Crosspost from MSNL: Cold-call river raise with bpnk

[PokerFink]

Gamblor,

Why did you discount trip fives in your original thinking? To me, his line screams trip fives.

[xorbie]

raise is easily better than call just because a lot of "bluffing" hands are better than hero. 7x:spades:, 88, 99. really anyhing that might try to blow hero off of a T, despite OP thinking he has mastered every single level of poker and this never happening.

[Eagles]

Raise is worse than call here for sure. Why would utg raise a 7 or 4 here, it doesn't make sense he's getting 8:1 his hand has showdown value and he's turning his hand into a bluff. If villain has a 5 he's probably not folding to a raise that often. So the only purpose of a raise is if he's raising a ten here which doesn't seem to make that much sense. Also your cold call looks fairly strong so UTG could fold a 7 here and maybe a ten. I think it's a clear fold/call raising here is awful. This is a spot where it looks like your up against a 5 or air and depending on your information/live reads either a call or fold seems fine.

[PokerFink]

Xorbie,

I see what you're saying, but I think you're giving UTG+1 way too much credit. It's just 5/5. If I'm UTG+1, and I have a pair of sevens (or 8s/9s), I'm calling and expecting my hand to be good the vast majority of the time - against both opponents.

How many 5/5 players raise a pair of sevens there to blow OP off a potential pair of tens?

[Gamblor]

[ QUOTE ]
Gamblor,

Why did you discount trip fives in your original thinking? To me, his line screams trip fives.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was a possibility, but I feel he would have bet the turn because he knows I am aggro and probably would have raised the flop with TP+ vs. the UTG tard and his float.

That he didn't bet the turn when an undercard to his 5 hit made it less likely that he had a 5. I felt like my flop overcall meant either Finally, the large river raise sealed the deal in my mind, i feel that, knowing that UTG likely had A-high due to his turn check (UTG is a non cr-er), he would have made a smaller raise or just called hoping i would overcall. If UTG+1 had just called the river I would have easily folded. His river raise, combined with the turn getting checked around on a drawy board, convinced me that he couldn't win a showdown vs. anything.

He's also cold calling an UTG raise with 7 people behind him left to act, significantly discounting the chances of him having a 5. Again, the only hands I thought he could have that I lose to were 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 66, or A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I beat 98, 22, 33, AK, or K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], etc , which are all in his range at the river (i.e. call flop, check turn 3-way) The only other possibility is a 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] type hand, but i still think those hands+villain fire the turn against UTG's air and my probable draw.

Again, if this seems illogical, please tell me why, cause it makes sense to me

[Gamblor]

[ QUOTE ]
raise is easily better than call just because a lot of "bluffing" hands are better than hero. 7x:spades:, 88, 99. really anyhing that might try to blow hero off of a T

[/ QUOTE ]

again:

UTG+1 would think I would bet a pair of Tens on the turn when 3-way.

I, on the button, have shown zero aggression, and no draws came in. Why wouldn't he take a shot at the pot with a busted draw, knowing i'll fold my "draw" and UTG likely has A-high?

I have more than once suggested 66, 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in UTG+1's range there. If someone shows us that these hands are certainly in that range, I say good idea, i should reraise. If someone shows us these hands are not really in that range, just call is better. If you haven't noticed, I guess I'm really asking players here, who read hands better than me, why I should or should not discount the chances of these hands.

[ QUOTE ]
despite OP thinking he has mastered every single level of poker and this never happening.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm playing 5-5 and posting asking for strategy advice. Yet i think ive mastered every level of poker. Now who's being inconsistent in their villain descriptions?

That i believe in my argument until it is shown to be significantly and provably in error, doesn't mean i think i know everything, sir.

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]

UTG+1 would think I would bet a pair of Tens on the turn when 3-way.


[/ QUOTE ]

more likely UTG+1 is an idiot and isn't thinking much at all. if everyone played poker perfectly, there wouldn't be money to be made.

[Gamblor]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

UTG+1 would think I would bet a pair of Tens on the turn when 3-way.


[/ QUOTE ]

more likely UTG+1 is an idiot and isn't thinking much at all. if everyone played poker perfectly, there wouldn't be money to be made.

[/ QUOTE ]

fair enough. if UTG+1 has either a 5 or air, isn't a matter of how often i think he'll be bluffing in this spot, and therefore I have to call if he's bluffing more than 340:150? or about 2:1?

Does my argument that he's really trying not to show down his hand tilt it towards > 2:1?

I'm asking you to confirm the correctness of that rationale, not trying to be obnoxious.

[Whats up Dawg]

Thats terrible.
Bad call.

[yellowsub]

lol @ calling on this river

honestly go brag somewhere else