Four to a flush...bet river?

[milesdyson]

Reread the hand. TT, QQ, or AQ with no diamond will raise the flop and bet the turn and river here??

[Thorv]

This guy was actually not such a decent TAG. I had only played about 30 or so hands with him, but he seemed to be tighter than a good TAG should be. This led me to think that he'd be hard pressed to call a river bet if he had a K, so check it was.

But if I am villain with AK<no diamond>, as a good TAG, I'm wondering if calling is the right play. I'd like to see some numbers on this, because this is definitely close.

[bung]

you're right.....I guess I've been playing too many games with too many bluffers, I don't know who's got what anymore [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Raised on flop, raised on turn, raised on river, and dude turns over Ac6c.....

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
This guy was actually not such a decent TAG. I had only played about 30 or so hands with him, but he seemed to be tighter than a good TAG should be. This led me to think that he'd be hard pressed to call a river bet if he had a K, so check it was.

But if I am villain with AK<no diamond>, as a good TAG, I'm wondering if calling is the right play. I'd like to see some numbers on this, because this is definitely close.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you're villain with AK no diamond, you suck bad at poker based on how he played his hand.

[Heisenb3rg]

I dunno, tough call but id actually probabily check..

Facts we know:

1)Villain has shown no strength up to this point in the hand.

2) Decent TAG raises UTG, that means his range is around 66+, KJ+, A9+, JTs, QJs, KTs+

3) He's checked the river, making it a little less likely he has a strong diamond.

On the flop/turn,
The hands that think they're probabily good but should play passivly are hands with a jack ,QQ . Unfortunatly we have two jacks so it makes him having a jack far less likely.

He played very passivly/poorly for a hand with a king in it, so I doubt he has a king.

There are also a lot of hands in his distirbution with a diamond that can get to the river on a draw.

Conclusion:
Had he been more agressive on the flop/turn, I would actually be more inclined to value bet the river here. But because he's been more passive on a board where there's not much to be passive with other than a medium diamond draw, i'd check.

IMO I can't think of a single hand that he could have where the way he played it is the best play (and will call a river bet).