider 7 handed than 9 handed. My range for him is AK, 22-JJ 80% of the time, air 15%, and AA or KK 5%.

Fiksdal · #12 02-23-2007, 08:13 AM

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What was your plan in dealing with a push when you reraised? Maybe better to flat call if you don't know what to do against a push.

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Can you explain the reasoning behind this?

betgo · #13 02-23-2007, 08:54 AM

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What was your plan in dealing with a push when you reraised? Maybe better to flat call if you don't know what to do against a push.

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Can you explain the reasoning behind this?

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This is a basic point Sklansky made in NLHTP and TPFAP. Before you make a reraise, you should have a plan for what to do against a reraise. You often don't want to raise when a reraise gives you a borderline decision. Often it is better to put in loose reraises with suited gappers or weak high cards or something that are easy to fold to a 4-bet and flat call with strong hands that are not monsters. Here flat calling with queens diguises your hand, so there is some advantage to playing that way. However, I would probably have reraised here with the queens and called a push.

betgo · #14 02-23-2007, 08:58 AM

The fact that villain is UTG and raised 2.5xBB is scary, and I think he has AA/KK often. However, given your pot odds, I think this is a call. Also, as a tournament donk, I can say that people 4-bet more in tournaments than cash games and the money is shallower, so you usually don't fold QQ preflop.

betgo · #15 02-23-2007, 09:04 AM

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No real reads on CL but, no offense to anyone here, whenever I play a tournament I basically give people no credit for any good at poker.

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I am grossly offended.

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Lol. This is like wearing a redsox jersey to a yankees games.

Whenever I post in cash game forums or BBV, I get all this about donkaments or whatever. People act like I am a total idiot who probably don't have my results.

There are more fish in a typical high buyin tournament than a similar stakes cash games. However, it may take some skill to consistently beat tournaments.

Cornell Fiji · #16 02-23-2007, 10:43 AM

This is a very easy call with your huge pot odds.

The villain would make this push with JJ+ and many players will push AK here too.

If he only shoves with AK half the time there are
6 ways that he can make JJ
1 way that he can make QQ
6 ways that he can make KK
6 ways that he can make AA
16 ways that he can make AK but since he is shoving it half the time we can count it as 8 ways.

So...

there are 27 hands that he is pushing here.

6 of the hands we are 82/12
1 hand we are 50/50
12 hands we are 12/82
8 hands we are 56/44

If he pushes these 27 hands our equity is therefore ((.22*82)+(.04*.5)+(.44*.12)+(.3*.56)) = .42

With 42% equity in the pot and huge pot odds we have to call with these huge pot odds, especially given the structure of this satellite.

Just because you called and he had AA/KK this time does not mean that it was incorrect for you to call. It was expected that he would have AA or KK 44% of the time, this was one of those times; unfortunate that you ran into a monster but even though it was expected that he would have that monster often you still need to make the call.

Obviously I am assuming that he pushes with each of these 27 hands. Sometimes he will fold JJ and sometimes he will smooth call with AA/KK but that involves another level of math that I am not willing to do by hand. I hope that the math that I did above shows how this is easily a call with the pot odds that you are getting.

Hope this helps,
Steve

AceLuby · #17 02-23-2007, 11:57 AM

Cornell, I think Villains range is wider than AK, JJ+ and I would expect AA/KK as often as 66/77. I think we're destroying his 4-bet pushing range and I call.

Cornell Fiji · #18 02-23-2007, 12:02 PM

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Cornell, I think Villains range is wider than AK, JJ+ and I would expect AA/KK as often as 66/77. I think we're destroying his 4-bet pushing range and I call.

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His range could definitely be 99+/AQ+ (I doubt it is wider than that) but I wanted to prove how, even with a tight range, a call is still +EV.

That said I completely disagree that 66/77 is as likely as AA/KK in this spot against a random guy paying $300 to sat in for a WSOP seat

AceLuby · #19 02-23-2007, 12:07 PM

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Cornell, I think Villains range is wider than AK, JJ+ and I would expect AA/KK as often as 66/77. I think we're destroying his 4-bet pushing range and I call.

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His range could definitely be 99+/AQ+ (I doubt it is wider than that) but I wanted to prove how, even with a tight range, a call is still +EV.

That said I completely disagree that 66/77 is as likely as AA/KK in this spot against a random guy paying $300 to sat in for a WSOP seat

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You don't think he would try to get some value out of AA/KK? I guess readless that's possible, but I would think that he would just re-raise or flat call PF, and not try to push someone out of the pot. Not saying he couldn't, it just seems not that likely.

WiltOnTilt · #20 02-23-2007, 02:08 PM

All,

Thanks for the responses. I understand and agree with the whole "don't reraise if you are unsure what to do vs a push", and honestly when I made the reraise I was happy to get it in, but then once he actually pushed and typed the "please call" into the chat, I started to reconsider.

In a cash game, with 30-something bb, it's an easy all in, I wasn't sure if it was the same in tournaments or not.

As far as his pfr, 2.5bb has sort of been the norm ever since the 50/100 level, so I wouldn't read into that too much.

Thanks to everyone who responded, especially Cornell and betgo. As you all could have guessed, he had AA and the pot shipped his way.

I just thought the chat was super weird... would he really type that in with AK or JJ ? seemed odd. oh well.

KoW