A river problem

[tiltaholic]

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also, if you're going to suppose he can have AQ, then I think he might also have TT just as much, and I think betting the river is better then too.

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If he has TT, he is betting when checked to. Will he raise if bet to? I do not know. (Also, would he not 3-bet the turn?)

The real question is how often will he value bet AK (or AQ if he has it) versus how often will he make a crying call with JJ (and KK, though that is a pretty certain call). You may be completely right: betting is better. But it is closer than you all are implying.



In fact, I did bet and got raised. Anyone for a 3-bet? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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i think you are right about him 3 betting the turn with TT. oops.

my point about bringing TT into the discussion is that on the river i am thinking about this in terms of getting 1 or 2 bets, and maybe zero bets from him as opposed either 0 or 2 bets, and maybe 1 (if he folds to the CR).

i don't think you can 3 bet the river if you are still putting him on JJ+ and realistically discounting AQ.

[davelin]

I completely disagree that we will win 2 bets 50% of the time if we check this river.

[Octopus]

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"waiting for the turn" in this situation would be be leading the flop and only calling the raise in order to checkraise the turn.

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You are right, of course. My play = no good. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Octopus]

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I completely disagree that we will win 2 bets 50% of the time if we check this river.

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Very well, I agree. But ... How often will AK bet? How often will JJ call? I think reasonable estimates of these make betting and checking close.

[davelin]

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I completely disagree that we will win 2 bets 50% of the time if we check this river.

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Very well, I agree. But ... How often will AK bet? How often will JJ call? I think reasonable estimates of these make betting and checking close.

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Let's say he has AA, betting/calling is better than check-raising here (assuming you don't fold to the eventual 3-bet).

AK is calling a decent percentage of the time here (call this A). AK isn't betting a high percentage of the time (B). Although B nets you 2 bets, I don't think 2B > A so betting looks better here.

JJ and something worse - I don't think they bet here very often, they probably don't call very often so it's pretty much a wash here. Although if JJ called your turn check-raise there's somewhat a chance you've "tied" him to the pot and will get him to call.

So that's my rationale for betting here. AK just doesn't bet and call a raise enough for me not to bet this river.

[bbbushu]

i originally typed that i would encourage the three-bet because although villain might have AA (we'd know better if we'd check/raised the flop or collected information at some other point in the hand) the Ace on the river means s/he's actually more likely to have KK (3 combos to 6 combos).

then i realized that s/he raised our ass even though the ace came which means although a few hands call our three-bet (AQ, AK and possibly KK) it looks more likely that we'll hafta call a cap and lose to AA.

maybe not, though, i'm torn because AQ makes a lot of sense, here, too.

lol, sorry for not concluding, maybe i'll come back to this one,
bbbushu

[Shillx]

Octopussy,

Check/raise the flop dude. Waiting for the turn is the fishy play in big pots...especially with the nuts. Total action killer.

Another way to play it is to bet the flop, call a raise if it comes and then bet the turn. This is how an expert might play it but this isn't the board that it is most effective on. If the flop were JT5 and you had a set of tens or jacks it would almost certainly be the right way to play it.

[NIX]

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In fact, I did bet and got raised. Anyone for a 3-bet? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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I don't 3bet. Three combos of AA left, one combo of AQ (maybe zero of AQs, I don't know), and I'm not sure how often he will raise AK here. Might be weak/tight, but I just call.

Edit: Yeah, good call Shillix. Three AQ combos, one or zero AQs combos. Still doesn't change my mind though.

[Shillx]

He almost never has AK on the river. There are 3 ways to have AA and 3 ways to have AQ. I don't see how you can put a 3-bet in now. You underplayed your hand but the check/raise nullified that. I doubt that he has AQ as often as AA in this spot and even so you are even money on the 3-bet but will lose when you get 4-bet by AA.

[cold_cash]

Isn't this a pretty straight-forward case of 1 or 2, not 0 or 3 on the river?