2 Pair - Berate me for ignoring a read

[CrMenace]

*Grunch*

I don't think I'm folding this hand for one bet on the river. If you called the river, you played it just as I would have.

[CrMenace]

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I am not ever folding this river though.

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Even given the flop cap? Perhaps if you just called the flop check-raise a river call would be in order, but as played?

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Meh, I could see villain hitting a pair and a draw on the flop and going nuts. Or thinking you're FOS and trying to out aggro the aggro. Or he slowplayed AKo. Or he's just gone nuts with a pair. These scenarios must account for ~10% of the time. I'm not folding this very reasonable hand for 1 bet on the river.

[DrModern]

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I am not ever folding this river though.

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Even given the flop cap? Perhaps if you just called the flop check-raise a river call would be in order, but as played?

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Meh, I could see villain hitting a pair and a draw on the flop and going nuts. Or thinking you're FOS and trying to out aggro the aggro. Or he slowplayed AKo. Or he's just gone nuts with a pair. These scenarios must account for ~10% of the time. I'm not folding this very reasonable hand for 1 bet on the river.

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Our read is that villain is passive.

[bravos1]

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When he caps that flop I estimate your chances of winning this hand at about the same odds as you hitting another Q or T [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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so 4/47 = 8.5%

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I think calling the flop is a better approach than threebetting and c/c the turn, you can open fold the river if he leads again.

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Now we're getting 9.25:1 to call. We only need to be correct 9.7%, so I think even using your analysis (guesstimate), it is pretty close.

[Zeldark]

This is very opponent depended. In any case, Check-raise capping is a sign of much strength. I don't mind the 3-bet too much, considering it is a blind steal situation, but once he caps it I get worried. Turn is an easy call. River is opponent dependent. I'd probably call against a more wreckless player, quickly shifting to fold as his status gets tighter/more solid (or even average for that matter). I think I fold against most opponents.

[nerdking]

the way you structured this, i know that you lost the hand, so I can't really make an objective response.

Villain is LPP CS, hero folds to aggression.

[allinonadraw]

I'm always calling the river here...villain could have a hand like KJ, QJ, or AT. Yeah, he probably has you beat, but you don't have to be ahead much of the time to make calling correct.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

your good >50% here lol its a heads up blind defense.

of course call....