Dementias NFL Games of the Week - Page 2

Dementia · #11 12-07-2006, 05:51 PM

Okay, they are really bad picks.

I guess we'll see if they win on Sunday. I'll be bumping this thread then.

These aren't teams with outstanding records at home, becoming too tricky and out-thinking yourself at this point in the season can really hurt your BR if you aren't well versed in handicapping, so I hope you guys are excercising good money management.

MikeyObviously · #12 12-07-2006, 06:03 PM

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I guess we'll see if they win on Sunday. I'll be bumping this thread then.

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Judging a bet by results is square too.

MCS · #13 12-07-2006, 06:03 PM

I don't think any of them are horrible picks on their own, nor do I think they're great. I won't be shocked if you win all three, nor will I be shocked if you lose all three. I think the lines are about where they should be, but whatever, bet who you want.

Sometimes there is value in road favorites, but in general, squares bet them too often. The fact that you love not only three road favorites, but three teams that the public generally loves, is a red flag to people reading your advice.

Thinking it doesn't matter how much juice you have to pay is just staggeringly bad. You seem to be assuming that these are all LOCKS OF THE YEAR!!!!!11 and so you'll just pay any price. That's a losing strategy.

BarryLyndon · #14 12-07-2006, 06:04 PM

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Colts -1 over the Jags
Pats -2 over the Dolphins
Seahawks -2 over the Cardinals

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Careful Op. I think you are treading on thin ice with these bets. All three of them in fact.

(1) Jacksonville is fighting for their lives. The colts aren't.
(2) If you saw the New England game v. Detroit, you'd know that NE is no superpower. They've locked up their division. Miami is streaky.
(3) Arizona has been scoring a ton of points lately. They made St. Louis eat humble pie. I think they are capable of screwing up a few more teams playoff dreams.

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I'm avoiding Jacksonville v. Indy altogether. Indy is a team that should win 13-14 games any season. Problem is you never quite know which 2 or 3 teams they are going to lose to. Jacksonville is a tough and physical team that loves to grind out wins. Just the type of team Indy hates facing.

NE v. Detroit is gross. NE will either blow them out or do something totally retarted to keep it close. Flip a coin.

I'm new to football, but, fwiw, my picks on a parlay are:

Seahawks over Cardinals: I appreciate that the Cardinals are scoring a lot of points and that Matt Leinart had a nice game last week against a mediocre team. However, just in case everyone is drooling over the Cowboys, the Seahawks have been playing impressive football over the past several weeks. They are a seasoned football team that, unlike the Panthers, don't look to choke late in the season. I think Seahawks is a nice pic.

Falcons over Bucs: This is a game where talent + will + positive team spirit will overcome a 3-9 team with a 1 point spread. It's really that simple. Plus, while I don't believe in athletes having "due" times for great performances, I do believe that Michael Vick is a fierce competitor who has let a lot of the B.S. of the past few weeks go. I think Falcons pull this off, perhaps easily.

3. Eagles v. Washington (-1): Taking the Eagles here. Beating the Panthers should serve as a huge morale boost. Garcia is a seasoned QB who has run into a lot of misfortunes over the years. Winning last week could lead to one hell of an offensive streak. Brian Westbrook is a beast and this team has a defense that should serve to be more than adequate against Washington's anemic rush/pass attack. I think Philly wins by 7 - 13.

Dementia · #15 12-07-2006, 06:05 PM

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I guess we'll see if they win on Sunday. I'll be bumping this thread then.

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Judging a bet by results is square too.

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I could care less what you consider to be square, I do not religiously go with the public or make my decisions solely on where the game is being played. I have been betting the NFL for a long time and my decisions have made me money. Results do matter to me in the long term. I hear what you're saying, but I disagree on the premise of these selections being bad. Everyone wins games they sometimes shouldn't, or picks a game with great value that ends up a loser, these picks however are top-notch IMHO, so the results are of course meaningful to me.

Dementia · #16 12-07-2006, 06:13 PM

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Thinking it doesn't matter how much juice you have to pay is just staggeringly bad. You seem to be assuming that these are all LOCKS OF THE YEAR!!!!!11 and so you'll just pay any price. That's a losing strategy.

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Please do not pretend to have some meaningful 'insight' onto my overall betting methods because of one statement I made. I am willing to load up on these games regardless of the juice in this instance, and if that turns out to blow up in my face I will accept my loss like a man.

Dementia · #17 12-07-2006, 06:26 PM

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WTF, why would laying -140 not matter?

Combined with your decision to load up on three publicly-loved road favorites, I conclude that you, sir, are a BSP.

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Conclude what you wish, by all means. I am willing to pay some more juice with the size of return a win would net, that probably isn't optimal or correct, but I am comfortable with it and I'm not being picky about some extra bills in a books pocket.

I don't post selections often because I know how message boards are, if I had selected the opposite in each pick you'd hit me with some other dispute on some "dude, don't out-think yourself!" tip. But, the reason I posted these is because I am legitimately comfortable with them, the rest pans out on Sunday.

GL in your decisions as well.

Performify · #18 12-07-2006, 06:35 PM

Dementia,

I'm intrigued by why you are so concerned about buying the half point from -2.5 to -2 on the two games.

Also, you've handled yourself well here despite receiving a negative reception, kudos for that. Whether you are the squarest of the squares or the sharpest of sharps, you're welcome here and hopefully everyone can be courteous and respectful while providing feedback to someone else's opinion...

soflat · #19 12-07-2006, 06:39 PM

Those are some of the squarest picks and comments I've seen yet.

And believe me, I've been a screaming square all season so I should know.

Dementia · #20 12-07-2006, 06:45 PM

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Dementia,

I'm intrigued by why you are so concerned about buying the half point from -2.5 to -2 on the two games.

Also, you've handled yourself well here despite receiving a negative reception, kudos for that. Whether you are the squarest of the squares or the sharpest of sharps, you're welcome here and hopefully everyone can be courteous and respectful while providing feedback to someone else's opinion...

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Ty. They had been sitting at -3 when I jumped on them, just now when reviewing other games 5D had the Seahawks at -2.5 for -125. I've actually got both games at -2.5 but forgot to include the .5 in the OP. They still have pats at -3 over there though.