KQs on K-high flop - Page 2

threads13 · #11 12-29-2006, 01:53 PM

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If this were HU, you obviously just call down from the donk flop, without ever raising. You're in a tough spot on this flop though - because if you don't raise, you give LP 12-1. I would raise to protect my hand. I strongly consider folding the turn, but it is read dependent. I probably call down and expect to lose to AA,KK, or AK a significant majority of the time.

Here's something to think about for the future though:
If this were HU and you did raise the flop, what should you do on a blank turn if he just calls your flop raise?
Against most villains, the answer is you should check. Because you have a pair of kings, you don't fear a free card that much. This move also prevents the turn c/r which is extremely common in this sort of situation, ie when he just calls your flop raise. Few villains are good enough to fold QQ or JJ in this spot, but some are. And if you do this move, you get these hands to donk you again on the river, which you can snap off. Just FWIW. But again, HU it is probably best to just call down from the start.

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I missed that 3rd player. I raise the flop to get him out, even though I don't like the way our hand is going.

unterfish · #12 12-29-2006, 02:18 PM

Actually, Im folding the turn. Villain didnt only 3bet PF, he did it OOP. So we could still be up against QQ. But after his flop reraise, I dont think queens are still in our range.

Shillx · #13 12-29-2006, 04:17 PM

Weight your outs like...

KK (1) = 0
AA (6) = 5
AK (8) = 3

Total = 54 combo-outs / 15 combos = 3.6 outs

There are 44 unknown cards so your chance of winning is 3.6/44 or 8.2% so you need about 11:1 to continue on (minus implied odds). As far as implied odds go, you are a 6:4 favorite on a river king but you probably aren't when he bets. So if a king comes and he bets you have to call and you are probably [censored]. You would be a 14:1 favortie if a queen comes so that is the only card that you have any implied odds on.

Clownfish · #14 12-29-2006, 04:40 PM

So shill, you are in favor of a fold on turn but, what about the flop raise?

Seems to me like this is a situation where call all the way down is best. I'm not getting more bets out of him if I'm ahead by raising.

threads13 · #15 12-29-2006, 04:54 PM

A couple questions...

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Weight your outs like...

KK (1) = 0
AA (6) = 5
AK (8) = 3

Total = 54 combo-outs / 15 combos = 3.6 outs

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Where does the 54 come from?

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There are 44 unknown cards so your chance of winning is 3.6/44 or 8.2% so you need about 11:1 to continue on (minus implied odds). As far as implied odds go, you are a 6:4 favorite on a river king but you probably aren't when he bets. So if a king comes and he bets you have to call and you are probably [censored]. You would be a 14:1 favortie if a queen comes so that is the only card that you have any implied odds on.

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Where does the:

"...6:4 favorite on a river king... 14:1 favorite if a queen comes..."

come from?

Shillx · #16 12-29-2006, 05:10 PM

- Well you multiply the combos times the outs and add them up. So 1*0 + 6*5 + 8*3 = 54

- If a king comes, there will be 6 combos of AA that you beat and 4 combos of AK that you lose to. Thus being a 6:4 favorite. If a queen comes you beat the 6 AA's and 8 AK's but lose to the case KK. You would be a 14:1 favorite.

bozlax · #17 12-29-2006, 05:34 PM

Line is fine. Your guy is TPA; his preflop 3-jack means JJ+/AK. When he bets out the flop you're WA/WB with him, and would really like to get rid of MP2 so the raise is in order; his 3-bet here makes me nervous, but he's also got the stats of a guy that would play hard postflop with anything he's 3-betting pre, so I'm not willing to give up, but I don't want him to give up JJ/QQ, otoh. Call down from there, bet if he checks to you.

threads13 · #18 12-29-2006, 06:45 PM

Another question

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Total = 54 combo-outs / 15 combos = 3.6 outs

There are 44 unknown cards so your chance of winning is 3.6/44 or 8.2% so you need about 11:1 to continue on (minus implied odds).

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Is it not 46 unknown cards or am I missing something?

Christian_Peters · #19 12-29-2006, 06:56 PM

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Actually, Im folding the turn. Villain didnt only 3bet PF, he did it OOP. So we could still be up against QQ. But after his flop reraise, I dont think queens are still in our range.

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Let's not put so much emphasis on statistics and mechanistic play that we forget about an important variable - the bluff. People do get out of line. A 3-bet from the small blind usually means QQ-AA, AK but not always.

Christian_Peters · #20 12-29-2006, 07:12 PM

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Grunch.

Villain has one of the following hands (most times)according to your read: AK, KQ, KJ, 66, 88, AXh.

I call down after the flop 3 bet and expect to lose.

Edit: I missed that villain 3 bet pf. AA, KK and QQ are now in the mix. And KJ, 66, and probably Axh are out of the mix.

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FYP