|
|
#11
02-18-2007, 05:03 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Easy $, long wait (Over a Year)
Pretty sure this is completely wrong. The way the Democratic primaries are set up this year, (all bunched together instead of weeks apart), it's going to be almost impossible for a dark horse candidate to slowly gain support like they could in the past. It's almost definitely going to be a name candidate, and the two name candidates this year are Clinton and Obama.
Given the resentment against the Republican party, I think either one of those candidates would be favored to win the general election right now were they nominated. Especially if the Republican candidate were someone like McCain who favors continuing the same Iraq war policies advanced by George W. Bush. 
|
|
#12
02-18-2007, 05:09 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Easy $, long wait (Over a Year)
iggy,
We'll have to agree to disagree. I don't think they're name candidates at all. I think those are the people that are being pimped (Clinton for close to a decade now) by media and others. I'm sure the old guard will be hesitant to see things change. Clarification: By name I mean people that are known to people who control purse strings, make donations, big movers in the party etc. I'm sure some of these guys are bitter about Obama's meteoric rise and for various other reasons. I personally like Edwards chances for nomination and winning it all, but we are >18 months out and so my only real position is don't bet anything.
|
|
#15
02-19-2007, 08:15 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Easy $, long wait (Over a Year)
[ QUOTE ]
On Intrade Bet: Al Gore to be Democratic Nom. in 2008 You can sell this at 8.4-5.0 return on investment. Why: Gore rules out bid for US White House in 2008 [/ QUOTE ] Didn't Obama do this too?
|
|
#16
02-21-2007, 11:14 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Easy $, long wait (Over a Year)
[ QUOTE ]
MrFeel, I agree totally on general. I'm a little less certain on nominations, but the dynamics of a general election strong favor fading these. Namely the fact that the South (where most blacks live) is also home of all the "racists" and whether or not they are diehard Klan members or just feel uncomfortable when they see a bunch guys standing near them in the mall in FUBU, the swing vote will find it easy to stay at home or check the box for protestant white guy. [/ QUOTE ] 1. The people who are not gonna vote for a candidate becasuse he's black weren't gonna vote for the democratic nominee anyway. 2. Obama's cultural identity has much more in common with the immigrant experience in america than that of a typical black american, and as such he is likely to draw heavy support of the hispanic segment. This will more than make up for votes lost due to his racial identity.
|
|
#17
02-21-2007, 11:24 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Easy $, long wait (Over a Year)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] On Intrade Bet: Al Gore to be Democratic Nom. in 2008 You can sell this at 8.4-5.0 return on investment. Why: Gore rules out bid for US White House in 2008 [/ QUOTE ] Didn't Obama do this too? [/ QUOTE ] Link?
|
|
#18
02-21-2007, 09:17 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Easy $, long wait (Over a Year)
[ QUOTE ]
Ha, one of the bets is for Schwarzenegger to win the nomination. I may put a few bucks on there and try to sell it just to see if there's a sucker that bites. [/ QUOTE ] If this is actually a possible bet, jump on it. S was born in Austria--Only native-born Americans can be President. I believe it's in the Constitution????
|
|
#19
02-22-2007, 11:20 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Easy $, long wait (Over a Year)
I have a considerable short on Hil at WSEX - she may be a favorite to win the nomination, but she definitely isn't that large of a favorite - I just wish the market would start moving a bit - I expect to see her contracts fall to at least 35 at some point in the campaign
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
