how much to bet

[dstraff1]

I would definately call here. It looks like you could have played this like a semibluff on the turn with a flush draw, then value bet out accordingly on the river. His lower full is no good. Is this good thinking?

[abrash]

Do not discount that a certain percentage of the time villain will decide to get tricky with A2 on the turn. When you "hit" your flush on the river he will c/r for value. Call- do not fold- because you are WA/WB.

[not_da_nizzles]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok so I was hoping to get some feedback before I posted this, but here goes. On the river, I folded with $765 behind, having invested nearly half my stack, getting basically 3-1 on my call with the 4th nuts in hand. Thoughts?

Hero bets $300</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $1237</font>, Hero folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have led river for $400-$450 and gleefully called his all-in. You likely gave the pot to A2 or a flush.

mj

[roo400]

How can you fold that river, at first I thought the board wasn't paired so it was enough to make me fold. But you just can't fold as QQ AA are raising preflop and even if you know MP2 can be tricky and limp with those hands, you have the odds to call.
Probability of folding this river = 0%

[RED FACE]

The more I look at this the more I think you're behind.

Tight rockish villain doesn't have any A2 here imo. He can limp AA pre and given the board and action it fits as does 22. What doesn't fit is AK and prob AQ as they most often raise pre (and AQ doesn't call the turn cr often imo). A hand like JKspades doesn't call the flop bet imo so he doesn't just have a flush draw on turn. He bet and called the turn cr in position. This either means a draw w top pair or a huge hand. He could play like this w AJspades maybe.

So here's his range, AA, 22, AJspades so I think that puts you behind 4 possible combinations and ahead of 1. River you'd have to call 937 for 2197 I think, so, good fold but I couldn't have done it. If you can put him on AKspades as well then it's very close.

If I had played this I wouldn't have thought it through and I would've decided I'm not folding so I just want to get called as much as possible by hands I beat so I at first thought to bet $400.

[pheasant tail (no 18)]

You say he is rockish. Based on this I think you can eliminate AA. Would he really limp pf w/ AA in position after several limpers?

No way he made it to river w/ QQ--no way if your read is accurate.

22, the other hand that beats you seems unlikely. Flopping bottom set in position w/ 4 people putting in $30 begs for a big raise 99% it seems to me.

I think he had Ax of spades or A2 90+%. And getting 3 to 1 this is about the easiest call I can imagine short of a lock.

That said, I think your river bet should be a bit higher. If he called your turn bet, he either was on the come and made it or had a full house already and will call.

I wonder why you checked the flop if you are only going to call after every one else calls. I think a raise is in order and would like to see more views on this street.

[wheatrich]

[ QUOTE ]
Would he really limp pf w/ AA in position after several limpers?


[/ QUOTE ]

Never fails to surprise me when I see this.

The river fold was awful--if he's got 22/AA/QQ he's just going to have to show me it.

[RED FACE]

[ QUOTE ]
You say he is rockish. Based on this I think you can eliminate AA. Would he really limp pf w/ AA in position after several limpers?

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, I thought he was first limper, not second. This reduces the likelyhood of AA very significantly imo.

[iceman5]

[ QUOTE ]
Do not discount that a certain percentage of the time villain will decide to get tricky with A2 on the turn. When you "hit" your flush on the river he will c/r for value. Call- do not fold- because you are WA/WB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, Ive found that after the river hits and there are no more cards coming, you will be way ahead or way behind almost every time. LOL

By the way, no way in hell I fold this

[RDWallace]

[ QUOTE ]
You have the 2nd nuts here. AA and QQ should be eliminated from the equation. Nobody would play AA so weakly and nobody would calls 250 on the turn with QQ. Only 22 has you beat.

I bet raiser has A2 Q2 or flush
You must be playing too high if you can't CALL ALL IN on this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand the argument, but do you seriously think it is possible a tight rockish player has Q2 here? He doesn't. A spade flush looks possible, but in this spot villain knows that a river raise with a flush is likely only to be called when behind. A2 is highly unlikely--a player who hardly ever deviates from standard lines will almost always raise this flop in position with two pair. QQ is impossible, I agree. AA is extremely unlikely. Simply put, on the river I felt that there was only one hand villain could possibly hold, that this was the most unlikely hand statistically didn't deter me from following my read. I guess the broader point of this post is when must we defer to pot odds/hand range statistics and ignore our intuitions and logical reasoning?