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#11
11-22-2006, 08:18 PM
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Re: tomlinson under 32.5 TD rush/rec
Dali,
I think that TDs are also influenced by outside things such as your offense and who defenses key on etc. This can alter your ability to produce touchdowns. It's not like walks in baseball or strikeouts where it pretty easily recognized as %s. 
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#12
11-22-2006, 08:28 PM
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Re: tomlinson under 32.5 TD rush/rec
[ QUOTE ]
Dali, I think that TDs are also influenced by outside things such as your offense and who defenses key on etc. This can alter your ability to produce touchdowns. It's not like walks in baseball or strikeouts where it pretty easily recognized as %s. [/ QUOTE ] I totally agree. That's part of what I meant with it being such a sporadic event. Plus, the distribution of it would be all over the place. Player TD's are a stat that really can never approch any sort of "long run" analysis.
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#14
11-22-2006, 10:42 PM
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Re: tomlinson under 32.5 TD rush/rec
[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand what you used to get 27 as B/E though. [/ QUOTE ] i ran a cumulative poisson and determined the breakeven touchdown rate as about 10.25 for the remaining six games (using the odds at the time i bet). this works out to a pace of over 27 TD/16 games.
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#15
11-22-2006, 11:41 PM
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Re: tomlinson under 32.5 TD rush/rec
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't it quite likely that SD will be in the race vs. Denver for HFA all the way to the last game of the season? Seems like they might not coast at the end. [/ QUOTE ] Maybe, but we have the tie breaker on them and we beat them on the road, in the home game we'll probably be ~3.5 point favorites. Unfortunately, Indianapolis and Baltimore have big tie breaker edges. Indianapolis has 0 losses in division/conference and Baltimore has a head to head win on us. The likely scenario is that we need to beat Baltimore by a game to capture the #2 seed, so unless Baltimore is 1+ game ahead of us in week 17 or 2 games behind us, ceterus paribus, we won't be resting our starters. That said, there is some chance Tomlinson won't play full games those two weeks, so that favors the under somewhat. Just project the number of games he'll play on average and multiply that by your TD projection/game.
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#16
11-23-2006, 12:06 PM
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Re: tomlinson under 32.5 TD rush/rec
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I don't understand what you used to get 27 as B/E though. [/ QUOTE ] i ran a cumulative poisson and determined the breakeven touchdown rate as about 10.25 for the remaining six games (using the odds at the time i bet). this works out to a pace of over 27 TD/16 games. [/ QUOTE ] Then this would be fine if it were at the beginning of the season, but if you think 10.25 is his expectation for the remaining 6 games, then you think he will have 32.25 for the season, as the first 22 have already happened.
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#17
11-23-2006, 12:09 PM
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Re: tomlinson under 32.5 TD rush/rec
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I don't understand what you used to get 27 as B/E though. [/ QUOTE ] i ran a cumulative poisson and determined the breakeven touchdown rate as about 10.25 for the remaining six games (using the odds at the time i bet). this works out to a pace of over 27 TD/16 games. [/ QUOTE ] Then this would be fine if it were at the beginning of the season, but if you think 10.25 is his expectation for the remaining 6 games, then you think he will have 32.25 for the season, as the first 22 have already happened. [/ QUOTE ] he's not saying he expects tomlinson to get 27 TD's. he expects that in order to get 32.5 he has to play at a pace of 27TDs/16 games.
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#18
11-27-2006, 02:42 PM
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Re: tomlinson under 32.5 TD rush/rec
interesting, line (now +134/-150) is moving towards the under after he gets 2 TD this week. i guess people were expecting more than that against oakland?
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#19
11-27-2006, 02:49 PM
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Re: tomlinson under 32.5 TD rush/rec
[ QUOTE ]
interesting, line (now +134/-150) is moving towards the under after he gets 2 TD this week. i guess people were expecting more than that against oakland? [/ QUOTE ] This week and next are the big ones for his total. Two games where the chargers have a possibility to really blow out the opposition and of course the possibility of injury/sitting/etc.
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#20
11-27-2006, 09:55 PM
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Re: tomlinson under 32.5 TD rush/rec
[ QUOTE ]
interesting, line (now +134/-150) is moving towards the under after he gets 2 TD this week. i guess people were expecting more than that against oakland? [/ QUOTE ] I noticed the same thing. The market expecting him to score 3+ touchdowns, even against Oakland, is absurd.
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