WTO rules against US in Antigua's case

[BluffTHIS!]

Jooka,

The only thing working in our favour is that the US is heavily invested in the WTO process. Nonetheless, it does ignore/spin unfavorable rulings on other issues too. But it is still a piece in the larger issue that might ultimately work out for us in some fashion. The probability that it will impact US policy enough to make a change favorable to online poker might be small, but it's not zero, especially if the EU piles on.

[wpr101]

This is great news even if it is only a pyschological win.

[Jay Cohen]

The US can comply through legislative or administarative actions. I am not sure what they are talking about when they say "judicial." But I have a few ideas.

You are correct when you point out that the Appellate Body and the original panel made no distinction between horse racing and other forms of remote wagering. The US has consistently tried to spin it otherwise. I firmly believe that is why the US leaked this latest decision early, to get a jump on the spin.

What's funny is if you read the original Reuter's story, the US claims it is only responding to press reports. Well, prior to that same story, there were NO other stories out.

The trade world is watching. The US gets more out of the WTO than any other country. The EU, China, Japan, Taiwan, Mexico, and Canada have all weighed in on Antigua's side at some point in this process. The deveoloping world is also watching. The US wants concessions form all of the smaller nations. They tell them join the WTO and we are all on equal footing. Well the Antigua Gambling case is a real issue with those same nations.

I'm looking forward to seeing the upcoming Compliance Panel Report and seeing how it compares with the leaks of the USTR.

[schwa]

I think European Banks could put some pressure on The EU to pursue the matter. I also think a carve out for poker will happen in the next 12 months. It is not a end to the US deficit, but would increase tax revenue and open new trade markets for US companies.

[damaniac]

People really miss a lot. The point isn't so much that Antigua will bring the gov't to its knees as it makes it far more likely that the EU would win if it brought a case. If that happens, the EU would be entitled to a self-help remedy which would exact some cost on the US. Whether the possible sanctions are enough to tip things our way is another matter, but it's not simply a matter of the US deciding it doesn't want to comply and that's it. There's some cost there, at least if and when the EU gets involved.

[Reject]

[ QUOTE ]
I think its funny that people think a little island in the atlantic will get the US to change its prospective because the WTO says so. Its like seeing a chiwawa trying to bully a pit bull.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Emperor]

The United States already pays millions of dollars in WTO fines. This doesn't get reported by the US media. There is no public concern for how the US interacts with the WTO, because the public is left out of the loop. Even if the US was to lose, and a fine to be levied, it would have to be in the 10's of billions annually for the media to report it, or for the public to care.

Please contact the WTO with your opinions and suggestions here: http://www.wto.org/english/info_e/cont_e.htm

[bluesbassman]

I wish the Brits would send an SAS unit to rescue Mr. Carruthers, who is essentially a political prisoner here in the U.S. They would probably need to take out a handful of DOJ jackboots, which would be a good thing as well.

Yeah, I know, it will never happen, but one can dream...

[DrewOnTilt]

Good to see you again here, Jay, and thanks for chiming in. Keep the insights coming.

[latefordinner]

I don't believe that the EU will risk a bitter dispute process by getting involved in this one way or another. I think this could change however if prominent EU citizens start getting thrown in US jails for prolonged periods of time.