Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to

[smbruin22]

you may or may not realize that the minnesota/seattle people (or most of them) have already been to hollywood and either been cut or put thru.... i think that's right and i think i read that here (if not it was google groups).

moderate spoiler alert........


some of the people you guys are speculating on betting on are already gone.

[mynamewastaken]

To me such a big part of the game is being ahead of the market, taking advantage of insider info, etc. that we can't intelligently discuss betting on the show unless we can post spoilers. Are we allowed to?

The only problem I guess is it's a public forum, so by posting it you could cause the line to move. But you gotta figure it will move eventually anyway...

[GrannyMae]

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I think I would watch the army/navy people closely, they might get a lot more votes than their performance alone call for.

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this may have been the case several years ago, but not now. there is as much sympathy/support for servicepeople as there is for GW's politics. sad, but true.

the only army person to ever advance was josh gracin iirc, and he was awful.

[TimTimSalabim]

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remember this as well tank.

it is likely the winner will come from someone NOT pimped at all, than pimped.

case(s) in point--> we did not hear fantasia or kelly clarkston until the finals.

the only reason we saw taylor's tryout last year was because the producers thought he would never advance far. he was considered a novelty that would likely not make it to top 12.

in the case of fantasia, they just plain hid her from us..

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I don't think that's generally true. Fantasia was the exception. I seem to recall there was lots of focus on Clay/Ruben, McPhee, and Underwood and other major contenders well before the finals, including their first audition for most of them. And I didn't see the first season, but in AI Rewind, Clarkson is also in it plenty early on, unless they edited that in for the Rewind show.

[mynamewastaken]

I watched the 1st season after I saw the 2nd, 3rd and 4th, and I remember being shocked how late you see Kelly. I can't remember if you see her first audition anymore, but beyond that she is barely mentioned until the top 10. Then she comes out of nowhere and when it's down to 7 or 8 she's told she can win it by the judges.

[TimTimSalabim]

I don't think they attempted to hide Clarkson, I think that it was just that her early performances weren't that impressive.

In more recent history, McPhee and Underwood were both very impressive in their first auditions, but they made no attempt to hide them, in fact, they put quite a bit of attention on them.

[smbruin22]

curious about the auditions comments..... i have only really watched the first and last seasons, but i remember katharine mcphee's audition and thinking she'll be there near the end (last 3 or 4)...

do you think katharine had tried out for idol before and just made it last time? did they have los angeles auditions in previous years??.. just wondering if someone like her or carrie underwood is guaranteed to get thru audition process or if it's just so inefficient doing 12,000 people...

thinking the talent this year has been weak, and that maybe the best talent has already been on the show.... once you "coming to hollywood", can you not try out again?? i.e. can bucky re-audition this year? i thinking NO

[mynamewastaken]

From wikipedia:

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Those who are ineligible [to audition] are: those who have current talent representation or a recording contract; have made it to a top 30 on Season 1, top 32 on Seasons 2 and 3, or top 24 on Seasons 4 and 5; or are affiliated with Fox, Fremantle, 19, its sponsors, its affiliates, its subsidies and parent companies; anyone whose age is not in the required age range; and non-US citizens. Even if a person is eligible, he or she may not have a chance to audition or be seen because the show can see only a limited number of people in each city.

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This is in addition to age/residency requirements, as well as other requirements (like revealing previous arrests/criminal record etc.)

[smbruin22]

thanks for the requirements... so it's top 24-32 depending on the year (based on quick scan).. so you could "you're going to hollywood" more than one year....

[kylephilly]

Sundance Head, is he the real deal?