NFL Teaser for next week

[beetman]

Going from 5 to 11 you gain the 6, 7, and 10. There are profitable teasers other than strict "basic strategy" ones, particularly when you only have to pay even money instead of -110.

[playersare]

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Going from 5 to 11 you gain the 6, 7, and 10. There are profitable teasers other than strict "basic strategy" ones, particularly when you only have to pay even money instead of -110.

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even money teaser needs a 70.7% minimum win rate per leg. teasing a game 6 through 10 only increases win expectation to about 67%.

[Thremp]

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Going from 5 to 11 you gain the 6, 7, and 10. There are profitable teasers other than strict "basic strategy" ones, particularly when you only have to pay even money instead of -110.

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even money teaser needs a 70.7% minimum win rate per leg. teasing a game 6 through 10 only increases win expectation to about 67%.

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You do see how this is wrong when using it in specific cases instead of for every single game?

[playersare]

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You do see how this is wrong when using it in specific cases instead of for every single game?

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I'll take a stab in the dark and guess that English is not your major in college. and even if it is, Alabama none the less.

[Thremp]

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You do see how this is wrong when using it in specific cases instead of for every single game?

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I'll take a stab in the dark and guess that English is not your major in college. and even if it is, Alabama none the less.

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DOO U C Y?

[beetman]

What years of data did you use to get that result? Your data almost has to be somehow flawed or you used a very small sample. In any case, break it down between road and home dogs and see what answer you get.

[playersare]

widely accepted push percentages in the NFL.

10 - 4%
9 - 1%
8 - 2%
7 - 6%
6 - 4%
total gained by tease - 17%
win expectation on any game ATS - 50%
win expectation of tease 6 through 10 - 67%

note: late fouling is not factored into my data. is that perhaps what I messed up on?

[beetman]

You can't use push rates to analyze teasers, nevermind that NFL dogs historically hit higher than 50% ATS.

Of course it's in my best interests that nobody bets those teasers, so feel free to pass on these bets. Or better yet, feel free to book my action on them at even money. Perhaps some betting exchange site could offer a teaser section.

With regards to the late fouling in the NBA, how typical of this forum that I explained a trivially simple NBA concept that any semi-experienced NBA bettor knows about, someone arguing with me posted data *that proved my point* and the vast majority of prople still don't get it.

[beetman]

Also, you forgot to include half of the 5 and half of the 11 in there.

[Thremp]

This is lame. Maybe we could just ask Dementia if he feels that the distribution of outcomes would deviate from historical averages since there is not a good sample of playoff games from which to pull. If he thinks it did deviate... great. If it wasn't going to... Then fine.

I can see his logic with the Seahawks, if he was counting on Rexy never really passing when up by 2 scores or more. I watched little of this game so I can't validate after the fact, but there do exist reason for betting isolated games instead of the whole subset if you can pick them out.