Movies 12/15 to 12/18

[brendanb438]

You guys are both correct about your theatre and screen order info. Screen Order means that say a theatre has a 500 seater, 450 seater, 400 seater, etc. That is the order they are filling the units in across the company of theatres. So Eragon and CW might be in more theatres, but Pursuit is looking like it will get more individual screens. Meaning more screen time and $$$$$.

-Brendan

[thing85]

In that case, change "open in more theaters" to "play on more screens" in my previous post.

Brendan, what are your thoughts on the movies this week so far?

[brendanb438]

I am leaning towards the under on CW, and the overs on Eragon and Pursuit. I really think Pursuit is going to breakout this weekend. This might be my big play of the winter. Could use another Saw 3 or POTC2 betting performance.

Hey Utah were you at man? Been quite here without you.

-Brendan

[BarryLyndon]

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I am leaning towards the under on CW, and the overs on Eragon and Pursuit. I really think Pursuit is going to breakout this weekend. This might be my big play of the winter. Could use another Saw 3 or POTC2 betting performance.

Hey Utah were you at man? Been quite here without you.

-Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

Last week, "The Holiday" and "Apocolypto" squared off. One got 14 million, the other got 13 million (approx), and that minority movie broke 6 million. If you took the under on Holiday or Apocolypto, you would have won.

This week, you have Charlotte's web, Pursuit of Happyness, and Eragon. There is possibly an appreciable cross section between Web/Pursuit. Both feel good family films.

Pursuit of Happyness has Will Smith, but when the [censored] did he become this box office rake guy in terms of DRAMAS. This is not a summer film. It's a winter oscar buzz family film. Does that mean the film won't be successful? No. Does it meant that the argument supports betting on the under? yes.

And then we have Charlotte's web. Guh. I haven't heard a damn thing about this film. Happy Feet is still out there too, right? Also, and this has no logical contribution to the argument, but [censored] Dakota Fanning.

That both of these films surface at around 20 mil on the over/under is an argument to take both of them on the under. Especially considering that the film climate for this year is kinduv ass.

Is the Good German being released widely this weekend? If so, factor that in against Pursuit of Happyness.

[Utah]

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Hey Utah were you at man? Been quite here without you

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a very nice position this week as I have arbs + middles on everything:

Charlottes: $23M-$25M
Eragon: $22M-$23M
Happyness: $17M-$19M

I got a max bet in on both sides for all {before the lines became unfavorable} so it is Plus roughly $220s on the middles and $20s if it falls outside the middles. The lines moved super fast and all bets were placed within about 10 minutes of the lines opening. The first bets were all placed within 10 seconds of the lines opening as they all opened way off.

I am then playing another unit on Charlottes Web on the Under $23M at +130. I have heard zero buzz for this movie. My two girls ages 8 and 9 havent even heard it was out and they have zero interest in seeing it. I cant see boys going to this and I have yet to see an ad on TV for it. Happy Feet is still out there as well. On the overside is the high screen count and the very positive reviews. I went bac k over the last 5 years and I didnt see a big trend for this kind of movie. So, under looks strong. I may play more under before the week is up

Eragon. I have another unit on the over 22M at -150. I dont really know much about this movie but the presales are very strong so I took a flier.

Happyness. I have another unit on the over 18M at -150. I dont have a great feeling either way on this and it is really just an action play.

Good luck this weekend everyone.

[brendanb438]

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[ QUOTE ]
I am leaning towards the under on CW, and the overs on Eragon and Pursuit. I really think Pursuit is going to breakout this weekend. This might be my big play of the winter. Could use another Saw 3 or POTC2 betting performance.

Hey Utah were you at man? Been quite here without you.

-Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

Last week, "The Holiday" and "Apocolypto" squared off. One got 14 million, the other got 13 million (approx), and that minority movie broke 6 million. If you took the under on Holiday or Apocolypto, you would have won.

This week, you have Charlotte's web, Pursuit of Happyness, and Eragon. There is possibly an appreciable cross section between Web/Pursuit. Both feel good family films.

Pursuit of Happyness has Will Smith, but when the [censored] did he become this box office rake guy in terms of DRAMAS. This is not a summer film. It's a winter oscar buzz family film. Does that mean the film won't be successful? No. Does it meant that the argument supports betting on the under? yes.

And then we have Charlotte's web. Guh. I haven't heard a damn thing about this film. Happy Feet is still out there too, right? Also, and this has no logical contribution to the argument, but [censored] Dakota Fanning.

That both of these films surface at around 20 mil on the over/under is an argument to take both of them on the under. Especially considering that the film climate for this year is kinduv ass.

Is the Good German being released widely this weekend? If so, factor that in against Pursuit of Happyness.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, Minors didn't go over $6 Mill, Apoc did $15+ and if you bet the under on both Apoc and on Holiday for even amounts than you had a losing weekend. Holiday under was at huge -odds while Apoc under was no where near the same +odds to balance out.

Good German isn't being released wide this weekend so there isn't any competition against Pursuit there. Also Pursuit is going to draw in older audiences more so than the kiddies going to see CW. I don't see each of these movies audiences really overlapping too much.

The last couple weeks have been blah in box office $$$ but this weekend is the offical start of the holiday box office rush. The top 3 movies this weekend last year did $94 Mill between them. The year before $65 Mill with the top 3 which was lacking a major release other than 2 sequels, and the year before was $96 Mill top 3.

There is plenty of room for money to be spent this weekend on movies, but the trend the last 6 weeks or so has been on the unders.

-Brendan

[thing85]

Utah,

Nice arbs + middles. Could be a big weekend for you.

I still don't think Eragon is going to live up to expectations. It'll hit it big with its loyal fanbase, but outside of that, I don't see a huge appeal. Seems like this movie will be incredibly front-loaded. I think it has the potential to break out (as does any of the 3 movies this weekend) but I don't feel comfortable laying -150 or more on the over.

Once again, if you take the opposite of my analysis, you will be in a +EV position.

[brendanb438]

Pursuit got a nice increase, it went from 2500 theatres to 2852 total. Once this info gets out around the gambling communities I expect more bets to start coming in on the over. I couple different sites are reporting their estimates for Pursuit at around $20 to $22 Million based on tracking, theatres, TV Spots, interest and other things.
This is turning into my big play of the week.


Forgot to mention more buzz is coming in on CW and Eragon too. Will post final theatre counts when I get them tomorrow here.

Tomorrow morning we will get more info on presales from a couple major theatre chains which will really help with final Thursday and Friday plays. I will post that info here tomorrow morning. Night all.

-Brendan

[brendanb438]

Usual Megaplex Sales Advance -- Dec 14, 20:55


Pre-open Eragon: 40
as of 530pm





Friday:
Eragn: 79
Chweb: 24
Prhap: 11


Sat: 8 Chweb, 5 Eragn


Chweb should be able to match or slightly beat tracking.
Might be able to break $25 Mill but $30 Mill looks to be a stretch.


C Web got a huge huge huge increase from 3000+ to over 3500 theatres, which is because of tracking increasing throughout the week and theatres having more faith in this kids movie. Eragon is going to be in 3020 theatres which is expected since it was really up for more expansion.



Presales from one of the biggest theatres in Cali.
My final plays are going to be over on all 3. With big leans on CW at +odds it is at right now and also I have a decent amount on the over for Pursuit already. I am going to buy a little of Eragon also over since it is at -100 roughly odds. What is everyone else playing?

-Brendan

[llabb]

Very nice pre-sales for both Eragon and Charlotte's Web. Even with Eragon's fanboys and expected front-loading, that is a lot of tickets. Those advance sales may be even more promising for Charlotte's Web, since those types of kids/family films rarely have much in the way of pre-sales. Seems to be picking up steam lately, with the late tracking being very strong for a kids' movie.

Your Over on all 3 seems to perhaps be the way to go. Already have Overs on Eragon and Pursuit of Happyness, and thinking about taking the Charlotte Over, as the lines are pretty low currently. It wouldn't need much of a PTA to clear the line, with that huge screen count.

The last couple weeks have been disappointing at the box office, so people are probably ready to see something, and all 3 look quite appealing to different demographic segments. This is traditionally a very big weekend, with the box office having a big jump over prior weekends, and new openers have been very successful. Even Lemony Snicket got $30 million.