wtf am i doing part 2

[mvoss]

I'll usually just check and call here. The pot size makes me wonder whether this is worth taking a shot at, but I don't think you'll win it UI often enough for this to be worth it against 3 players.

[jstill]

if ur the button are u calling with TT in his shoes?

I think people occasionally underestimate what villains are willing to fold in which spots, as we only see their cards when they end up making a "loose" call down on a not great board for their hand. So we assume they are always calling with every pair since thats what we end up seeing and remembering.*

Think about what u'd be willing to fold and how often in which situations. Most semi-reasonable villains likely actions will coincide with ur own probably more often than you think; even if their distribution is weighted more towards calling down lighter.

*not saying i'm right about the hand however.

[Guruman]

so after some reflection, here are my thoughts on the flop play:

1)

the button is the primary factor as I relate to the hand, and of course he's the one unknown player. Since he's unknown I can't peg him as maniacal or super passive yet and I'll have to guess at his possible actions based on the situation he's in.

On a flop this dry button’s hand is best broken down into the following ranges:

Group A) Monsters: AA, AK, KK, and highly discounted 66 and 77.
Group B) paired kings: KQ, KJ, etc.
Group C) under pps: 88-QQ
Group D) whiffed threebets: AQ-A8, and highly discounted non-A and K broadway hands.

2)

Given the situation, what is the button most likely to do with each group of hands?

A) I think almost all players fastplay here
B) I think almost all players put in a bet or raise to “protect” here.
C) unknowns are less predictable here. If I check, Aggressive players will bet again, passive ones will check through. If I bet, aggressive players may raise or fold, and passive players may call or fold.
D) another less predictable spot. If I check lots of players will not bother to continuation bet into a crowd in a huge pot. If I bet I’m strongly representing the K and lots of players will fold. Loose players will call, but even agro players don’t tend to raise. He’d have to be a flat-out maniac to raise here, and I don’t want to make a decision based on that assumption.

3)

Given all of that, what’s the worst calamity possible?

1) I check the best hand, button checks through a group D hand, and four people with scads of collective overcards get to draw on me for free.
2) I bet a losing hand, button raises a group A hand, and I draw dead (or deadish) to the turn.

What’s the best reward posssible?

1) I bet and fold out a group C or D hand from the button and /or some of my other opponents.
2) I check and call one bet back to me and suck out on the turn.

4)

After looking at the best and worst case scenarios, the following seems apparent:

-when button holds a group A hand the action will likely drive itself throughout the hand. The worst mistakes I’ll make are unprofitable peels, but those are balanced somewhat by the times he holds a group B hand and I make a profitable peel and suckout on similar looking action.

-when button holds group C or D hands I have the greatest opportunity to profit by causing him to fold out winning or alive hands in a pot this size.

-even an unknown button is pretty likely to causes the first calamity when he holds a C or D hand.

-even an unknown button is likely enough to fold and create reward 1 when he holds a C or D hand.



[/ QUOTE ]

All of this seems to add up to a bet for me here. A bet very strongly represents the King here because of the pf action. If I can fold out a C or D hand, clean up an Ace out sitting behind me while still profitably drawing vs a B or C hand, or gosh, even be valuebetting, I’ll show much more immediate profit than playing passively, assuming I’m behind, and hoping to suck out.

[unterfish]

*On probation*
So, I still think your play was just great.
It is so much better than just c/c.
If he raises, you're fine. You know where you stand.
OTOH, if you wait for him to c-bet, you essentially know nothing.

*On probation*

[bbbushu]

guruman,

you said it a lot better than i did.

great post.