Bellagio 25-50, turn straight, river pairs board

[Post-Oak]

If you are going to CR the turn, I like a bigger raise. In fact, I think you should overbet the pot and make it $3.5K (a 3K raise into a 2125 pot).

As played, I like a check-call on the river. Give him a chance to bluff. If he has a boat, he is going to get your money if you bet anyway.

IMO, betting 2.5K here and folding to a push is bad. At that point, you are committed.

[Post-Oak]

Does anyone else have a problem with the size of the turn C/R?

I would more often than not lead the turn, but when I did C/R I would bomb it to about $3500 rather than raise less than 3/4 pot.

[ceczar]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else have a problem with the size of the turn C/R?

I would more often than not lead the turn, but when I did C/R I would bomb it to about $3500 rather than raise less than 3/4 pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

i hear what you're saying, and clearly this put me in a rough spot when the bad card hit the river, but making it easier to play comes at a cost of letting him get away from his set/2pair. i wish he had just bet more on the turn himself so i could have made it 3k or so, but i think i give up too much value by raising a 500 bet to 3k there.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
i hear what you're saying, and clearly this put me in a rough spot when the bad card hit the river, but making it easier to play comes at a cost of letting him get away from his set/2pair. i wish he had just bet more on the turn himself so i could have made it 3k or so, but i think i give up too much value by raising a 500 bet to 3k there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would he call your C/R to 2K if he only had 2 pair, unless he thought you were bluffing? After all, he would be drawing thin against broadway or any set. So I guess the question is whether he thinks a small C/R is more likely to be a bluff than a large C/R.

Also, I know what you are saying about the balance of maximising EV as opposed to making life easier, but I just think most people here seem to assume they will not make mistakes and lean too far towards tricky play.

In other words, we have people in this thread who say you should check-call, people who say to bet small and then fold, and people who say to check-consider. I think some people are in fact making a mistake in their analysis (personally I am in the check-call camp, but I have no problem with check-consider). Furthermore, during a live hand, any player is far more likely to make a mistake than he is when replying in one of these threads.

When you make it 3500, he may still read it as a bluff. Whether a diamond hits, or the board pairs, you are pushing the river regardless. When you make it 2000, he may call more often with two pair or less, but there are an awful lot of scare cards for the river. This means you may be put to a tough decision. Furthermore, if he does have a flush draw (it's possible given the negligible flop action) or a set, he is now correct to call you if he can get your stack if he hits the river.

I just think you should bomb it and give him a chance to make a bad call. I understand that people's opinion can vary on how likely he is to call a small C/R as opposed to a big one, and this consideration has a huge effect on any analysis. But like I said earlier, I think he has to be reading you for a bluff to call the smaller C/R anyhow, and I don't think he is that much less likely to call the big C/R. And of course, you're decision making is over once you make it 3500.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

I think your hand is face up when you c/r the turn. If he still called, I think it's more likely he has a set than two pair if he's any good because two pair is drawing so slim (and in some cases possibly dead). So if he strikes you as a good player then you've gotta check/fold as he wasn't floating you and probably filled up.

Oh, and value betting in this spot is pretty bad IMO.

[ceczar]

i think the plurality at least is for ch-call, and i wish i had taken a bit more time to consider my options before i acted. i quickly pushed, and he insta-called with AA.

i had too heavily discounted the probability of big pairs relative to AK-AJ that i had committed to calling if i checked but i decided the chance of a crying call outweighed the chances i would induce a bluff by checking. i do think is a a common type of player for whom big aces is so much more likely than set given the preflop call on the button, but i should have given more weight to the relatively quick turn call screaming set.

the only real advantage to the push is getting him off one of the other jacks if he had the straight instead. as the more i think about it the less i believe he could actually call with AK here

[TrymeChicken]

Post-Oak I like your thoughts!
Ceczar sry but i dont like your play on every street out-taken preflop.
I would bet the flop strong (why check...callt? U were the raiser...when i check i would give up when he bets...in normal chase u have not much on implied odds when u hit your hand, so your gutshot is bad u draw very slim, and it is much more complicatet to play out op postion(the most important factor why i would fould after a check) especiale if there is a flushdraw...than u have 3 clean outs)
So i bet and i think he would slowplay hes top set (what is a pretty sick play on this board (if a queen or a jack falls i dont get any action from 2 pair or a little set and i get the action when im [censored])
then on the turn its a pretty tricky play it depands much on my read if hes strong or week and if hes week how big is the probability that he bluffs.
If i think hes week and try me to bluff (against an agressiv player) i most like a tiny week bet and hope i get raised than i would think a long long time would call
and would play check....instant call on the river...no matter what card is coming!

If u think hes strong and a pretty good player there is only 1 right play!!! U have to overbet the pot!!! Particularly if a flushdraw was present on the flop...I would bet an amount that hes making a misake to call with a set included his imlied odds and in consideration to your stack sizes! (Im not unhappy to win the pot on the turn cause your hand is too obvisous (I said bad gutshot with only 1 card I never play a gutshot like this)
When u make this play u will see how often u will be paid off...belive me it will be often enough!

Its a sick turn play to check in this situation i would thank u and take the freecard. His turn play was sick too...But if the hand is played what its played u check he bets u have to make a big check raise like post-oak said
and than on the river bet the rest...after a check raise when he calls and the borad is paird on the river u MUST bet the rest...if u check the river he only send u all in when u r beaten!!!

Maybe u can tell me if u r in agreement with my analysis Post-Oak or strasser!

Saw Your 500K headup play strasser a few month ago and i have to say u have my respekt....allmighty Strasser :-)!

Ps: Ceczar a last tip for your gusshot plays....only play a gutshot with both cards if your gutshot is not obvious, the board is rainbow, u make the nuts and u think u have the implied odds! Thats the genaral rules but there are always exceptions and than it depands on many many factors!

I hope i could help u a little bit

Best greets TrymeChicken

[Stinger88]

I think a month bet on the turn is better than a week bet

[stealyourface]

i say you push to make him fold his broadway.

ala super system