Bodog Next Year NFL Player Props - Page 2

Utah · #11 01-03-2007, 07:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Will Randy Moss play for the Oakland Raiders in week 1 of the 2007-08 Regular Season?

Player must play the team's first game of the 2007-08 NFL regular season for wagers to have action. No Parlays. Max $100

Who likes a freeroll? (I think Moss has no shot at being there next year though esp under his current salary)
[and I don't exactly trust bodog's wording here...]

[/ QUOTE ]

What dont you like about the wording? Also, I have played a lot of props at Bodog and they have been excellent at paying them out even with ambiguity. For example, I won a bet on Keith Urban going back to rehab. The wording was someithng about an announcement having to be made in order for the YES to payoff. I asked about it and they said there was no announcement yet. I forwarded them a pretty ambiguous article that certainly did not meet the official wording of the prop. They sent me back an email saying "good enough" and paid the $100.

Maybe others have had bad experiences with prop payouts but so far they have been awesome for me.

Also, why do you think Moss is gone for sure?

Utah · #12 01-03-2007, 08:00 PM

Added:

Will Randy Moss play for the Oakland Raiders in week 1 of the 2007-08 Regular Season? No at -130

I did some more researching on this and I like the no for the following reasons:

1) He wants to leave badly
2) Oakland wants to get rid of him badly
3) Oakland is asking for only a 3rd round pick for him
4) There is demand for him. Teams like the Vikings, who are desperate for receivers, will want him if they can get him cheap and they will ignore his cancerous nature to start. The Vikings are already rumored as a landing spot for him.
5) His situation seems irreconcilable in Oakland.

The bad:
1) He is under contract
2) He is slated to make about $10 million next year. I have no idea how this works and whether it means another team would have to pay him that much. I couldnt find more info.

Even with some doubt, the odds he is gone are at least 2 to 1.

Also, I clarified with Bodog about the wording. Their response was,"If Randy Moss is traded from the Oakland Raiders, then he would not be playing in their first game, and "No" would be the winning wager."

wheatrich · #13 01-03-2007, 10:05 PM

That bet explicity says
Player must play the team's first game of the 2007-08 NFL regular season for wagers to have action

Which is why I'm not betting on it because even if it is no--that doesn't mean they have to pay off the wager. I don't bet on bets that aren't 100% clear to me and I don't care if you asked them--sites have been known to change their minds (and what one cs rep says doesn't mean squat)
With the wording--you should be freerolling on a yes bet and a no bet would be almost an automatic loss.

I had the no box checked actually before I read the whole thing again lol. If you trust them then go ahead and make the bet--but no is a bet that as worded is a bad one thus I'm not going to make it. (Bodog should change the wording to reflect what that bet truely meant to them--if they don't I assume they meant what they put up there)

You just had to look at his contract to know he's going to get cut this offseason. (there isn't demand for him though like you think)

Utah · #14 01-03-2007, 11:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That bet explicity says
Player must play the team's first game of the 2007-08 NFL regular season for wagers to have action

Which is why I'm not betting on it because even if it is no--that doesn't mean they have to pay off the wager. I don't bet on bets that aren't 100% clear to me and I don't care if you asked them--sites have been known to change their minds (and what one cs rep says doesn't mean squat)
With the wording--you should be freerolling on a yes bet and a no bet would be almost an automatic loss.

I had the no box checked actually before I read the whole thing again lol. If you trust them then go ahead and make the bet--but no is a bet that as worded is a bad one thus I'm not going to make it. (Bodog should change the wording to reflect what that bet truely meant to them--if they don't I assume they meant what they put up there)

You just had to look at his contract to know he's going to get cut this offseason. (there isn't demand for him though like you think)

[/ QUOTE ]

If you can't trust a book, especially for a small $100 bet, then you shouldn't bet with them at all. That is why I dont play books like 5dimes. I think the odds that Bodog would try to freeroll you is 0%. If I thought it was higher I wouldnt bet props there. I havent heard yet of bodog trying to screw anyone on a prop. However, I know of many times where the Bodog ruled in the bettor's favor when they didnt have to. Every interaction I have had with them has been first rate. Just my opinion.

Utah · #15 01-04-2007, 02:07 PM

Added:

Football - NFL Player Props Will Cleveland Browns GM Phil Savage be fired before the 2007 NFL Draft? NO at -110

I did more research on this and there are new reports saying that Savage is pretty solid at the moment and Crenell is not as vulnerable as people thought. Although I am not 100% positive, it sounds like Crenell will be given an ultimatum to fire about half his staff to keep his job. The Browns have a good core of young players and I bet at the end of the day they will take the path of least resistance and not fire Savage. This is starting to feel like a "one more year to prove himself" type thing. I play the odds of him getting fire at about 30% and there is greater chance that my number is too high than too low. So -110 is excellent value even if this isnt an easy money bet. Also, this bet ends at the draft so the time lag is small.

There meetings that are taking place now with the team that could change all this. However, the rumors of Savage leaving were much stronger a week ago.

Utah · #16 01-04-2007, 07:04 PM

Added:

Will Art Shell be coach of Oakland Raiders in the 2007-08 Regular Season? NO -220

The rumor is going to be fired shortly. This is a tough one but if the rumor is false there is still a chance he gets fired. Good enough to bet -220

Dementia · #17 01-04-2007, 07:14 PM

Ugh Utah,

Was there a "yes" for +200? I really think he's staying, the owner has fired him before, and Art really has got this defense playing well. I for sure think he's returning, plus Adam Schefter of the NFL Networks reports were unfounded, the owner released a statement basically cawkslapping Adams report. Arts got another chance this yr I'm fairly sure.

Utah · #18 01-04-2007, 07:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh Utah,

Was there a "yes" for +200? I really think he's staying, the owner has fired him before, and Art really has got this defense playing well. I for sure think he's returning, plus Adam Schefter of the NFL Networks reports were unfounded, the owner released a statement basically cawkslapping Adams report. Arts got another chance this yr I'm fairly sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a +160. It was 150 I believe but the line has moved towards the NO in the last 10 minutes.

My analysis is not based on Schefter's rumor, which was in December.

Edit: In the last 20 minute - the rumor is now spreading to a lot of sources that he is to be fired. Of course, it could just be one source being picked up and reported on by other sources.

Utah · #19 01-04-2007, 09:07 PM

It looks like other sources are indepedently verifying the rumor. Bodog has taken down the line. Apparently, they are trying to negotiate a settlement with Shell for his final year.

Still no word from the Raiders, which scares me a bit as it is nothing but a rumor until then.

Utah · #20 01-04-2007, 09:53 PM

Boom Goes the Dynamite!

Shell out. Watching it on ESPNnews breaking report now. It is good to start my prop picks off with a win, especially the one where I laid the biggest odds (plus the 2 wins for Saban and Millen (most likely) that were recommended by others).

Player Prop Picks:
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+1 units