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#11
12-17-2006, 01:50 PM
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Re: big draw on turn, played by good 2p2er
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] push [/ QUOTE ] Since you gave no reasoning I assume you didn't put any thought into this post, so I won't bother asking for your logic behind it. You have many outs, he's obviously calling a push, and you're obviously behind at this point. Why not wait to see if you hit? Your straight and flush are probably your only clean outs, while your trips MAY be good. I find it hard to believe you're not getting any value if you hit, which would be an argument towards a push. [/ QUOTE ] I think 2p2ers are all FOS in blind battles, which is why i push. So there. 
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#12
12-17-2006, 01:50 PM
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Re: big draw on turn, played by good 2p2er
Fair enough.
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#16
12-17-2006, 01:59 PM
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Re: big draw on turn, played by good 2p2er
[ QUOTE ]
Pushing is not good imo. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure about that. [ QUOTE ] He's not gonna fold. [/ QUOTE ] OK, I feel strongly that "there's no such thing as zero folding equity": see the Happy Thread where Isura folded someone out of a $216.15 pot by raising his $75 lead to $79.65 (all-in). However I'm willing to grant that this statement is usually true, so we can't count much on FE here. [ QUOTE ] And calling is always going to be profitable [/ QUOTE ] Oooh, this is the part I don't like. [ QUOTE ] because you have immediate odds to do so agst his range, which has alot of sets in it, which you are 1:2 agst, and worse, which you are far better against. [/ QUOTE ] Let's say that villain's range includes the sets that are putting a hurt on us and also better flush draws. On the river, villain will have an effective stack of 3/4ths-pot behind. If villain open-pushes every river, where are we getting our odds? We're drawing to a non-nut flush, and if villain pushes a club we'll grit our teeth and call, right? What about when the river is a non-club brick? Are we folding when villain pushes his A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]? When we spike a river 6 and villain pushes his A8o, we fold? We might have the best hand and we might have the best draw, but we probably don't have both. The trick is that we'll never know which we have unless we see a showdown, and I don't like the "call-and-reevaluate" flavor of the posts in this thread. For 3/4ths pot, I say push and let VILLAIN reevaluate. We have a ton of outs, but they're all tainted, and we'll never know which ones are good. Rather than second-guess ourselves when a Q falls, let's just get it all in and see where the chips go. We've got a 40 BB overlay, a weakly-made hand, and a combo draw; let's see what happens. If we knew villain was incapable of firing a third barrel, or if we knew villain was a passive player, or if we knew he doesn't play draws aggressively, or if we knew...heck, ANYTHING...we might be better off smooth-calling. In this case, I think you just push and pray.
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#17
12-17-2006, 02:00 PM
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Re: big draw on turn, played by good 2p2er
I really don't think it's a toss-up at all. I think you're in a +EV situation and pushing lessens your equity substantially. Your fold equity is pretty much zero, and you'll most likely get payed off when you hit anyway.
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