Do I give him credit, or did everyone read HoH?

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He probably has a real hand. Theere is a good chance you are dominated, but he could have 99 or AQ-AK. Plus you have pot odds. You are calling 12.5 K to win 29.5K, so you are getting 2.3-1 odds. I think this is a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get the rationale.

You are probably at least 50% to be dominated, 4-1 dog.

You probably have a 5% chance to be dominating, a 1-4 fave.

You're probably 45% chance to be a small fave in a race with AK or AQ, 45-55 or so.

How does that equate to justifying a 2.3-1 call?

I'm not saying I muck here all the time, but it looks that way unless the opponent has shown a tendency to push with less.

In the little UB MTTs where I'm usually lurking, my estimates show a big preflop reraise is about a 1-2 chance to be AA, KK, QQ or AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Say there is a 50% chance you are up against JJ-AA and a 50% chance of AJ-AK or KQ. .5 * .20 + .5 * .56 = .38. So a 38% chance of winning.

You are getting 2.4-1 odds, so you are putting in 1/3.4 = 29% of the money.

So you are putting in 29% of the money and have a 38% chance of winning. That seems significantly cEV+.

I think it may be better than this, as there is some chance of a straight squeeze play with a restealing hand or 99 or A9 or something.

Frequently it is correct to call a reraise allin with a medium pp. You have pot odds and you are about 4-3 against AK oe similar hands.

Say there was a 75% chance of a higher pair and a 25% chance of overcards. .75 *.2 + .25 *.56 = .29. So this would be cEV even. Now there is nowhere near these percentages, so this is definately cEV+.

[Spee]

That's fair enough.

If it's a borderline call, for me this is more read dependent than anything. What has the guy shown me in over the last 2 hours of play? Is he at all tricky or are most of his moves pretty straightforward. If he's a TAG then he could well have the preflop nuts. That doesn't necessarily mean a call is a horrible thing.

For me, a lot will also depend on how things are on the table. Have I been moving a lot of chips? Am I reasonably confident of being able to rebuild my stack if I take one up the gazoo? Do I have reasonably good control over the other players at the table?

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
That's fair enough.

If it's a borderline call, for me this is more read dependent than anything. What has the guy shown me in over the last 2 hours of play? Is he at all tricky or are most of his moves pretty straightforward. If he's a TAG then he could well have the preflop nuts. That doesn't necessarily mean a call is a horrible thing.

For me, a lot will also depend on how things are on the table. Have I been moving a lot of chips? Am I reasonably confident of being able to rebuild my stack if I take one up the gazoo? Do I have reasonably good control over the other players at the table?

[/ QUOTE ]

I just showed that this is very cEV+. Unless for some reason you really don't want to gamble, this is not a borderline call.

[AcesWired]

I could have sworn I was the villain when I first read this from a tournament recently. I went back and checked my history though and I wasn't. But it played out almost EXACTLY the same way. I had an M of 6~7 in MP, and pushed with AKs behind a raise from an EP. He called and flipped over tens.

[rockin]

Betgo's right, this isn't even close. 2.3:1 odds and villain closing in on desperation. CALL.

[rockin]

REraised with TT? god I luv this game.