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  #11  
Old 02-21-2007, 05:03 PM
pokerpunchout pokerpunchout is offline
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Default Re: DialIdol

The most important predicting stats from DialIdol in past seasons have been the "Dial Idol Score" and "Busy percentage". By looking at these two score you get a very good idea of who is staying and going.
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  #12  
Old 02-21-2007, 05:06 PM
GrannyMae GrannyMae is offline
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Posts: 11,677
Default Re: DialIdol

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
no bug. sample size of participants too small. only a few contestants are statistically behind enough to make any valuable inferences.

[/ QUOTE ]

I realize the sample size is too small and because there are so many contestants they will largely be statistically grouped together. My point is not that these results are inaccurate but rather that I think they are incomplete. Look at the Geograph page. Almost half of the states have very little data. It is almost like the database got full at some point and quit updating. However, the Hard Graph kept updating until 3 AM. It is possible that data is contained in a separate database (or table).

This looks incomplete

[/ QUOTE ]

not incomplete.

there are no dial idol users in the states that show nothing.

as far as late updates, that can simply be dialidol confirming numbers before they list them.
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  #13  
Old 02-21-2007, 05:08 PM
LotsOfOuts69 LotsOfOuts69 is offline
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Default Re: DialIdol

On the predictions tab, they list a *score* which is very different from the *score* thats listed in the OP's hard analysis link.

which is which?
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  #14  
Old 02-21-2007, 05:16 PM
4Tay 4Tay is offline
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Default Re: DialIdol

The OP's hard analysis link are the raw data.

The predictions tab is more accurate in term of who's going or staying.
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  #15  
Old 02-21-2007, 05:16 PM
GrannyMae GrannyMae is offline
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Default Re: DialIdol

[ QUOTE ]
On the predictions tab, they list a *score* which is very different from the *score* thats listed in the OP's hard analysis link.

which is which?

[/ QUOTE ]

original link is how the contestant raked overall, in all of the scoring methods there are.

as far as which variable is ABSOLUTELY the most important, that would be the "% busy" for each contestant. the total votes and other variables mean very little.

this is the page to bookmark:

http://www.dialidol.com/asp/predictions/...nt&season=6
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  #16  
Old 02-21-2007, 05:19 PM
NoChance NoChance is offline
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Default Re: DialIdol

The predictions page is what is most important. Here you will see the calculated score that dialidol comes up with and also the predicted ranking. As Granny says, the sample size is not big enough to statistically separate the contestants and thus they are put into groups as to where they rank. The other screens are all just raw data and are new this year. I was trying to take a look and analyze them but I don't think I found anything conclusive.
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  #17  
Old 02-21-2007, 05:51 PM
LotsOfOuts69 LotsOfOuts69 is offline
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Posts: 1,303
Default Re: DialIdol

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On the predictions tab, they list a *score* which is very different from the *score* thats listed in the OP's hard analysis link.

which is which?

[/ QUOTE ]

original link is how the contestant raked overall, in all of the scoring methods there are.

as far as which variable is ABSOLUTELY the most important, that would be the "% busy" for each contestant. the total votes and other variables mean very little.

this is the page to bookmark:

http://www.dialidol.com/asp/predictions/...nt&season=6

[/ QUOTE ]

Those are very different from what is listed here, which DI claims to be the busy %

http://www.dialidol.com/asp/predicti...4&active=1

Edit: you have to unclick the *score* and click on *busy percent*
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  #18  
Old 02-21-2007, 05:58 PM
pete fabrizio pete fabrizio is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: big-ass yard
Posts: 2,250
Default Re: DialIdol

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On the predictions tab, they list a *score* which is very different from the *score* thats listed in the OP's hard analysis link.

which is which?

[/ QUOTE ]

original link is how the contestant raked overall, in all of the scoring methods there are.

as far as which variable is ABSOLUTELY the most important, that would be the "% busy" for each contestant. the total votes and other variables mean very little.

this is the page to bookmark:

http://www.dialidol.com/asp/predictions/...nt&season=6

[/ QUOTE ]

Those are very different from what is listed here, which DI claims to be the busy %

http://www.dialidol.com/asp/predicti...4&active=1

Edit: you have to unclick the *score* and click on *busy percent*

[/ QUOTE ]

The busy signal numbers alone are not a reliable indicator, because the west coast gets far fewer busy signals overall. So everyone that west coast dialidol users are voting for end up having artificially low busy signal %. DI corrects this for their overall "dialidol score" by only comparing west coast to west coast and east coast to east coast.
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  #19  
Old 02-21-2007, 05:59 PM
GrannyMae GrannyMae is offline
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Default Re: DialIdol

your link leads to overall score, graph style. my link is busy % raw numbers.
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  #20  
Old 02-22-2007, 02:42 PM
GrannyMae GrannyMae is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 11,677
Default Re: DialIdol

the dialidol numbers for the females are incredibly fascinating.

smart analysis would buy 50 antonella @ $2, and hope for a good performance soon that would result in a spike of her wsex numbers. the market vs. dialidol is completely contrary for this contestant in particular. the entire goal would be to sell her at $10ish.

could be the best $100 you ever put into play.
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