20/180, To what degree can I assume villain is logical?

[BigAlK]

My immediate thought was that villian has a queen and is afraid of spades. A queen with an unknown kicker (not A or K of spades) is what I'd expect to see if I called. The other possibility although less likely is A, maybe K, of spades. Either way I fold. I think you're good here 30% of the time at most. Even those times you're good on the flop the chance of your hand holding up aren't very good.

[Cornell Fiji]

IMO this is a very easy call with the jack of spades.


A little math and a little analysis...

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edit: for simplification purposes I assumed that this was not a planned stop and go with the villain having a hand like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Obviously if this is possible then the math shifts further in favor of a call

When I call and am ahead (be it that I am against AsX or TsTd) I am ~55% to win the hand.

When I call and I am against a Queen with no spade I am 10% to win the hand.

I am calling 1590 to win 3830.

So if I am ahead X% and behind Y% the calculation comes to this being a +cEV call iff:
X(.55*3820-.45*1590)-Y(.9*1590-.1*3820) > 0
=>
X(1386) - Y(1031) > 0
=>
X=.744, Y=.256

in order for this to be a +cEV call X needs to be greater than 74.4%.

With 75 players left I am definitely willing to take a coinflip in this spot to build up my stack

Interestingly, 6 people have said that this is a call but only 3 people thought that I was ahead of the villain 75%+ of the time which means that a few of us are not too good with our math.
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I don't know if I am convinced that the villain is open pushing with a queen+ 25% of the time in this spot. Keep in mind that this pot is significant to the villains stack and by pushing he is intentionally pricing out all draws meaning that he really wants to just take it down with his bet and is hoping to not get called. Logically, this is a bad push for a player with a queen to be making (unless he is thinking that a player with red jacks will think that this is a bad push and therefore will call but I don't think the avg 20/180s are thinking on that level)

I am very interested in what the other 180 man ballers have to say about the chance that the villain is open pushing with a queen here as I would like to build a general read on the 20/180 opponents as this seems like a fun low stakes tournament to start multitabling at times that the big MTTs are not running. These poll results are a lot of fun for me... so far the vast majority of people think that the villain is open pushing a queen more than 50% of the time on this flop.

-Steve

[Cornell Fiji]

Assume hero has J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]...

[valenzuela]

This isnt a hand where you are defenetly ahead or defenetly behind. Unless villain has a Q or a flush.
I wouldnt expect a flush, though I would expect a Q with a non spade card.
All the other hands, except from bluffs, are basically him having between 11 to 15 outs.

You have 2530 chips if you fold.
940 if you call and lose.
4820 if you call and win.
Basically you have the dillema of risking 1590 chips for 2290 chips.
You need to win the hand 40% of the time to make a profitable +EV call.
I guess Im folding.

[NoahSD]

This is a fold because his push is a like always a hand that beats yours that's scared of the flush draw.

[valenzuela]

LOL, I read villain has the other jacks, and I was like wtf

[HerbieGRD]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if I am convinced that the villain is open pushing with a queen+ 25% of the time in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no way your average 20/180 villain has a hand you are currently ahead of 75% of the time here - no way.

That said one thing you left out of your analysis was dumb bluff equity - where villain is pushing something ridiculous like A6h or 89c just because he thinks you will fold a lot.

I would guesstimate you are

Slightly ahead 35%
Way behind 60%
Way ahead (dumb bluff) 5%

This also means that some of the people responding could reasonably think you are ahead <75% but still think a call is good without being bad at math [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[Cornell Fiji]

Herbie,
Looks like I edited my post just in time... didn't want to redo the math but this is certaintly a possibility and it also negates my wiseass comment about posters being bad at math.

I find it interesting that you can be so confident that he is not pushing a hand that I am ahead of 75% of the time while the majority of posters think that I am way behind more than 50% of the time. My first instinct was that you were correct but I am not experienced in this game.

Do you play a lot of 20/180s?

[HerbieGRD]

20/180s specifically I have played ~20, I am not a huge volume player at anything but my normal buyins range from $10-$30 for regular tournaments as well - I play some higher and some lower but majority in that range. The play has always seemed fairly similar to me between the 180s and the regular tournies at those buyin levels but 180s being a little more loose/aggro especially early.

That said I have found these weird overbets on really scary boards to be scared "protect my not so strong hand" pushes slightly more often than "semibluff my big draw" pushes - I just don't think I could be convinced that he is doing this with less than a Queen 75% of the time - 75% is a huge number.

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a fold because his push is a like always a hand that beats yours that's scared of the flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]