I want to make 10% per year for 30 years.

[gull]

Agreed. I think it's safe to guess that future returns will not be as high as past returns but also that the stock market will probably offer the best long term returns. There are many interesting papers on the equity premium and expected returns.

[squiffy]

Thanks for the updated Berkshire post Cat. It's interesting to compare that with the Vanguard figures given for the S&P 500. The Vanguard numbers are very deceptive. Instead of giving an average annual return, they give a cumulative return, whatever that means.

I would rather Vanguard provide me with an average annual return for the Vanguard 500 Index going back to 1976.

https://flagship.vanguard.com/VGApp/...FundIntExt=INT