Big pot, tough choice...

[unterfish]

*grunch*
Call. You are getting at least 43-2 plus huge implied odds.
I think thats enough to justify a call.

[Boggy Depot]

For two small bets you're getting 23.5:1 odds because no one behind you is going to fold away this pot for 1 more small bet. You have to see the next card and hope for the miracle.

[bozlax]

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first flop raise is excellent. You can probably drop it here. If you had different position I might say call and fold if it's 2 to you on the turn, but being sandwiched (a Hero sandwich, get it) you can't make that play. Just drop it here I think.

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I agree about the first flop raise. Putting MP1 on a jack because he donkbets is MUBS, you're not protecting anywhere in this hand, and if nobody's holding a jack the only hands you're worried about are 66 and AA. I suppose SB could be holding JJ, and letting everybody bet for him, but that's unlikely.

When the flop comes back to you capped, however, you're looking at 42:2 (without considering rake) immediate; given that MP1 will bet the turn 100% of the time when the blinds check, tho, there's 44:2...you have to call, here, closing the action. Going a step further, on the turn the blinds check, MP1 bets, you call (still getting correct odds), CO raises, the blinds fold, and MP1 ONLY CALLS, I think you're calling again, closing the action.

This hand is all about immediate odds, and, in fact, the stats and all the rest make no damn difference, because that assumes that you care what the Villans have. You don't care. You're drawing to 2 outs against everything but the very unlikely JJ. If an ace falls on the turn, you're drawing to 2 outs; (almost) any other card, 2 outs. I think the only cards on the turn that will make me consider folding this for 1 bet would be a 6 or a third J. If it's 2 back to me on the turn, then my odds have gone South, and I'm out, but you have to spend 2BB, here, with a live draw; I don't take the read on CO as strong enough to make me feel I have to count on his raising up the turn.

Edit: I'm going to make this a bit stronger. Folding the flop is awful. Even if we take it as given that MP1 and CO will cap the turn between them, that doesn't impact our decision to call on the flop, getting the right odds to see one more card. Yes, if we have a strong belief that the turn will be capped eventually, we can't call even one bet THEN (we'd be getting, uh, 7.5:1 without the blinds, 9.5:1 if they stay) for the whole street, but we have to at least see the turn before we make that decision.

[FatedEquity]

Don't fold this flop. The pot is huge and you're getting enough of an overlay to call even a 2-outer if you are behind.

[Christian_Peters]

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For two small bets you're getting 23.5:1 odds because no one behind you is going to fold away this pot for 1 more small bet. You have to see the next card and hope for the miracle.

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I got 39:2 or 19.5:1, so we don't exactly have the 23:1 break even that we require for a two out draw. However, I'm certain that if that miracle King comes on the turn, you can make up many, many bets by the time all the cards are out, so even though this is close, I think we should call.

To make this call, don't even think about calling MP1's bet on the turn if you don't spike a King.

[threads13]

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For two small bets you're getting 23.5:1 odds because no one behind you is going to fold away this pot for 1 more small bet. You have to see the next card and hope for the miracle.

[/ QUOTE ]

I got 39:2 or 19.5:1, so we don't exactly have the 23:1 break even that we require for a two out draw. However, I'm certain that if that miracle King comes on the turn, you can make up many, many bets by the time all the cards are out, so even though this is close, I think we should call.

To make this call, don't even think about calling MP1's bet on the turn if you don't spike a King.

[/ QUOTE ]

The blinds are likely coming to the turn so there will be 22BB on the turn (minus rake if isn't already hit its cap). You can think about calling the turn bet.

[Christian_Peters]

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For two small bets you're getting 23.5:1 odds because no one behind you is going to fold away this pot for 1 more small bet. You have to see the next card and hope for the miracle.

[/ QUOTE ]

I got 39:2 or 19.5:1, so we don't exactly have the 23:1 break even that we require for a two out draw. However, I'm certain that if that miracle King comes on the turn, you can make up many, many bets by the time all the cards are out, so even though this is close, I think we should call.

To make this call, don't even think about calling MP1's bet on the turn if you don't spike a King.

[/ QUOTE ]

The blinds are likely coming to the turn so there will be 22BB on the turn (minus rake if isn't already hit its cap). You can think about calling the turn bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point about the blinds calling as well, hadn't thought about that.

However, the reason we don't call MP1's bet is because reverse odds - we are sandwiched between the two aggressors. So, if we call MP1's bet, we're usually calling 2BB or folding when it gets back to MP1 and he makes it 3.

The thing about these odds is that they are "break even."

[Boggy Depot]

Upon further review...I agree with Thread's math. However, break-even for 44 SB + implied odds if you hit + peace of mind if you hit = call the 2 SB IMO.

I know we're all suppose to be logical and rational when it comes to these decisions but if you muck here and that King comes on the turn...that could be one ruined evening. I'll pay 2 SB for a monster pot coin-flip and a peaceful easy feeling. (gee, I wonder why my variance is so high)

[threads13]

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For two small bets you're getting 23.5:1 odds because no one behind you is going to fold away this pot for 1 more small bet. You have to see the next card and hope for the miracle.

[/ QUOTE ]

I got 39:2 or 19.5:1, so we don't exactly have the 23:1 break even that we require for a two out draw. However, I'm certain that if that miracle King comes on the turn, you can make up many, many bets by the time all the cards are out, so even though this is close, I think we should call.

To make this call, don't even think about calling MP1's bet on the turn if you don't spike a King.

[/ QUOTE ]

The blinds are likely coming to the turn so there will be 22BB on the turn (minus rake if isn't already hit its cap). You can think about calling the turn bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point about the blinds calling as well, hadn't thought about that.

However, the reason we don't call MP1's bet is because reverse odds - we are sandwiched between the two aggressors. So, if we call MP1's bet, we're usually calling 2BB or folding when it gets back to MP1 and he makes it 3.

The thing about these odds is that they are "break even."

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but given the action CO will not raise as often here since MP1 capped the flop. We don't know that CO will raise but if he does you can fold when it is two back to you.

[NigelSmith]

Thanks for all the replies, guys. Interesting to see the different views of the same situation.

Stats were 100+ hands for each, I've played against the poster before but he had only just joined the game. Boz -- I didn't put MP1 on a Jack because of the donk, but because of the flop cap that followed it.

At the time I reckoned the chances of being dead to pocket Jacks was the same as the chance that my Kings were actually ahead, so disregarded both and concentrated on filling up to win. Stupidly I missed that the CO and blinds would probably come along, and reminded myself that lately I've been calling down too often when obviously behind...

Yep, I folded. MP1 had [JH,KD], CO had [JS,8S], BB had [Ts,TC], so I can take comfort in my reads if not my maths :-)

So I only had 1 out -- and the turn was [KS] and our boats would have gone to war. Bum! Should have included Boggy's "peace of mind" fudge factor :-)

Thanks again, folks.

Nige