Sunday Mill, 19 left, sb steal

[Loonbat]

Villian commentary:

Been TAG most of the game, and my changing of speeds has been fairly inperceptable, so probably viewed very rock-like at this time. Overall, I think our rail did you an injustice by the bashing for this push, but if I put you on anything less than a big pp, I was calling, strictly from an odds point-of-view.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Can I clarify this - if villain calls every time with a random hand, is pushing still correct?

[/ QUOTE ]
If you push and villain always calls, the pot is 6.5xBB and you are 40% versus a random hand. So you win an average of 2.7xBB. By pushing, you are putting in 2.5xBB, so your average gain is .2xBB.

Villain will fold some weak hands, particularly with the bubble, so it is a lot better than that.

Assuming villain calls with his top 70% hands, you are 36% if called. Your average loss if called is .16xBB. When you are not called, you gain 2xBB compared to folding. So your average gain is .5xBB.

Part of the issue is that 82s is not all that bad a hand. It is soooted.

I would probably push this hand from the SB for 7xBB. That is cEV- if you are always called, but in practice the larger push has a lot more folding equity.

[Cornell Fiji]

This is the most perfectly played hand I have ever seen.

-Steve

[Patrio]

I really appreciate the interest in my post
My Internet was down so I could not answer until now. For those of you who are result-oriented he called with AK and I lost. The chat exploded and I was almost the worst donk that have ever have played the SM. But would have pushed I still think it was a good play

And thank for the compliment Cornell Fiji! (I guess it was a compliment)

[Squale88]

[ QUOTE ]
Can I clarify this - if villain calls every time with a random hand, is pushing still correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

Work isn't very fun today so what the heck, I'll waste some company time and do a little poker math.

Hopefully, I did all the math correctly but here are the cEV calculations for the entire range. It's positive cEv no matter what.

============================================
IF VILLAIN CALLS AND HERO WINS: 920415
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IF VILLAIN CALLS AND HERO LOSES: -602415
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IF VILLAIN FOLDS: 438000
============================================
Calling Range: 100%
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.73% 57.14% 2.59% 1198467986 54377725.00 { random }
Hand 1: 40.27% 37.68% 2.59% 790348964 54377725.00 { 8h2h }
cEV 22313.0895
============================================
Calling Range: 90%
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.58% 59.55% 2.03% 1142037860 38877751.00 { Top 90% }
Hand 1: 38.42% 36.40% 2.03% 697987118 38877751.00 { 8h2h }
cEV 36374.6868
============================================
Calling Range: 80%
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.57% 60.76% 1.81% 1040396075 30913909.00 { Top 80% }
Hand 1: 37.44% 35.63% 1.81% 610080107 30913909.00 { 8h2h }
cEV 68158.4976
============================================
Calling Range: 70%
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.81% 62.42% 1.39% 939522905 20869708.50 { Top 70% }
Hand 1: 36.19% 34.80% 1.39% 523852894 20869708.50 { 8h2h }
cEV 99802.45185
============================================
Calling Range: 60%
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.88% 63.75% 1.13% 815382856 14489403.50 { Top 60% }
Hand 1: 35.12% 33.99% 1.13% 434729425 14489403.50 { 8h2h }
cEV 137648.0913
============================================
Calling Range: 50%
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.85% 64.95% 0.89% 695099201 9577920.50 { Top 50% }
Hand 1: 34.15% 33.26% 0.89% 355934958 9577920.50 { 8h2h }
cEV 179819.04
============================================
Calling Range: 40%
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.56% 65.86% 0.70% 570586557 6062489.50 { Top 40% }
Hand 1: 33.45% 32.75% 0.70% 283714288 6062489.50 { 8h2h }
cEV 226806.1194
============================================
Calling Range: 30%
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.24% 66.70% 0.54% 441986651 3557812.00 { Top 30% }
Hand 1: 32.76% 32.23% 0.54% 213559373 3557812.00 { 8h2h }
cEV 276285.1772
============================================
Calling Range: 20%
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.09% 67.69% 0.40% 307158735 1802188.50 { Top 20% }
Hand 1: 31.91% 31.51% 0.40% 142997448 1802188.50 { 8h2h }
cEV 327458.7426
============================================
Calling Range: 10%
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.87% 70.55% 0.32% 153421022 696044.50 { Top 10% }
Hand 1: 29.13% 28.81% 0.32% 62649497 696044.50 { 8h2h }
cEV 378460.4307
============================================