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#12
02-23-2007, 06:49 PM
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Re: Qualifying Matchups
[ QUOTE ]
Cris has Kahne +550 (the favorite) to win the race, and has Kurt Busch at +2000. How does this jive with Busch -130 vs. Kahne in qualifying? Is the value on Kahne in qualifying or Busch in the race? I suspect you will say Busch in the race, although I am not so sure about that. Edited to add: Pinny has Kahne at +623 to win the pole and Busch at +704. Then oddly had Busch at +2010 to win the race. What am I missing? Isn't qualifying pretty indicative of how the cars will perform in the race at a track like California? [/ QUOTE ] A large part of Busch being favored in qualifying is the fact that he sat on the pole for both races at California last year. Kahne is the favorite to win the race b/c of the way he dominated these types of tracks last year. Busch is probably the better value for the race itself but mostly b/c I don't see any value in Kahne at +550 (he tends to be too much of a checkers or wreckers driver). 
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#13
02-23-2007, 10:35 PM
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Qualifying Results
2-2 +0.15 Units
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#14
02-24-2007, 08:13 PM
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Re: Qualifying Matchups
[ QUOTE ]
Kahne is the favorite to win the race b/c of the way he dominated these types of tracks last year. Busch is probably the better value for the race itself but mostly b/c I don't see any value in Kahne at +550 (he tends to be too much of a checkers or wreckers driver). [/ QUOTE ] exactly why me and pops didn't put anything on him, and instead took jeff gordon at +1000...he's on the pole, and the odds are twice as good.. also on kyle busch at +1500...
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#15
02-25-2007, 11:24 AM
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Race Bets
Matchups
Jeff Gordon (+110) v Earnhardt Jr 1 Unit Earnhardt Jr (+120) v Stewart 1 Unit Martin (-110) v Truex Jr 2 Units Hamlin (+120) v Bowyer 2 Units Schrader (-135) v Petty 1 Unit Sorrenson (EVEN) v McMurray 1 Unit Outrights Kenseth +1500 1/2 Unit J. Gordon +1025 1/2 Unit
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#16
02-25-2007, 11:40 AM
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Re: Race Bets
Montoya Finishing Position Over 22.5 (-130) 2 Units
Kahne (+110) v Johnson 1 Unit Newman (+200) v Bowyer 1 Unit
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#17
02-25-2007, 04:29 PM
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Re: Race Bets
here's what I ended up with after staring at the screen all day.
carl edwards 18-1 kyle busch-140/burton truex+135/kyle busch martin+150/earnhardt (arbed some with earnhard-115) bowyer+165/kahne hamlin+120/j. gordon yeley-110/riggs kenseth+135/johnson truex+140/bowyer martin+145/earnhardt stremme-115/montoya harvick+145/kenseth stremme-140/b. labonte edwards-125/biffle mcmurray+105/newman The line movement in this sport is SICK.
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#18
02-25-2007, 04:55 PM
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Re: Qualifying Matchups
[ QUOTE ]
took jeff gordon at +1000...he's on the pole, and the odds are twice as good.. also on kyle busch at +1500... [/ QUOTE ] headed down to watch now, and noticed that again i was on the right side of the line movement, as gordon was +450 and busch was +1200 at closing on bodog... last week harvick also went from 15-1 to 12-1 at the last minute...hopefully those results continue this week!
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#19
02-26-2007, 12:29 AM
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Results
Today
Matchups: 3-6 -2.54 Units Outrights: 1-2 +6.00 Units Total: 4-8 +3.46 Units YTD (Cup) Matchups: 17-24 -8.07 Units Outrights: 2-13 +3.25 Units Total: 19-37 -4.82 Units YTD (Overall) Matchups: 25-32 -7.64 Units Outrights: 2-23 -4.75 Units Total: 27-55 -12.39 Units
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Linear Mode
