McCain is toast

[Poofler]

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I agree. And if the new Iraq plan bombs, the "McCain surge" will destroy him.

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I hope you realize the current surge is not his plan. OPLAN 1003-98, the plan for the invasion of Iraq, called for 350-500K troops. These numbers were derived from lots of experience in the Balkans. We currently have 130K troops in Iraq. Do you think 20K more is really going to do anything? McCain has publicly criticized the small surge.

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"Sen. John McCain defended President Bush's Iraq plan on Friday as a difficult but necessary move, parting company with lawmakers questioning the wisdom of the military build up. "I believe that together these moves will give the Iraqis and Americans the best chance of success," said McCain."

Of course it isn't his plan. But, he's been vocal about more troops, and has generally backed Bush's recent decision. He's tied to it now, politically. If it fails, much of the public won't buy "oh, 100K more troops would have solved it". Bush, McCain, and any other surge advocate will be lumped together when judgment has passed on the new strategy. The public sees this very black and white. Less, the same, or more troops. Which are you for Mr. Politician?

[bills217]

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(takes off ACer hat)

He is indeed doomed. His only chance might be that there is a serious dearth of strong republican candidates. Giuliani and Romney both have major problems.

IMO Sam Brownback has a better chance of getting the nod than most people give him credit for.

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Brownback would be far and away the best non-Libertarian result for Libertarians IMO. (Possibly excepting Ron Paul who I don't know anything about yet.)

I think he's too hard-line to actually win, though. Obama or Hillary either one would make mincemeat of him in a general election unless he softens considerably, in which case he really wouldn't be a good result anymore.

[amplify]

He has definitely tied his fate to the success of this escalation, a huge miscalculation on his part, since it has 100% chance of failure.

But the appearance on MTP wasn't nearly as bad as OP made it out to be. McCain has this calm and centering about him and he's extremely relaxed. This doesn't make him wooden, he's just, I dunno, cool. He did give straight answers to questions that policy wonks would dance around. I still like McCain immensely for all the reasons that I always have but he currently seems more interested in the far right than in the middle which is perplexing for someone who has traditionally been a centrist.

[wacki]

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he currently seems more interested in the far right than in the middle which is perplexing for someone who has traditionally been a centrist.

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It's called the primaries, McCains toughest obstacle.

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He has definitely tied his fate to the success of this escalation, a huge miscalculation on his part, since it has 100% chance of failure.

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See I don't understand this when the troop surge is a fraction of what McCain would have sent. He has publicly stated, and agreed with the Economist:
http://www.viewswire.com/article5617...0293&text=

, that the current troop surge is not enough.

[amplify]

wacki,

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061231/...sa_politics_dc

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Democratic presidential hopeful
John Edwards, targeting a potential Republican rival in 2008, dubbed plans for a short-term U.S. troop increase in Iraq "the McCain doctrine," in an interview aired on Sunday.


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Whether or not it's exactly what McCain would do if he was calling the shots, he's supportive in general of the operation and is now tied to its success. You don't think he is?

[ACPlayer]

Too bad.

He is entirely unelectable in the General Elections. Am still hoping he gets the nomination for the republicans.

Anybody but the republicans in 2008!

[DVaut1]

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Whether or not it's exactly what McCain would do if he was calling the shots, he's supportive in general of the operation and is now tied to its success. You don't think he is?

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If he can successfully endear himself to the right to survive the primaries, I suspect he could likely distance himself from the negative public opinion surrounding the Iraq War's execution and, tangentially, the Bush administration, to remain competitive in a general election. Whether or not the maverick image he's crafted is anything more than superficial, I suspect it will greatly assist him in separating himself from the generally unpopular Iraq War/Bush administration if he wins the GOP nomination.

I don't think the Iraq War can get any less popular than it currently is, and yet he still polls better than Sen. Obama in mock head to head '08 matchups in key swing states, which suggests to me that McCain is not inexorably tied to the Iraq War, nor the Bush administration, in voters' minds:

Minnesota

McCain 48%
Obama 41%

Missouri

McCain 47%
Obama 45%

Ohio

McCain 54%
Obama 40%

In case you think these polls are indicative of some kind of problem with Obama (and don't suggest McCain is all that strong), then I would point you to mock '08 head to heads in those same swing states with another one of the GOP candidates favored to win the nomination, Gov. Romney:

Minnesota

Obama 51%
Romney 34%

Missouri

Obama 54%
Romney 33%

Ohio

Obama 50%
Romney 37%

I concede there's a myriad of problems in using such polls to discern much (specifically, voters rely heavily on name recognition this early in the election cycle before formal campaigns begin), but declaring the McCain candidacy dead at this point (due either to the unpopularity of the Iraq War or a singular performance on MTP) seems beyond the pale.

Far from 'toast', I'd suspect McCain is one of the top two favorites, if not the favorite, on most of the sportsbooks/exchanges like Tradesports, and rightfully so.

[zac7179]

I lost alot of respect for him when he did move so far right and start playing to the Bush base. He had alot of promise and would have been electable in the general election but the more he moves right the less electable he becomes

[bills217]

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Too bad.

He is entirely unelectable in the General Elections. Am still hoping he gets the nomination for the republicans.

Anybody but the republicans in 2008!

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Just plain ignorant.

If McCain is unelectable, then the odds that the Democrats win in 2008 are 100%. I hear you can get them at substantially better odds than that at Tradesports.

If anything, McCain is the ULTIMATE electable in a general election, lauded for years among the bobbleheads as a "moderate."

LOL if you think Hillary is more electable than McCain.

Edited to add: See DVaut's polls w/ McCain against probably the most electable Dem.

[DVaut1]

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If anything, McCain is the ULTIMATE electable in a general election

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I actually think that prize goes to Giuliani, who's viewed in the same light as McCain by most voters (ie., they see him as something of a moderate and is still considered by many to be heroic for his role in 9/11), and should he ever win the nomination, would have the added advantage of putting NY in play for the GOP.

This isn't to say "Giuliani would carry NY!", particularly if his opponent was Sen. Clinton, but it would surely have to concern Democrats that a typically safe state for them (with lots of electoral voters) would now be quite competitive. I can't think of an electoral map that gives the Democrats a victory in a presidential election without NY.

Giuliani *might* have an issue in a general election activating the GOP base, which is a problem I don't think McCain would have to overcome. While McCain is certainly no darling of the right, he at least aligns with them on pro-life/gun/gay marriage issues -- or is at least 'close enough'. Former Mayor Giuliani, on the hand, seems to be so far apart with some important interests on the right that he may have trouble securing their campaign money and/or convincing some of the rank and file to show up on Election Day.

Of course, Giuliani's biggest obstacle is actually winning the GOP nomination, which seems to be a tall order at this point.