AA on same-suit board

[orange]

Raise flop plz.

[matrix]

Nut overpair + nut flush draw = happy to play for stacks.

It's not like we have a big stack - we can reload and have a bigger one.

raise flop - raise turn and if he's still there call the river.

[giant sand]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise flop plz.

[/ QUOTE ]

I take the point that raising the flop makes the hand easier to play, because villain has to define his hand. But if I play for stacks he'll only call if he's ahead. The best-case scenario is 15 outs (I doubt he'll call a big raise with top pair).
I was all set to call the River, but the J was a nightmare card. That said, I should have probably called anyway getting 3:1.

[Nielsio]

As played, call the river. Raise more pre.

[Yahivin]

[ QUOTE ]

Getting Villain to fold two pair is hardly a bad result.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're a 51% favorite against two pair, so yes, it is a bad result. You want to be all-in against two pair here.

I'd PSR the flop with the intention of pushing to a 3bet (really depends on your read and what you know about hands he'll do this with). Worst case he has a flush or a set, were're about 33% to win against a flush or a set so it would be a small mistake. More likely though, he could have KdQ, and be betting his dominated draw + dominated top pair. If this guy is very aggressive and plays his draws hard, or if he plays hard with mediocre hands on scary boards then you need to give him the tough decisions. If he's a smart lag (or weak when people play back strong enough) and capable of making laydowns then he *might* drop a baby flush or low set if your image is tight enough. He doesn't need to call with 2-pair or less, fold a baby flush, or be on a dominated semi-bluff very often to make pushing +EV, or at least > calling station. Look at KdQ (or hands like it) through a lags eyes: it's the NUTS, TPGK + 2nd nut flush draw!

Think about it the other way, if we don't get it all in on this flop what options are better? We can call and wait for a diamond, but if a diamond hits on the river we've broadcasted our hand and opp has an easy c/f. If no diamond comes, or even if we improve to a set, then we have a very tough calling decision on the river, potentially a much bigger mistake than getting it in on the flop, we can call and be wrong for a $30 mistake, or fold and be wrong for a $96 mistake, and we have no way of knowing anything about which we should do because we have gained no information about his hand by calling on every street.

NH Villian.

[ValarMorghulis]

"You're a 51% favorite against two pair, so yes, it is a bad result. You want to be all-in against two pair here."

Totally wrong. Do you see why?

[Yahivin]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you see why?

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess you mean that you'd win more if he folded two pair on the flop, but you'd still be making money if he called you. So if I knew he had two pair 100% I'd push, because he'd be most likely to lay it down to a bigger bet and if he called anyway I'd still be making money.

So I guess you want the hardcore version of the math:

H = Opponent's range of hands
x = probability opponent will fold
p(h) = probability that opponent has hand h.
Eq(h) is your equity versus hand h
S(Each h element of H)[p(h)] = 1

POT = pot you win if opponent folds, including your raise and call of any previous raise of opponents
RAISE = How much opponent has to call
S is summation

<font color="red">EV of Raising All in = -RAISE + S(Each h element of H)[p(h)*(p(x|h)*POT + (1 - p(x|h))*(POT+RAISE)*Eq(h))]</font>

p(x|h) is probability that opponent will fold hand h
1 - p(x|h) is probability that opponent will call with hand h because he has to either call or fold
When he calls with hand h (1 - p(x|h) you win the pot and the raise that opponent called (POT + RAISE) multiplied by your equity vs that hand Eq(h) i.e. (1 - p(x|h)*(POT + RAISE)*Eq(h)

So the formula says that you pay RAISE amount of money up front, it leaves your stack and goes into the pot. You win POT whenever your opponent folds (you get your raise back and any money that was there to begin with). You win your share (equity) of of the pot + what opponent pays to call whenever he calls.