JTs in middle position - Page 2

SeaEagle · #11 02-03-2006, 04:21 PM

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At that point you could have as many as 14 outs, probably an effective 11, and I'm perfectly happy with that

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Hmmm. Getting heads up in a smallish pot where you're surely behind and have less than a 50% chance of pulling ahead is a sure recipe for bleeding chips.

Getting a free card on this flop is a good result. Being able to call one bet closing the action or get in a value raise if there's a bet and 2 calls are both decent results. Getting HU and being behind is the worst of the lot.

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Which I also think makes the river bet better since the pot is bigger and you've represented a hand better. I don't think the river bet in this pot has any chance of folding a guy who called on the turn. The only hand you'll fold here is one you already beat...i.e. 67. Off chance you fold QJ, but not enough to take a shot at a pot < 7 BB.

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I don't understand how a bigger pot makes the river bet better. Wouldn't villian be more likely to call in a bigger pot?

Also there are a ton of better hands that would fold here - any 2 spades or any 2 hearts with one card higher than a J. I would be interested in the hand range you have for villian that is only 1/6th flush draws and 5/6ths hands that are calling down.

psuasskicker · #12 02-03-2006, 04:34 PM

Getting heads up in a smallish pot where you're surely behind and have less than a 50% chance of pulling ahead is a sure recipe for bleeding chips.

OCD: Getting heads up paying 1 BB in a 5 BB pot with a ~40% chance of winning (not counting when you are ahead because LAG raised a hand like 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) is a sure recipe for winning money.

Getting a free card isn't a bad thing, but if the LAG bets - and that's what they do so there's a pretty good chance he will - then this pot's going to start to get big. It's already a reasonable size at > 4 BB on the flop.

Getting HU and being behind is the worst of the lot.

I would agree with this if it hadn't been raised before the flop. Then you don't know what LAG will do, and the pot is small so the big draw is worth more with more players in. Here, LAG is likely to bet the flop or raise a bet since he was PFR, and the pot is getting to a size where you want to be able to win it as often as possible.

I don't understand how a bigger pot makes the river bet better. Wouldn't villian be more likely to call in a bigger pot?

Let's say villain holds a hand such as A3 or 44 here. Can you think of a villain that would change his decision to call or fold on the river with a 6.25 BB vs. 7.25 BB pot? I think it's independent. So betting the flop both represents a hand the whole way (increases likelihood villain folds), and makes the pot bigger (times villain folds for bet to be right goes down).

Also there are a ton of better hands that would fold here - any 2 spades or any 2 hearts with one card higher than a J.

I'll give you that...I hadn't thought about a higher flush draw, although I think the odds he lays down an Ace are mediocre at best...I've seen too many garbage calls like that. That said, the river bet looks better to me since you pointed out the higher flush draws that can fold.

- C -

_TKO_ · #13 02-03-2006, 04:49 PM

I think your turn bet is so clearly a bluff that most sane players are calling down with A- or even K-high. You have to hope to be up against QJ, or QT, and have her fold. But I don't bluff nearly enough on the river.

gopnik · #14 02-03-2006, 04:53 PM

I would definitely bet the flop here, not sure why you did not. I guess I'd need to know more about BB to bluff this river. Against a loose player I'd just check behind.

The Bride · #15 02-03-2006, 05:18 PM

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I think your turn bet is so clearly a bluff that most sane players are calling down with A- or even K-high. You have to hope to be up against QJ, or QT, and have her fold. But I don't bluff nearly enough on the river.

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I couldn't call this down with K-high. Not with any 9, 3 or pocket pair thinking they have a shot of the pot by the turn.

Also, the action isn't that inconsistent with whiffing the check-raise on the flop and then betting the turn, so I'm not sure it smeells that badly of a bluff.

_TKO_ · #16 02-03-2006, 05:20 PM

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the action isn't that inconsistent with whiffing the check-raise on the flop

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There's not many hands that would limp preflop and c/r this flop. You're repping the 8 on the turn, a likely checking hand on the flop.

Mister Z · #17 02-03-2006, 05:21 PM

I'm liking a bet on this flop as well. The pot isn't small, this flop most likely missed CO, we have a good number of outs, and a bet may likely buy us more outs when the limpers fold their KJ, KT, QT, etc. We're seeing this river no matter what so we might as well increase our chances of winning this pot and betting out does a better job of this. This is NOT a flop we want to see checked through.

The turn bet was great, but I'm not seeing value in the river bluff.

Mister Z · #18 02-03-2006, 05:33 PM

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I think your turn bet is so clearly a bluff that most sane players are calling down with A- or even K-high. You have to hope to be up against QJ, or QT, and have her fold. But I don't bluff nearly enough on the river.

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I couldn't call this down with K-high. Not with any 9, 3 or pocket pair thinking they have a shot of the pot by the turn.

Also, the action isn't that inconsistent with whiffing the check-raise on the flop and then betting the turn, so I'm not sure it smeells that badly of a bluff.

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You're not calling with a 9? Opponents are going to recognize that the board pairing on the turn is a nice place to bluff. Another 8 hitting on the river only makes them more suspicious.

gilbert · #19 02-03-2006, 05:36 PM

i would bet the flop and check the turn.

The Bride · #20 02-03-2006, 05:43 PM

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I think your turn bet is so clearly a bluff that most sane players are calling down with A- or even K-high. You have to hope to be up against QJ, or QT, and have her fold. But I don't bluff nearly enough on the river.

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I couldn't call this down with K-high. Not with any 9, 3 or pocket pair thinking they have a shot of the pot by the turn.

Also, the action isn't that inconsistent with whiffing the check-raise on the flop and then betting the turn, so I'm not sure it smeells that badly of a bluff.

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You're not calling with a 9? Opponents are going to recognize that the board pairing on the turn is a nice place to bluff. Another 8 hitting on the river only makes them more suspicious.

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Sorry, this isn't the clearest conversation. What I'm saying, is that if I was my opponent, and I had a K-high, and a player that had bet the turn bet into me again on the river, I wouldn't be able to call it.

In other words, I see the calling range of my river bet, as any A, pocket pair, 9 or 3. The hands I'm folding out are any two overcards that don't include an A (i.e. I can't see him calling with K high), possibly offsuit, but his range would be more largely suited (hearts/spades). Am I making more sense?