Colts moneyline question

[SonnyJay]

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There's a ton of sharp money on Dallas. This game is definitely BSP vs. sharps, though it really looks like a huge coin flip and the books win.

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How do you know the sharps are putting money on dallas?

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Almost all the sharp picks that I've seen written/published have been for Dallas, FWIW.

I believe that a large part of this is due to the very good Dallas run game going up against the very terrible Indy run D. Also, for all the pub that Indy has received they've been pretty disappointing in a good percentage of the games...say what you will about "coming through when it matters," but they seem to let a lot of teams hang around.

I made a kneejerk bet on Indy at -1 -104 early in the week when I saw the line, and the line's moved in the other direction. I don't hate the wager, I just don't think there's a ton of value in it, if any.

-SonnyJay

[kdog]

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well fezzik has dallas pk as one of his picks. that might make me nervous

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Actually he made it his best bet in the Hilton contest. Only gave it a 1 weight on his official picks though.

[FishHooks]

So why does eveyone like Dallas? In my opinion dallas has to be at their best to beat indy, and how often is dallas at their best.

[Jordan]

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There's a ton of sharp money on Dallas. This game is definitely BSP vs. sharps, though it really looks like a huge coin flip and the books win.

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sharps are sharps for a reason. you and i may not see why dallas is the better bet, but if all the sharp money is on dallas there must be a reason for it. real sharps don't bet without an edge.

[Jack of Arcades]

Dallas is at PK -115 on sportsbook.com 87% of the money has come down on the Colts. Whoever said BSP + Sharps is right on.

[paperchamp]

Whatever the sharps see, I don't see it. Indy has a lot of weaknesses this year but Dallas is not a very good football team. I bet on Indy. Go BSP!

[Lori]

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So why does eveyone like Dallas? In my opinion dallas has to be at their best to beat indy, and how often is dallas at their best.

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This is a must win game for one of these two teams. That team is not the Colts who will have easier spots to clinch their playoff berth. (Assuming they need one more win)
They didn't really care last year when they were 14-0 and I think they'll start playing down even earlier this year.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys need every win they can get. They'll be fired up for this one.

Maybe I read too much into motivation, but my results have changed significantly for the better since I started overrating the effects of 'needing a win'

Lori

[TheRover]

DAL+1 is my biggest bet of the year.

[paperchamp]

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So why does eveyone like Dallas? In my opinion dallas has to be at their best to beat indy, and how often is dallas at their best.

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This is a must win game for one of these two teams. That team is not the Colts who will have easier spots to clinch their playoff berth. (Assuming they need one more win)
They didn't really care last year when they were 14-0 and I think they'll start playing down even earlier this year.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys need every win they can get. They'll be fired up for this one.

Maybe I read too much into motivation, but my results have changed significantly for the better since I started overrating the effects of 'needing a win'

Lori

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Teams are always fired up to play the Colts the same way they get fired up to play the Steelers or the Patriots. Everybody brings there best game when they play the best.

I can't see the Colts letting up any considering that there are plenty of 7-2 teams that could compete for home-field in the playoffs (which is very important for the Colts, they really don't want to go to New England or Denver in the freezing cold).

[tomdemaine]

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DAL+1 is my biggest bet of the year.

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How often does the one point come into play that you should take this instead of the moneyline?