Have a question regarding live betting and markets

[ImBen]

If you're betting through the entire rollover randomly picking against -110 lines then virtually every sportsbook bonus has negative expected value.

Certain other strategies exist to make virtually every sportsbook bonus have positive expected value.

[Thremp]

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If you're betting through the entire rollover randomly picking against -110 lines then virtually every sportsbook bonus has negative expected value.

Certain other strategies exist to make virtually every sportsbook bonus have positive expected value.

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You are right. The referrer faces almost no burden however. It is clearly +EV for them.

For example: I refer chachi/hoqua to Greek. The give me $$$. I spend $$$. Where is the -EV?

This is like a [censored] variance in sports topic in sporting events. How do people not understand what these terms mean [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[ImBen]

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If you're betting through the entire rollover randomly picking against -110 lines then virtually every sportsbook bonus has negative expected value.

Certain other strategies exist to make virtually every sportsbook bonus have positive expected value.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right. The referrer faces almost no burden however. It is clearly +EV for them.

For example: I refer chachi/hoqua to Greek. The give me $$$. I spend $$$. Where is the -EV?

This is like a [censored] variance in sports topic in sporting events. How do people not understand what these terms mean [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Referral bonuses are a special case. Bear in mind there are generally certain terms and conditions regarding the new player's action. Also consider that you're effectively increasing your rollover as a result of the kickback.

Of course not having a deposit to rollover is a gigantic benefit, so these bonuses generally have positive expected value even for monkeys clicking buttons, provided the referee meets his end.

[playersare]

it's not the referral bonus value that needs to be analyzed. the more important fact is, accounts who refer each other will be tied together by the sportsbook for the lifetime of their activity. if management decides to kick one account out for beating them too much or otherwise making their operation difficult, all other accounts may or will be tagged as suspicious as well. one could get banned out of the blue years after the referral with no recourse, even if you can't even remember who you signed up under in the first place.

unexpectedly losing an out that makes you a few hundred a week for the rest of your life would seem to have more -EV than what could be offset by an extra $100-200 added to your initial deposit. at least that's what my calculator says.

this is especially good information for parentally subsidized, no real world experience arb donks with only 6 months of bonus whoring and no other documented legitimate ways to make money at sports, like Thremp.

[ImBen]

That is true. Taking advantage of referral bonuses at recreational and/or disreputable books isn't a good idea.

[Thremp]

The idea PA is expressing is optimal EV, not +/- EV of the bonus. Clearly the bonus is in and of itself +EV, but getting banned can result in 0EV for the future.

[playersare]

you directly said:

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they can never be -EV

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under that same mentality, robbing and killing someone would be +EV because you get a bunch of free money and the key witness is unable to testify. who cares what happens after that?

[B00T]

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I can give you a referral for a bonus at Tradesports. I would split the bonus with you.

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Well aren't you a sweetheart.

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The offer stands for you, too. By the way, MT2R kicked back half of a referral bonus to me for betwwts, thanks. Free monies are free monies and is always +EV.

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OK everyone, I will give you 2/3 of the signup bonus if you signup with me instead!!!!

Do you see where I am going with this, young grasshopper?

[Thremp]

PA,

How can taking dollars lose money? Thanks.

PS I love your example. Absurdity says hi.

[playersare]

when I visualize mommy and daddy writing out another one of your tuition checks, I suppose anything in life is possible.