(PS $2/$4): Another AA in Big Pot

[Scotch78]

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Youre ahead often

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This is the part that has me debating my play. I do not think I'm ahead often. I think I'm ahead maybe 25-40%.

Scott

[milesdyson]

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Fair enough, please do likewise.

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Nah, it's obvious you could use the poker advice, so if you put up a good fight, I'll help you out with poker as a show of respect.

Scott

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Raise the flop. Bet/call the turn.

[Oink]

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Raise the flop. Bet/call the turn.

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[Scotch78]

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Raise the flop.

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I strongly disagree with that line. Raising offers zero protection, so it has to be for straight value. In which case, 3betting the button is vastly superior. I am only losing EV if the button fails to raise, and with just 2 SB left in a 16 SB pot, I think he's going all-in with pretty much anything.

Scott

[Scotch78]

For those of you so clearly advocating a turn bet, what confluence of opponents' hands are you expecting? How often do you think I am ahead? How many outs are you giving me when behind?

Scott

[milesdyson]

I don't understand why you think you knew that button was going to raise the flop.

MP has anything. QJ, AQ, KJ, random aces hands, clubs, etc. You beat all of these hands.

SB's flop donk is likely a weak pair or a draw - none of which improved on the turn unless he hit two pair with KQ, QT, or had clubs that straightened up.

Button is all-in.

You have AA on a K8T,Q board and you have two opponents. One raised preflop in fairly late position and just called a ton of bets on the flop, which you should expect him to do with a very wide range of hands. The other player called a million bets in the small blind like a huge fish and donked into you on the K8T flop and decided his hand was only good enough to go into call-down mode after he was raised only once - by an all-in player.

So you can say you're ahead 25% of the time or some other ridiculous amount of the time, you can get angry at someone for trying to give you advice and missing that you had a gutshot, you can "strongly disagree," etc., or you can play like a sane human being and raise the flop the first time because you don't have superhuman powers that tell you button will conveniently allow you to put more bets in on the flop. Then, you can do some fairly rudimentary hand reading to make the decision to value bet the turn.

Sorry if anything I have said above is rude, but you are being passive-aggressive, and you're making me tilt 5 minutes before I go home from work.

[Scotch78]

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I don't understand why you think you knew that button was going to raise the flop.

MP has anything. QJ, AQ, KJ, random aces hands, clubs, etc. You beat all of these hands.

SB's flop donk is likely a weak pair or a draw - none of which improved on the turn unless he hit two pair with KQ, QT, or had clubs that straightened up.

Button is all-in.

You have AA on a K8T,Q board and you have two opponents. One raised preflop in fairly late position and just called a ton of bets on the flop, which you should expect him to do with a very wide range of hands. The other player called a million bets in the small blind like a huge fish and donked into you on the K8T flop and decided his hand was only good enough to go into call-down mode after he was raised only once - by an all-in player.

So you can say you're ahead 25% of the time or some other ridiculous amount of the time, you can get angry at someone for trying to give you advice and missing that you had a gutshot, you can "strongly disagree," etc., or you can play like a sane human being and raise the flop the first time because you don't have superhuman powers that tell you button will conveniently allow you to put more bets in on the flop. Then, you can do some fairly rudimentary hand reading to make the decision to value bet the turn.

Sorry if anything I have said above is rude, but you are being passive-aggressive, and you're making me tilt 5 minutes before I go home from work.

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Haha, except for putting you on tilt, this is the type of reply I was trying to elicit. Thank you. I still maintain that calling the flop bet is correct--the button has to go all-in less than 50% of the time for raising to be superior (even less if he would fold to my raise), and I think your average Joe pushes pretty close to 100%.

However, you are making a good argument for there being value in a turn bet.

Oh, and it wasn't just the gutshot that kevin missed, I had two likely outs to top set and a lot of outs to counterfeit two pair as well.

Scott

[naphand]

I do not think I can add anything more to milesdyson's post in terms of analysis, his thinking is spot on. Why are you always trying to be oh-so-clever at this level?

Not betting this Turn would be weak in the extreme, I cannot comprehend not betting and allowing a bunch of draws a free card. If raised you can obviously call. Yes it is an unwelcome card but grow some and bet until you are told to stop.

I do not agree that button will push the Flop reliably enough for you to try this play, but if you play that way and are happy with it, fine.

With Button all-in it is even more important you bet to get value from the other two and build a side pot in the event Button sucks. Not that I am particularly worried about button, but your value comes from betting this Turn, not staining your underwear and checking, gad!


PS
Was this some kind of semi-bluff ;o)

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my posts generally have a lot of table reads...(from your e-mail)

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First orbit, so very little for reads...(from your post)

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Wanker! (as we like to say in the UK)

[jgarrett32]

Reasonable minds can disagree on the flop play. If nothing else you kept the pot small with 1 pair, and if it looks safe on the turn you can pump it on the big bet street. Although you decided to call then 3 bet the flop which makes no sense, if you want to pump it just raise right away. Because all you have done now is given everyone odds to call down with bottom pair or gutshots or other weird hands. NOT GOOD WITH JUST 1 PAIR.

But for the love of God, bet the turn when they check to you!!!!!! Letting someone hit something to beat you there is devasting in a big pot, and if you lose 2 turn bets and 1 river bet then you shrug it off and move on, knowing you did everything you could to protect your hand.

Another advantage of betting the turn, is if you get really scared on the river, u can check and show it down for free. Even though I still bet thr river with the majority of the turn cards

[Scotch78]

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PS
Was this some kind of semi-bluff ;o) [ QUOTE ]
my posts generally have a lot of table reads...(from your e-mail)

[/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ]
First orbit, so very little for reads...(from your post)

[/ QUOTE ] Wanker! (as we like to say in the UK)

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Oh! Woe! Woe! What dire straits thou must be enduring to have no recourse but misquoting private communications. But, fear not! As I staked you before, I shall help you now. Mine heart cracks and crumbles, even as a mountain in a tempest, at the sad plight that hath struck low my friend.

Return to India! Cleanse thy soul! And upon thy return, seek me out in the halls of Valhalla, and I shall offer thee nectar to supple that thou may grow strong again.

Pommie bird! (as we free people like to say outside the UK)

Scott