AK, turn decision

[TFGoose]

Well, there's 470 in the pot and we have 1270 behind. If you're going to bet this thinking you have the best hand, I say put about 325 out there. That's a decent bet that doesn't give him the right odds if he's sitting there with a draw. If he raises you can get the rest of the money in if that's the plan. If he just calls, you can re-evaluate after the river, most likely pushing.

--TFGoose

[registrar]

Yeah, this makes me wonder about being happy to three bet the turn. Naturally the idea is to generate some fold equity but if we make a standard bet, and he raises, we won't have enough fold equity to get rid of two pair, which is what we want.

[kurtkatt]

ok, in this tourney i will never get 2p to fold i think. But for a general thought on it.

Anyway 1/3 is like 150, him raising us too 5-600. thats not gonna work? If we want him to be able to checkraise us small enough we would have to put out a really small bet here. Then our idea of charging draws something is gone.

anyway we might want to increase the likelyhood of villain to bluff us here no, or decide top raise with a worse hand
So i kind of like somthing in the 170-220 range?

[registrar]

Unless I'm missing something, we don't need to worry about charging draws at all here. We're drawing to the nut straight and the nut flush. He may have turned a broadway. We're simply betting for value.

You're right though in that, given the stacks, he's never going to fold two pair to a three bet. Nevertheless, he will call with worse hands so I think we bet here. If things turn messy, well, we'll have priced ourselves in. If we err, let's do it on the side of accumulation.

[rppkoz]

You're never getting better hands to fold and you're not folding to a push so I wouldn't worry about creating fold equity with a 3-bet. I would bet enough to setup a river shove. 325 sounds about right.

[kurtkatt]

ok, let´s move forward a bit. (although river isnt as intresting i belive but anyway)

I check behind on turn, my runner flush possibillites are hidden, so although im quite happy being all in on turn i expect 2p to work with me on river, if i hit, anyways. Plus i might get another bet out of something worse, kq, kx, at, etc... This might not be optimal as we have gone over.

River is 9c.

villain checks again. Ok, I don´t think he has got the q when he checks again. But do we try at push him off 2p or just check behind? Im not sure if we could push him of it here. Still got that 470 pot. thinks we will be called enough for a potbet or below that it isnt worth it?

[kurtkatt]

yes, i agree with this. Although not at the time, see river decision....

[kurtkatt]

if called im "never" pushing river unimproved.

[registrar]

That's pretty easy. Nothing we beat is going to call a bet and precious few better hands fold so we check behind.

Edit: are you folding two pair here? Following cc on turn?

[rppkoz]

You're missing a lot of value then (When the river bricks). What buyin is this?