50/100, huge draw and I need way more chips.

[True]

can't villain have us crushed a lot on the turn and a lot of our outs no good?

[MDMA]

Eh, how exactly would that be? I would bet all our outs are good pretty much exactly 100% here.

[iRock]

Well if he has the nut flush draw, we are pretty screwed. I would incline to say he has us really behind here, however, and is hoping we hit the A (set or two pair). If that is the case, we are in a tough spot with only 8k here, and calling 2.5k more to hit hopefully 12 outs doesn't seem to great here out of position. If you are betting the turn, I fold vs a passive player and call vs an aggro one (Ive never played with newhizzle). I'd much rather check/call or check/raise the turn, though.

[TheWorstPlayer]

A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] are not good here anywhere near 100% of the time. And this spot really sucks. You can push, maybe you have some FE but I doubt it, he probably has aces up and will call your push. Or you can call, and push if you hit, but you probably won't get paid on a club so you're really just drawing to your flush with poor odds, and your gutshot. Or you can just fold, which is probably the best option, except Newhizzle is relatively new to NL I think and he's pretty aggro in general so I think you even have a chance of being ahead here so I dont really like the fold option... maybe best is push and pray. I dont really like calling OOP. But I really dont like this spot, so I wouldnt have bet.

[MDMA]

Uh of course I didn't included the board pairing in our "outs".

Also, iRock you clearly do not understand why I wrote as I did.

[IHateCats]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont like your turn bet

[/ QUOTE ]
Ditto. Stack sizes are wrong to use the scare card bluff and you've got such a truckload of likely good outs, esp 5 handed, I don't see the virtue in betting here, better I'd think to try and hit one of your outs rather than risk getting blasted off your draw with a CR or at least pushed to marginal calling odds which is what he did. As played, call and shove on a hit except paired board, obviously nut flush is in his range but I'd be surprised if he played it that way on flop and it's a small fraction of his range here.

[iRock]

[ QUOTE ]
Uh of course I didn't included the board pairing in our "outs".

Also, iRock you clearly do not understand why I wrote as I did.

[/ QUOTE ]

No you lost me, please clarify.

[MDMA]

Sure. Which nutflush draw raises this turn? None. ATcc has no incentive to do it at all.

[jlocdog]

MDMA,

What about the nutflush draw with meh kicker....A9c-. Now he has incentive to raise. He is trying to fold a bigger ace and since he has a monster redraw he won't mind getting it in if shoved on. I agree that ATc nevers makes this raise though.

[TheWorstPlayer]

raising this turn with nfd is pretty darn bad.