best sports prediction of all-time

[Dominic]

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Joe Namath's "guarantee".

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Joe Namath's guarantee wasn't as extraordinary as reported. He has commented on this in the past and again just recently on 60 minutes.

What happened was that the reporters were dogging him aboout the Jets being such big underdogs and after repeatedly asking him if he really thought the Jets had a chance, he said the Jets would win and then he was asked if he guaranteed it and he said yes I guarantee we will win.

So, in context, it was not a Mohammed Ali type boast but rather more of a defensive reply.

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Besides, what the hell is he supposed to say? I never did see what the big deal about this was - all athletes "predict" they're gonna win on Sunday, you know?

[wh1t3bread]

Mark Messier's "We Will Win Tonight". Followed up by a Hat Trick in Game 6 and Stanley Cup later:



Probably not the best all-time. But definitely my favorite.

[mosdef]

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gotta be sportscaster Paul McGuire predicting the then-best team in the NFL - the streaking 10-1 NY Jets - wouldn't win another game the rest of the 1986 season. They didn't, and finished 10-6, limping into the playoffs, where they lost to the Browns.

I remember McGuire stating his case on one of the Sunday pre-game shows and everybody laughed at him. But he stood by his prediction and was proven right. Pretty amazing.

Can anybody beat that?

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I predict that this post is going to be entirely composed of the minority of people who took the low probability end of a forecast and when the low probability came through they were proclaimed geniuses.

Six people get together and roll a fair die. Each person predicts a different outcome. A two is rolled. Do we have one genius and five idiots?

[Triumph36]

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gotta be sportscaster Paul McGuire predicting the then-best team in the NFL - the streaking 10-1 NY Jets - wouldn't win another game the rest of the 1986 season. They didn't, and finished 10-6, limping into the playoffs, where they lost to the Browns.

I remember McGuire stating his case on one of the Sunday pre-game shows and everybody laughed at him. But he stood by his prediction and was proven right. Pretty amazing.

Can anybody beat that?

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I predict that this post is going to be entirely composed of the minority of people who took the low probability end of a forecast and when the low probability came through they were proclaimed geniuses.

Six people get together and roll a fair die. Each person predicts a different outcome. A two is rolled. Do we have one genius and five idiots?

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No - but that's an absurd way to look at it. The fact is, McGuire's prediction was incredibly bold, and he turned out to be right - naturally he's lucky to be right, but there's still some element of prescience. If the 10-1 Jets were 14th in league DVOA and JoA and the FO crowd were on here saying they have a hard schedule and they may go 2-3 or 1-4 in that stretch and were right, would we be praising them? Of course.

I'd also like to nominate myself for predicting a minor NHL trade and all three parts of the deal.

[JaredL]

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gotta be sportscaster Paul McGuire predicting the then-best team in the NFL - the streaking 10-1 NY Jets - wouldn't win another game the rest of the 1986 season. They didn't, and finished 10-6, limping into the playoffs, where they lost to the Browns.

I remember McGuire stating his case on one of the Sunday pre-game shows and everybody laughed at him. But he stood by his prediction and was proven right. Pretty amazing.

Can anybody beat that?

[/ QUOTE ]

I predict that this post is going to be entirely composed of the minority of people who took the low probability end of a forecast and when the low probability came through they were proclaimed geniuses.

Six people get together and roll a fair die. Each person predicts a different outcome. A two is rolled. Do we have one genius and five idiots?

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No - but that's an absurd way to look at it. The fact is, McGuire's prediction was incredibly bold, and he turned out to be right - naturally he's lucky to be right, but there's still some element of prescience. If the 10-1 Jets were 14th in league DVOA and JoA and the FO crowd were on here saying they have a hard schedule and they may go 2-3 or 1-4 in that stretch and were right, would we be praising them? Of course.

I'd also like to nominate myself for predicting a minor NHL trade and all three parts of the deal.

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Would you remember how much of an idiot he was if the Jets went 3 - 2 and won a playoff game?

[miajag]

Don't remember the exact quote, but Jamal Lewis basically predicted he would break the single-game rushing record against the Browns a couple days before he did it back in 2003.

[mosdef]

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that's an absurd way to look at it. The fact is, McGuire's prediction was incredibly bold, and he turned out to be right - naturally he's lucky to be right

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You're failing, IMO, to differentiate between being "bold" and just making a stupid prediction that you need to be lucky to get right. The advantage of this is that no one bothers to remember all the crazy [censored] you say when it doesn't come through. Here we are years after the fact and OP can remember this "bold prediction" by McGuire. Can he remember all the other low probability predictions that people made that year? Should McGuire get any recognition for being lucky? No.

[PokerFink]

All,

The Ali, Messier, Namath, et. all guarentees don't deserve to be anywhere on this list. Yes, they are famous. Yes, they are fun for the fans of those teams. BUT IT'S ONE [censored] GAME. Players make guarentees all the time, because they know if they are wrong it DOESN'T MATTER IN THE SLIGHTEST. It's a no-lose situation.

Things like Nantz predicting the Tampa-Oakland Super Bowl, or Aaron Shatz predicting in the middle of the season LAST YEAR that the Chargers would win the SB this year are impressive, assuming that one comes true of course.

[miajag]

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Jim Fassel's guarantee that the Giants would make the playoffs when they were almost mathematically out of it is pretty cool if you're a Giants fan.

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They were 7-4 when he made that prediction, far from being mathematically out of it. I never understood why it was a big deal.

[PokerFink]

IIRC, the Giants were 6-6 when he made that prediction. He said they would run the table and go 10-6, and they did.