Kiss the profit margin goodbye?

[EddieRooo]

Speaking of betfair celeb big brotehr market - do you not think that laying someone at even 200-1 to win is decent if they have been evicted...?

[Mike Haven]

You'd think so, in fair betting terms, as Big Brother can do whatever he wants, and reinstating already evicted contestants, or those who have baled out, is always a possibility.

However, a lot of inside information leaks out to, probably, Big Brother workers' families and friends, and you'd think bets like this would be snapped up if the possibility was being considered. (Of course, they might suddenly think of doing it, later, so maybe it is a fair bet at this stage, but it doesn't seem to be in the pre-show planned ideas.)

I was watching the market a number of days ago and I was puzzled by a sudden noticeable movement to take a load of long-priced lays. The better would have had to pay out, say, 50 to 1 if one of a number of contestants was evicted. A few minutes later Big Brother announced that only certain (other) people were eligible for eviction. In my opinion, this was an example of the result of receiving inside informaton. Occasionally, you can take a chance and jump in on a sudden market-move bandwagon, but I wasn't prepared to risk 50-1 on that particular one.

[EddieRooo]

Well my example would be Donnie. Its 210-1 and he walked out, so I cant see him getting recalled or anyone voting for him to win. Theres only 2 pounds availible. I think it is more likely to be people that backed it at great odds (or just people that think "its worth it for 2 pounds" when the real odds dont reflect it) and forgot about it rather than someone calculating that the odds of donnie coming back in the house multiplied by the chance of him winning are X.

Especially since one of the other housemates that is no longer in the house is at 1000-1. I think alot of people that use exchanges probably have better liabilitys to lay (unless they have a huge bankroll)

I do find this very interesting though.

[Mike Haven]

Yes; they don't actually close the market until the winner is declared alright. So if you created a Lay bet now of 250, (249/1), it would pop up as an offered Back at 250. Your bet would not become firm until someone backed.

If you don't delete your bet and no one backs, it will remain as an offered Back until the end.

It's possible whoever is offering the 240 that is showing at the moment is trying to "complete his book" on his Donny bets. Maybe he backed Donny for £2, (the minimum), to win at 255 and so he has to Lay at 240 to get his lost £2 back. He may be leaving the bet open and hoping some gambler will come along and back Donny some drunken night for "only £2".

Who knows? It's all good fun, anyway. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[EddieRooo]

I think we are agreeing here, but yeah basically I layed 2 on donnie to win at 200-1 because someone had already backed it for 2 pounds (presumably an error).

So Im not really setting a price im just going with the market price for laying.


re. your example: I cant think of a situation where the odds would have shot up to 255-1 though and the guy still back donnie without questioning why his odds were so high (hed literally have to log in just after he had left and not been bothered to check that he had left)


Even then it seem clear to say that anyoen backing donnie is making a big mistake..I wouldn't know how to quanfity his actual chance of winning but it is probably at least 1000-1

[Mike Haven]

Yeah - good point on the 255. Not a highly likely scenario!

I layed Cleo today at 6.2. Could have bet at 5.1 a bit later, but I thought she would go lower. Now she's moved out again to 5.7. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[EddieRooo]

All depends on whether this shipla thing blows over (I dont really watch it but Cleo was my initial thought for winner after seeing the first couple of days), thing is she isnt aware of how bad the slagging behind her back is (like if she finds out and loses it...i mean she might even want to leave the house)

[Mike Haven]

I see you can win another £2 for £800 against Donny! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Mike Haven]

Eddie,

I was chatting about this to a regular and experienced Betfair bettor. I thought you might like to see his comments:

i think some people may genuinely take pleasure in seeing their stupid high odds offers come up on screen.

others may be experimenting to see how system works... like buy side and lay side can be miles apart if noone has offered fillers... but it is a fact that even experienced players will hit wrong butons or leave bets by accident which can be hoovered up by predators.

all uk horse races are offered in running and there are always queues of people willing to back at 1.01 when a horse is 5 lengths clear with 100 yards to go. they will be accommodated by layers who know that horses occasionally stop, break down or fall.

equally people offer to lay bookies 100/1 shots at 500/1 because in their opinion the horse, big brother contestant or canada cricket team has no f c.

these people occasionally get their fingers burnt but look at long term. its not like poker where odds can be calculated precisely.

[hoff21]

[ QUOTE ]


this is 2p2, there will NEVER be a consensus. half these donks bet with their dicks.



[/ QUOTE ]


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