NBA Player Props - Page 2

BarryLyndon · #11 12-18-2006, 05:37 PM

I placed this bet as well.

Baron Davis doesn't understand what the word "Defense" means. He has a big body and can play Kidd physically, but something tells me he is going to be too busy running the score up to defend Kidd. Kidd should involve himself in all aspects of the game tonight and work his way freely through GS's defense. Losses to Detroit and Toronto should make GS a nice target for Kidd to get his team a W the only way they know how - by outplaying another small ball team using small ball themselves.

alecb · #12 12-19-2006, 11:14 AM

I'm sure a lot of people's worst dream came true when they saw Cinci fall down by two touchdowns in the 3rd quarter after they had run the ball 13 times with Rudi in the first half. Sure enough Cinci didn't run the ball at all in the fourth and we were left 2 rushes short of going over (damn!). Same feeling going into the second half of the Nets/Warriors game, with Kidd only having 10 TOTAL points, rebounds, and assists. But a good second half put him a couple of points over. Lewis bet was the easiest against a pourous Memphis D, he went over 29 P+R by the second minute of the third quarter. In retrospect, it would have been smart to put money on Dirk over 33 P+R as he ended up having a very big night (29 points, 13 rebounds).

2-1 last night, 6-5 total, +6.1 units.

By the way, I'm doing much, much better with player props then straight up plays. I infact had my first huge 0-fer last night, betting on Seattle and Bengals moneyline, Wizards, Kings, and Jazz spread, Missouri State and Tennessee spread. I think I'm a pretty good person to fade right now on the games themselves, but I'll post my player props on this thread later today.

BarryLyndon · #13 12-19-2006, 11:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sure a lot of people's worst dream came true when they saw Cinci fall down by two touchdowns in the 3rd quarter after they had run the ball 13 times with Rudi in the first half. Sure enough Cinci didn't run the ball at all in the fourth and we were left 2 rushes short of going over (damn!). Same feeling going into the second half of the Nets/Warriors game, with Kidd only having 10 TOTAL points, rebounds, and assists. But a good second half put him a couple of points over. Lewis bet was the easiest against a pourous Memphis D, he went over 29 P+R by the second minute of the third quarter. In retrospect, it would have been smart to put money on Dirk over 33 P+R as he ended up having a very big night (29 points, 13 rebounds).

2-1 last night, 6-5 total, +6.1 units.

By the way, I'm doing much, much better with player props then straight up plays. I infact had my first huge 0-fer last night, betting on Seattle and Bengals moneyline, Wizards, Kings, and Jazz spread, Missouri State and Tennessee spread. I think I'm a pretty good person to fade right now on the games themselves, but I'll post my player props on this thread later today.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alec,

I didn't touch that [censored] Rudi Johnson pick. It looked too "obvious," which I do think is a factor every so often to be considered. Let it be stated that in NFL player props, factoring in which team is going to control the ball more is something I feel that a majority of bettors probably ignore.

I think I put in a total of 15 seconds of thought before taking Kidd on the over. GS was just going to leave too much space for Kidd to do his work.

alecb · #14 12-19-2006, 08:22 PM

I don't have time for a detailed post, but there are 2 great props on Bodog right now both in the PHO/TOR game. The worry here again is that it will be a blow out. But that is outweighed by a tremendous positive that Tor plays Phoenix's style but is missing their best player. Also add to the fact that these are very soft lines:

Shawn Marion (PHX) Ov. 19½ Pts -135
Steve Nash (PHX) Ov. 34 P+R+A -140

8 units on both of these.

6-5 record, +5.2 units.

brendanb438 · #15 12-20-2006, 12:17 AM

Screwed by Phoenix being up a bunch and sitting them for most of the 4th quarter.

Bah.

-Brendan

alecb · #16 12-20-2006, 11:48 AM

Yup! It happened. Nash had 30 total PRA and Marion 17 points going into the fourth.. and guess what! They didn't play for the rest of the game. My apologies and better analysis coming for today's picks.

6-7 record, -11.8 units.

alecb · #17 12-20-2006, 05:43 PM

Tonight is the night I come back after some disastrously close picks that went out of my favor. Here are my picks tonight:

Steve Nash (PHX) Ov. 34½ P+R+A -120
Shawn Marion (PHX) Ov. 20 Pts -115

I absolutely love both of these picks. The Nuggets are depleted at the guard position, with Andre Miller (traded) or AI (yet to join the Nuggets). The Nuggets play the same style of basketball as the Suns but are missing the majority of their starters in this game. Who do they still have? Camby, who should neutralize Amare and make Phoenix focus the offense more on Nash and Marion. In December, Nash has gone over 34 PRA 6 out of 9 games (66%), and I do not see the Nuggets slowing down the Suns. Marion has gone over 20 points 5 of 9 times in December. I honestly see both bets going over by the beginning of the second half in a very high scoring game.

10 units on both for over.

Deron Williams (UTA) Ov. 27½ P+A EVEN

I like this pick for a few reasons. Williams, for the month of December, has gone 5-9 over 27 P+A. I have no clue why this would be an even bet. Second, they are playing Atlanta, which is incredibly weak at the guard position after the injury to Joe Johnson. This will be an up tempo game, and I expect Williams to pour in the assists. Finally, the game against the Knicks on Monday was lost after the Jazz took a 20 + point lead into the second quarter, sat all of their starters for 8 minutes, and then saw the game become tied by halftime. I see Williams, Boozer, etc. playing 40+ minutes tonight with Sloan going for the jugular by not resting his starters.

4 units on over.

Thremp · #18 12-20-2006, 05:46 PM

Could you keep track of ROI with this graduated betting?

silentbob · #19 12-20-2006, 10:36 PM

Just out of curiosity, do you think betting overs in NBA props is +EV in the long run?

dreamcrusha · #20 12-21-2006, 12:04 AM

I am with SilentBob on this one. OVER on player props is -EV. Betting OVER is the easy way out (same thing as betting on the Favorite) unless you can rationalize it with statistical reasoning or there are extenuating circumstances. Don't be donk- the smart money is on dogs and UNDER in most situations.