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#11
02-21-2007, 05:45 PM
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Re: It don\'t take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows
[ QUOTE ]
If he obviously has an A, why are you betting the river? This is a case of the 2+2 mantra: "If he's calling the turn, he's calling the river". [/ QUOTE ] Barry, this is exactly what I'm hoping he thinks I'm thinking. 
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#12
02-21-2007, 05:50 PM
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Re: It don\'t take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If he obviously has an A, why are you betting the river? This is a case of the 2+2 mantra: "If he's calling the turn, he's calling the river". [/ QUOTE ] Barry, this is exactly what I'm hoping he thinks I'm thinking. [/ QUOTE ] So in that case you want him to think that you know that he is calling, therefore you must be value betting so he'll then fold??
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#13
02-21-2007, 06:18 PM
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Calling the turn, then folding on the river
Not sure if it's indeed a mantra around here, to call the turn and then call the river. But I remember Sklansky (I think?) writing about this, and it's an important point.
In my game, there are a fairly large group of players against whom I can routinely and confidently call a hand on the turn and then fold to their river bet. Say I have A-J and the board on the turn is A-T-4-Q and a flush draw comes with the turn card. There are a group of players who will routinely raise or check-raise the turn with something like J-T with a flush or straight draw (usually in the Commerce 40-80), as well as with hands that are ahead of mine. If they bet the river, I'm 100% certain my one pair is not good. I don't even have to call every once in a while because they simply won't continue to semi-bluff once I call on the turn. They check, I'm good; they bet, I'm not. Relatedly, Clarkmeister (IIRC) once posted about the importance of, against certain opponents, betting the river in a continuation of the semi-bluff, so that they know, when they call on the turn, that they're going to have to decide what to do on the river as well. The more they suspect you'll be firing on the river, the more you'll be winning pots on the turn. These are among the reasons why I think the difference between fair players and good players is most manifest, at mid-stakes, on the turn; and that the difference between good players and great players, usually at higher stakes, is most evident on the river. BTW, I don't care much about the hand in question, the thread title enough makes this a candidate for POTY.
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#14
02-21-2007, 07:00 PM
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Re: Calling the turn, then folding on the river
[ QUOTE ]
In my game, there are a fairly large group of players against whom I can routinely and confidently call a hand on the turn and then fold to their river bet. [/ QUOTE ] I know those kind of guys too, but they're much more straightforward than most decent playing 2+2'ers. If I called with a decent/semidecent A on the turn, I'm not folding in this case HU for 1 bet.
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#15
02-21-2007, 07:12 PM
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Re: Calling the turn, then folding on the river
FWIW Hobbs paused for a microsecond before calling the flop, but called the turn instantly. I don't know if Dave picked up on this but it's worth mentioning.
Rob
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#16
02-21-2007, 07:26 PM
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Re: Calling the turn, then folding on the river
Side question: how often does the Mirage spread a 40 game? Did they have just one table or was there a must move as well? I was there last spring over a long weekend and never saw anything higher than 20/40, but admittedly spent more time at the Bellagio. TIA.
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#17
02-22-2007, 03:00 AM
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Re: Calling the turn, then folding on the river
[ QUOTE ]
Not sure if it's indeed a mantra around here, to call the turn and then call the river. But I remember Sklansky (I think?) writing about this, and it's an important point. In my game, there are a fairly large group of players against whom I can routinely and confidently call a hand on the turn and then fold to their river bet. Say I have A-J and the board on the turn is A-T-4-Q and a flush draw comes with the turn card. There are a group of players who will routinely raise or check-raise the turn with something like J-T with a flush or straight draw (usually in the Commerce 40-80), as well as with hands that are ahead of mine. If they bet the river, I'm 100% certain my one pair is not good. I don't even have to call every once in a while because they simply won't continue to semi-bluff once I call on the turn. They check, I'm good; they bet, I'm not. Relatedly, Clarkmeister (IIRC) once posted about the importance of, against certain opponents, betting the river in a continuation of the semi-bluff, so that they know, when they call on the turn, that they're going to have to decide what to do on the river as well. The more they suspect you'll be firing on the river, the more you'll be winning pots on the turn. These are among the reasons why I think the difference between fair players and good players is most manifest, at mid-stakes, on the turn; and that the difference between good players and great players, usually at higher stakes, is most evident on the river. BTW, I don't care much about the hand in question, the thread title enough makes this a candidate for POTY. [/ QUOTE ] Andy, this is a great post. Thanks.
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#18
02-22-2007, 06:09 AM
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Re: It don\'t take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows
[ QUOTE ]
Turn is the 2 of clubs. I bet because these two players will peel the flop with 5 outs, Hobbs calls with what is obviously an Ace. [/ QUOTE ] A 4- or 5-outer can almost call the turn too, given various aggravating and mitigating circumstances. I'm not necessarily convinced that he has an A here. It's also a large multiway pot and an A might want to protect its hand somewhere along the way, especially if there's another broadway card on the board.
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#19
02-22-2007, 12:01 PM
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Re: Calling the turn, then folding on the river
[ QUOTE ]
Side question: how often does the Mirage spread a 40 game? Did they have just one table or was there a must move as well? I was there last spring over a long weekend and never saw anything higher than 20/40, but admittedly spent more time at the Bellagio. TIA. [/ QUOTE ] It went twice while I was there from Friday through Tues. It was short for a while. A local said it was back at Mirage now. Time was $10/hr.
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