5/10 Why hasn't he folded yet? - Page 2

DemonDeac · #11 02-04-2006, 10:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why did you bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

would u rather c/r?

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts as well. I like my flop bet here. I have TP with a gutshot, so my equity is probably fairly strong unless I am dominated. A c/r could miss, and I'd hate to give a free card to AK. And if overcards raise, I can 3-bet. If the other donk cold-calls, even better.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea. i like a bet too, especially with the gutshot

Shillx · #12 02-04-2006, 10:30 PM

I have TP with a gutshot, so my equity is probably fairly strong unless I am dominated.

Not a reason to bet. Your equity is good when you have AJ on a A73 board and the other dude has 88+/AK/AQ, but betting probably isn't the best option.

A c/r could miss, and I'd hate to give a free card to AK.

Good point.

And if overcards raise, I can 3-bet.

This may or may not be a good assumption, but this is really the only reason to bet the flop. If he will never raise a worse hand, it is pointless to bet (assuming he always bets when checked to). Assuming that people will raise AK is a mistake imho.

That leads to the river play. You felt like he would raise a worse hand on the flop so it makes sense that you would check and call the river. He isn't calling with any of these worse hands, but he might bluff them. If he happens to have a worse jack, he will bet when you check so you aren't missing out on value by checking.

I would check/raise the flop fwiw. And if it got HU on the river after check/raising the flop, I would bet on the end since we could have been semi-bluffing the whole way. The frequency of someone bet/3betting as a semibluff doesn't merit a river call with K-high here, so you try and induce a bluff from him.

private joker · #13 02-04-2006, 10:34 PM

Good post, Brad.

toss · #14 02-04-2006, 10:40 PM

I like the semibluff argument.

7stud · #15 02-05-2006, 01:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Tell me if my ranges are wrong

276 games 0.005 secs 55,200 games/sec

Board: 8d 7h Jd 2c 2h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.4348 % 55.43% 00.00% { 99+, AJs+, A8s, KJs, QJs, JTs, AKo, AJo, A8o, KJo, QJo, JTo }
Hand 2: 44.5652 % 44.57% 00.00% { J9s }

[/ QUOTE ]

Where did you get your results?

Bubbles · #16 02-05-2006, 02:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Tell me if my ranges are wrong

276 games 0.005 secs 55,200 games/sec

Board: 8d 7h Jd 2c 2h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.4348 % 55.43% 00.00% { 99+, AJs+, A8s, KJs, QJs, JTs, AKo, AJo, A8o, KJo, QJo, JTo }
Hand 2: 44.5652 % 44.57% 00.00% { J9s }

[/ QUOTE ]

Where did you get your results?

[/ QUOTE ]
PokerStove.

private joker · #17 02-06-2006, 04:00 PM

I decided to check/call and hope to induce a bluff. I induced a bet from AJ and MHING.

W. Deranged · #18 02-06-2006, 04:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Shill,

I like a flop bet, personally. The board is draw heavy, which means that CO is going to raise you with tons of crap. I like the opportunity to pressure the small blind who may have gutshot and overcard outs against us that we want him folding.

If I were the small blind rather than the big blind I'd prefer a check-raise.

W. Deranged · #19 02-06-2006, 04:05 PM

I much prefer bet-folding to check-calling here.

My thought is this: instead of thinking about how our opponent could have a draw, think about how our opponent may think that WE have a draw. Because the hand started as a blind-steal situation, and because the board is so draw heavy, my thought is that our opponent might well call us down with tons of stuff here, including unimproved As. Because I have a suspicion that his calling range here would be wide, I like betting.

I'd need a special reason to think he was particularly aggressive on the river to check. If we check we let him off the hook with big As and smaller pairs too often, all of which I imagine he'll call with a reasonable amount of the time.

jason_t · #20 02-07-2006, 04:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why did you bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

would u rather c/r?

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts as well. I like my flop bet here. I have TP with a gutshot, so my equity is probably fairly strong unless I am dominated. A c/r could miss, and I'd hate to give a free card to AK. And if overcards raise, I can 3-bet. If the other donk cold-calls, even better.

[/ QUOTE ]

rofl u nvr lrn.