KK facing unexpected flop action

[threads13]

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As I said, during the hand I was giving BB credit for set and folded (which was obviously wrong). Oh well..next time...I'll make another mistake instead.

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For completeness, a set is much more likely to wait until the turn against an unknown. A set is certainly in his range, but I wouldn't be giving it full credit just yet.

[22pajo]

I think villain has top pair strong kicker (A9 or K9) often enough to warranty a call down here, especially given this comment:
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Another reason for my thinking that he's holding A9s is that he's been seeing me play pretty aggressively and taking down a few pots without showing.


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[calidris]

threads and pajo sums it up nicely and my thinking is also that there's a fat, juicy chance that he's got A9s and I handed him the pot on a silver plate with a fresh selection of flowers on the side. What can I say..I'm a generous guy....

[DigitalDeuce]

Sounds like a lucky 2 pair play, 52s or 95s. He came back over the top on the flop, if it's a set here I'd expect to see 222. Don't rule out a hand like QQ or JJ as well, if he figures you're got AK (more often than AA or KK) then he can call for the flop and see if an A or K hits, he figures he's good.

[calidris]

Can you see someone with 17% V$IP calling w 52s or 95s? QQ or JJ would likely reraise(PFR 8). As for the sets I still think it's more likely that he c/r with those or even smooth call the flop and raise the turn.

[nach0king]

Grunch: The idea that he would automatically slowplay a set is not necessarily correct for a guy of those stats as I sometimes opt not to depending on how the other guy plays; my AF is slightly higher, though.

Putting CO aside (as he seems to be a calling station, in this hand at least), I'd probably cap the flop, and (on seeing the turn card) re-raise the turn, then call down from there if you get more aggression. As you say, A9s is as likely as a set in this instance.

[threads13]

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Can you see someone with 17% V$IP calling w 52s or 95s? QQ or JJ would likely reraise(PFR 8). As for the sets I still think it's more likely that he c/r with those or even smooth call the flop and raise the turn.

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I wouldn't take this line of thinking too far because your stats are only over 30 hands. I don't start really considering the stats to be close until it gets over 50 hands. Of course, if you have been paying attention and can confirm that he is tight, then that is a different thing altogether.

[BigBadBabar]

yea don't fold [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[00Snitch]

cap that yummy flop.

if he donks the turn after you cap, then you can call down.

folding this turn makes me want to vommit. there are over 10 bets in the pot. you have an overpair. this board was made for KK.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

cap flop. raise/call turn.

raise that river

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I don't believe he has 2pair so that leaves a set and A9s.

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why would you not believe he has 2 pair?