Golf-Probability Question

[David Sklansky]

I alluded to this on another thread. In order to answer it accurately, one would have to have a pretty good idea about both the subject of golf and the subject of probability and statistics. The answer will get screwed up if you don't understand both. JUST LIKE SO MANY OTHER THINGS. AND GETTING THAT THROUGH ALL YOUR THICK SKULLS IS WHY I HAVE BEEN PUT ON THIS EARTH.

Where was I? Oh yeah, golf. Assume American golfers only. Rank them from one to ten million. Now assume a typical PGA men's tournament comprised of the top 150 golfers, all healthy, playing their best and trying to win. Not trying to get a minor check. 72 holes.

You are given the opportunity to nominate a golfer to be the 151st player. You are asked to pick someone who is pretty steady in his performance. Not someone whos scores are all over the place. You are also asked to pick someone who is at least 50-50 in your mind to come in at least 140th. Say you have to bet on it. In order to have a good bet, the golfer you pick should be no worse than the xth best golfer in the country. What, approximately is x?