My One Debatable Play At The Borgata

[leaponthis]

At BEST you have the proverbial coin flip if you push. If you call you and lose you have 34k - m of less than 7 - not panic time but one round away. If you fold you still have 40k - m of 8 - not panic time yet - maybe two rounds for a better situation. If he has any pair you are a huge dog. You still have the BB behind you yet to act. FI you call he may push. If you push he may wake up with a big hand.

The fact that the raiser is aggressive means to me there is a good chance he will make future plays with marginal hands. Also, I am assuming that you are very good at playing a small stack. The subjective parts of this problem such as your skill level and that of your opponents (raiser and BB) are difficult if not impossible to quantify. Although you don't have much waiting time left I believe that you should wait and see if you get a better situation to risk chips.

Considering all of the above factors I say fold. I only answerd this because I am interested in tournament play. This is a classic and frequent situation in my experience that one must deal with.

leaponthis

[Party]

No, I'm pretty sure at BEST he will fold and David takes his raise + the blinds.

[Phanekim]

In all your posts, I almost always advocate the more tight, nitty, weanie alternative.

Of course, more information needed.

But with what everything that was given, this is a push/all in. Since the button is aggressive and you probably have a tight image, i think an all in with your stack might be able to scare off most stacks.

Since he is aggressive and everyone folded to him on button, I would have to put his hand on a wide range. I also assume that he probably has somewhere around the average stack. In this case, an all in might scare him. Thus, there might be a really small range of hands he'd be willing to virtually lose 1/2 his stack over.

Also, I think at your stack at this juncture of the tournament, you stand very little chance at the money. It might be as good of a time as ever to push for it with so little action in on the hand. A push might also take out lower pairs that could dominate you. Would a 33, 44, 55 call in this situation? I highly doubt it.

Thats just my assessment.

[leaponthis]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure at BEST he will fold and David takes his raise + the blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]


Pretty sure are you? Of course you knew that I meant if the button called at Best it was a coin flip. Obviously the best thing that could happen would be for both the BB and button to call David's all-in and David win. If it is sarcasm you are looking for then let's get it on. Otherwise, let others answer the question since you don't seem to understand it.

leaponthis

[creamfillin]

Isn't this an ideal stop n' go? Granted the BB folds of course.

[thedustbustr]

cream, thats what i was thinking. i dont play tournaments and i hate doing ev calcs, but it would seem that if our "aggressive" button is cbetting most flops whether he hits or not, we would win a little more by pushing the flop than pushing preflop. at the cost of higher variance, of course. it also leaves you with the opportunity to ditch if you need to with m=7 to fall back on.

if i didn't do this i agree with dan.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
it also leaves you with the opportunity to ditch if you need to with m=7 to fall back on.

[/ QUOTE ]

What flops would we hypothetically be folding here?

[Piers]

550 players left so ignore that it’s a tournament. Button and big blind cover you of course?

Out of position I can see no reason to call, so push or fold?

EV(Push) = Pr(Button Fold)x12+Pr(Button Call) { Pr(Win|Call)45-Pr(Loss|Call)39 } – 0.7

The -0.7 = 0.03( 0.17x52-0.83x39 ) is a correction turn, estimating the effect of the live big blind who might turn up with a monster.

Possible numbers to try.

Assume button raises with 22% of hands.

If he always protects his raise, Pr(fold)=0, You are about 41% (=Pr(Win|Call)) against his, so substituting and your –EV.

Playing with the equation, I reckon the button needs to be folding around a third of the time before your push becomes right.

Well?

[leaponthis]

Figure that a guy from L.A can't lay a hand down. Hi Gabe, I looked for you at Hollywood Park last night. I will be at Commerce next few days. If you are there have me paged.

Vince Leapore - leaponthis

[Kimbell175113]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't this an ideal resteal? Who cares what our cards are?

[/ QUOTE ]

EDIT: Actually, your stack might be a little too big, in which case a fold is in order. But I can't imagine pulling a stop and go here is anything but the worst choice.